Camden Depot

Jason Hammel Will Likely Not Throw His FIP

2012-02-15T06:02:00.000-05:00

One of the interesting aspects of the Orioles deal with the Rockies is that they exchanged one pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie, who is one of the more exceptional pitchers in performing better than his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) would indicate for another, Jason Hammel, who is one of the most consistent pitchers who does not match his FIP. As I wrote in the previous Hammel and Guthrie column, it may be that both pitchers affect BABIP and the quality of the contact. That would not be something FIP would be able to use.

For those who are unaware of FIP, it is a statistic that Tom Tango devised based on Voros McCracken's seminal work on what parts of the game a pitcher significantly affects. It uses the following formula:

FIP = constant + ((13*HR) + (3*(BB + HBP - IBB)) - (2*K)) / IP

If you want to napkin scratch it, the constant is 3.2. However, if you want to be more accurate then you use the following formula:

constant = (league average FIP) - (league average ERA)

This constant is used to give FIP a closer look to ERA. That way it is easier for the audience to understand FIP as it is translated to our understanding of ERA. As we have seen, there is good evidence that some pitchers can actually affect the quality of contact. It does not appear to alter the usefulness of FIP for a large majority of pitchers, but FIP does appear to consistently over or under measure some pitcher's performance.

Two lists are presented below. The first consists of the ten pitchers over the past five seasons who logged over 500 IP and have outperformed there FIP the most. The second list is the top ten of those whose FIP indicates a much high performance level than what actually transpired. Jeremy Guthrie was the 6th best at outperforming his FIP. Jason Hammel was the 3rd worst against his FIP. This does not mean that Guthrie is good and Hammel is bad. It means that FIP does a poor job with either of these pitchers. FIP pretty much says that the typical pitcher with Guthrie's walks, home runs, hit by pitches, intentional walks, and strikeouts should do much worse than he actually does. I think this probably means he does a better job than most pitchers in inducing poor quality contact. FIP says that a typical pitcher with Jason Hammel's walks, home runs, hit by pitches, intentional walks, and strikeouts should do much better than he actually does. Conversely, it seems that batters get better quality contact on batted balls.

Pitchers who have overperformed their FIP from 2007-2011:

1. Johan Santana Twins/Mets -0.68 ERA - FIP
2. Armando Galarraga Tigers/Diamondbacks -0.66
3. John Lannan Nationals -0.60
-. Trevor Cahill Athletics
5. Joe Saunders Angels/Diamondbcks -0.58
6. Jeremy Guthrie Orioles -0.56
7. Kyle Kendrick Phillies -0.54
8. Tim Hudson Braves -0.53
-. Shaun Marcum Blue Jays/Brewers
10. Bronson Arroyo Reds -0.49

Pitchers who have underperformed their FIP from 2007-2011:

1. Luke Hochevar Royals 0.96 ERA - FIP
2. Ricky Nolasco Marlins 0.79
3. Jason Hammel Rays/Rockies 0.69
4. Francisco Liriano Twins 0.68
5. Kyle Davies Braves/Royals 0.58
6. Zach Duke Pirates/Diamondbacks 0.45
-. Jorge De La Rosa Royals/Rockies 0.44
8. Kevin Slowey Twins
9. Jeff Francis Rockies/Royals 0.42
10. Brian Bannister Royals 0.39

It has been suggested before that perhaps discrepancies between FIP and ERA could be explained by poor infielding or outfielding. Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Slowey give us a solid comparison as they appear on either list and we can compare ground ball and fly ball rates. Santana outperformed his FIP and had a 37.6% ground ball rate and a 42.7% fly ball rate. Liriano and Slowey underperformed against their FIP. Liriano had a 47.0% ground ball rate and a 35.1% fly ball rate. Slowey had a 31.6% ground ball rate and a 47.9% fly ball rate. Santana's rates fall right in the middle of them, so this simple comparison does not implicate infield or outfield defense affecting the FIP discrepancies.

Jorge Arangure Jr. on the Orioles' International Effort

2012-02-14T05:47:00.000-05:00

A little less than a year ago I read an article Jorge Arangure, Jr. wrote on Andres Reiner and his role in helping the Tampa Bay Rays establish themselves in Brazil. What struck me most about the article was this passage:

Even harder to believe is that the Rays have so far spent zero dollars on the construction of the academy [in Brazil near San Paulo]. The 2.5MM project has been subsidized by both federal and local funds. Tampa Bay's only financial commitment is for the upkeep of the academy, which could be anywhere from 500k to 1MM per year, for the next five years. Tampa Bay won't even have to spend a dime on players' medical care since all Brazilians are covered through the country's universal health care system.

I do not believe the Orioles have established an academy in any country other than the Dominican Republic.

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In light of Dan Duquette's effort in acquiring international talent, I decided to ask a few writers, well-versed in these areas, to share some of their thoughts. Yesterday, I posted an interview with Yoo Jee-ho on the recent troubles experienced by the Orioles when they signed an amateur without informing Korea's amateur governing body, the Korean Baseball Association.

Today, we have the writer mentioned in the short excerpt above, Jorge Arangure, Jr. He currently is on ESPN's international soccer coverage, but was on the international baseball circuit before then and still dabbles on that subject. Those with with a steel trap for a memory will recognize him as a former baseball writer for the Washington Post covering the Orioles.

Jon Shepherd: What do the Orioles need to do to make it have a dependable international presence and how long does it realistically take to accomplish that?

Jorge Arangure Jr.: For one, they need to have consistent leadership in that area. For a few years now, they've shuffled around several people with little success. The Fred Ferreira hire probably solves that problem, but you have to wonder whether Ferreira is so far removed from the current Latin American scene that it ends up hurting the team's efforts rather than helping them. A lot has changed in how players are signed in Latin America since the days when Ferreira first stepped foot on the island.

One thing you can't do is simply spend to make the proverbial "statement." I don't think that really works. Several teams have done it and not accomplished anything out of it. What I'd do is increase the team's scouting presence in the DR. For a while, the Orioles have relied on the same group of scouts in the area. That has to change.

I still have my doubts as to whether Peter Angelos really believes in that market. The Orioles have never signed a high-profile, big-name international player. I'm just not sure Angelos likes the risk that comes with that market.

JS: Andres Reiner provided the acclaimed model for acquiring talent out of an emerging market by establishing an academy in Venezuela for the Astros. Upon leaving the Astros, he set the foundation of a similar plan for the Rays to find useful players in Brazil. So far, the Orioles appear to be taking a different path by holding try outs and plucking players who perform well. For a team that is not incredibly cash flush, which approach makes more sense for them?

JA: Well I'd argue with the point that the Orioles aren't flush with cash. I think they are a pretty good revenue team. They simply choose not to spend it in the Latin America area. Having said that, I believe the Orioles have enough money to try both methods. I'd say the Rays vision for Brazil is highly ambitious. It takes a very organized team to pull it off. Everything we know suggests the Rays are that type of team. Everything we know about the Orioles suggests they are not.

JS: The Orioles have been involved in a fiasco by signing a Korean high school player without notifying the country's ruling body. Why do you think this event has caused more of an uproar than when the Red Sox signed Junichi Tazawa from NPB?

JA: Most importantly, you're talking about two different countries. Tazawa is Japanese, so that's an entirely different baseball federation. The problem is that the Orioles either (a.) Didn't know the rules in Korea, which is troubling in itself because it could suggest that Duquette and the older scouts he's hired will have some catching up to do in regards to learning the regulations of each country, which could essentially back track their hunt for international talent; or (b.) they knowingly broke the rules, which of course is troublesome for all other sorts of reasons.

The Red Sox asked for and received permission from the Japanese baseball federation to sign Tazawa after he had graduated. Not only did the Orioles not ask permission, they also signed a player who had not yet graduated from high school, which is a big misstep.

JS: Do you think the prospects and their families potentially think poorly of the Orioles organization, limiting opportunities for the team to acquire talent in the future? Have there been comparable events that happened in Latin America?

JA: I'm not sure this fiasco really hurts the Orioles in the eyes of the players themselves, but it makes them targets in the eyes of the baseball federations. The positive for the Orioles is that this type of system really only exists in Asia. Teams don't have to deal with baseball federations in Latin America.

JS: Based on your knowledge, who is doing the best job attracting and developing international talent? What is this team doing that is so special and remarkable?

JA: I'd say the Rangers are probably at the top of the list. No team spends as much money as they do. But not only are they financially committed to Latin America, they also have the most manpower in the area. It's rare when I make a trip to Latin America and don't see a Rangers scout at a workout. It's rare when I'm in Latin America and I don't see one of their top execs there. They spend the money, but they do so after having done the work.

An Interview with Yoo Jee-ho About the Orioles and South Korea

2012-02-13T05:48:00.000-05:00

Sajik Stadium in Busan

If you have been following the Orioles' signing Kim Seong-Min and that signings' aftermath, you know the name of Yoo Jee-ho. He has been reporting for Yonhap News Agency on how the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), the governing body of two professional leagues in South Korea, and the Korean Baseball Association, the governing body of amateur baseball in South Korea, have reacted to the Orioles not abiding to the agreement in place for MLB teams to sign amateur talent.

Jon Shepherd: How much of a presence does Major LeagueBaseball have in South Korea?

Yoo Jee-ho: A few teams have been sending scouts toKorean high school and college (or university as we’d like to call it here)tournaments in recent years. Some are based in Korea or others may be stationedsomewhere in Asia and travel here for some big tournaments. More young playershave signed with big league clubs in the last two, three years than in the past(almost a dozen since 2009).

As far as helping KBO developing baseballprograms, I am not aware of any MLB involvement in that regard. I personallydon’t see it as something MLB absolutely has to do here. But critics of MLBteams’ signing young Korean prospects may feel differently.

JS: Are certain teams viewed more favorably than others by players and families?

YJ: I am not sure if any one particularteam is more favored than others by players and parents. But I’d imagine it’sprobably the same with kids in other countries dreaming of playing in themajors. They would all want to play for the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or other storiedball clubs. Would young players take less money to play for, say, the Yankees,rather than for the Pirates? I doubt it, and it’s not just the money. I thinkthese players will take any opportunity that they can get to join a majorleague team and have a chance to play in the big leagues someday.

JS: Can you briefly explain what has transpired between KBO, KBA, and theBaltimore Orioles?

YJ: It really is a long story and I willtry to make it short.

The Orioles signed Kim Seong-min to a minor league dealin January. The KBO, which runs the top baseball league here, claimed that theO’s didn’t go through the “status check” as detailed under the KBO-MLB playercontract agreement. An MLB team interested in a Korean amateur or pro must,through MLB commissioner’s office, “check” that player’s status andavailability with the KBO.

If I may digress a bit and delve a littledeeper into this, MLB teams, following the status check, must receive KBO’sapproval to sign an active professional player here. But they can sign amateurplayers as long as they go through the status check. And even KBO officials saystatus checks are just a formality. With pros, KBO can say, “Nope, you can’ttalk to this guy because he’s under contract and his current team doesn’t wantto let him go.” But with amateurs, the most KBO can tell an interested MLB clubis, “He will be eligible for the KBO draft next year. We hope you don’t engage thisplayer.” But that doesn’t prevent the MLB team from signing him. Against this backdrop, the KBO now wants totweak the agreement to ban MLB clubs from signing amateur players at all.

Back to the situation. The KBA, which isthe local baseball governing body, has suspended Kim indefinitely from playingor coaching in Korea, and that was in accordance with a local rule. Underclassmen(student-athletes not currently in the final year of their study, at highschool or college) must not contact domestic or foreign professional teams. InKorea, a new school year starts in March. Kim was just about to enter hissenior year in high school.

The KBA also banned Orioles’ scouts fromattending KBA-sanctioned games, such as national high school and college tournaments.It has also warned that other MLB teams that fail to take proper steps in theirdealing with prospects will have their scouts banned from Korean games.

I think this will definitely affect MLB’s relationshipwith KBO and with Korea as a whole. Other teams must have taken notice of thisdevelopment. KBO and KBA obviously have their own interests, but I think theyhave taken steps that will likely be seen as being too restrictive.

JS: In your opinion, what changes to the existing agreement between KBO and MLBwould be best for the development of baseball as a professional sport in SouthKorea?

YJ: I don’t think banning MLB teams fromsigning Korean amateurs is the answer. MLB wouldn’t agree to this sort ofchange anyway.

Here’s the one change that I think maywork. When a player is drafted by a KBO team outof high school, the player has a one-month window to choose between going tocollege or signing with the KBO team. In my opinion, you can allow MLB teams toengage and possibly sign such players after that one-month period ends. Tamperingwill have to be prohibited, of course. KBO teams will reserve the priority tonegotiate and sign such players. So MLB teams will be looking at either a KBOrookie or a college freshman to sign.

It’d be easy for big league clubs to luretop talent by coming in with loads of cash, right? Not so fast. Not everyteenage player will want to go overseas to play for different reasons (fear ofculture shock, language problems, simply wanting to stay home close to family,etc). Plus, top young guns get six figures in signing bonus from KBO teams and MLBteams may or may not want to match that to take them. In other words, if the money is right andthey’d rather stay home, more Korean players than you’d think will choose tostay with the KBO.

This bit of change will mean a limitedwindow for MLB teams to sign. But I think it will work both ways because a)young players, having already been drafted, will have a KBO team to fall backon if talks with MLB teams don’t go well and b) MLB teams will have a betteridea of how much they want to pay players given their draft position (i.e.Should we pay this kid $500,000 when he was only drafted 10^th overallin Korea? Should we spend that money on some other prospect from elsewhere?)

JS: There has been some debate in the UnitedStates as to how good of a player Kim Seong-Min is. Do you have any information on his abilities?

YJ: He had an excellent 2011. Kim pitched 74 2/3 innings in 21 games, won eightgames, and posted an ERA of 1.39. In August, at a national high schooltournament, Kim went 3-0 with a zero ERA and 19 Ks in 22 innings to win theMVP.

Kim was considered the top lefty in highschools over here and since he had another high school season ahead of him(before the Baltimore deal), local scouts felt that Kim could improve even moreand eventually become a first-round draft choice in the KBO. His fastball tops out at about 89-90 milesper hour, and he also throws above-average changeup and curve. Obviously notoverpowering, but he’s got decent command. Any left-hander with his upside andstuff is a valued commodity here, but I myself was surprised to see himsnatched up by a major league team. Maybe the O’s scouts saw something in him.

JS: Will this incident affect the Oriolesability to sign premier players from South Korea?

YJ: For the foreseeable future, absolutely.(Poor Dan Duquette. The guy loves Korean players.) Their scouts are banned fromgoing to Korean games and that will obviously limit their ability to assesstalent here. Duquette has apologized for “unintentional breach of protocol” butI don’t think the KBO is that much interested in apologies. Rather, the KBOwants to change the agreement to at least limit the outflow of young talentfrom here. In a way, the O’s move may affect all MLB teams’ ability to scoutand sign premier young talent in Korea.

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To stay on top of the Kim Seung-min situation and Korean baseball in general, follow Yoo Jee-ho on twitter and at Yonhap News.

Cup of jO's - MiL Position Players Signings

2012-02-12T07:51:00.000-05:00

Here is a quick rundown of the MiL position players the Orioles signed this off season.

Catchers
Zach Booker (26) - Has played six games in three years. He literally is a player-coach.
Allan De San Miguel (24) - An Aussie who has spent his entire career with the Twins. Organizational.
Ronny Paulino (30) - First time in six years that he knows he is heading to AAA.
Dane Sardinha (32) - This is likely his ninth straight year in AAA.

First Basemen
Nick Johnson (33) - One of the best hitting prospects in the last 15 years, injuries derailed career. Overcoming wrist injury.
Jeff Larish (30) - Strong AAA bat that silences in the Majors.

Second Basemen
Travis Adair (24) - Show a good bat in high A, but struggled mightily in AA and cut by Texas.

Shortstop
Carlos Rojas (28) - Spent last four years in Orioles organization providing AA and AAA depth.
Steve Tolleson (28) - Solid utility bat who will likely appear in Baltimore at some point this year.

Third Basemen
Matt Antonelli (26) - A once promising prospect, Antonelli signed a MLB deal thanks to his MiL OBP.

Outfielders
Scott Beerer (29) - Pitcher turned hitter due to arm issues, shows some contact and power skills.
Antoan Richardson (28) - Plus speed and decent OBP skills.

Cup of jO's: Orioles Pitcher Whiff Rates

2012-02-11T06:15:00.000-05:00

Another short post today...the following graph depicts the swing and miss rates for batters when they choose to swing at a specific pitch. The pitchers included below are on the Orioles 40 man roster and appeared in an MLB game last year. Each line represents 10% whiff rate.

Cup of jO's: Joe Mahoney is Tall

2012-02-09T06:10:00.000-05:00

Sexson shows the benefit of size.

Joe Mahoney is 6'6. That is pretty tall for a first baseman. How tall is it? In the history of the game there have been 10 first basemen who have been 6'6 or taller. Here is that list:

Richie Sexson 14.4 rWAR, 1367 games
Tony Clark 11.8 rWAR, 1559 games
Damon Minor 0.2 rWAR, 136 games
Ron Jackson 0.2 rWAR, 196 games
Cotton Nash 0.0 rWAR, 13 games
Julio Zuleta -0.3 rWAR, 79 games
Desi Wilson -0.4 rWAR, 41 games
Brad Eldred -1.3 rWAR, 85 games
Don Gile -1.3 rWAR, 58 games
Howie Schultz -2.7 rWAR, 470 games

This list in and of itself does not impart a great deal of information about how successful Joe Mahoney could be. Nick wrote this on Mahoney this past fall:

Joe Mahoney is a bat-first corner defender likely to end-up at first base or designated hitter, full time. He has some length to his swing, a not-insignificant leak entering his weight transfer and a moderate to heavy backside collapse, depending on the at bat. Prognosis? It's unlikely contact will be Mahoney's strong suit, and he could be quickly exposed at the Major League level, if not Triple-A. He projects as a bench bat or Four-A player.

In discussions about Joe Mahoney entering his age 25 season and how he has not yet been able to tap into his power potential, it has been argued that players with such immense height require extra development time in order to be able to successful control the strike zone. However, I am not so sure about that. Richie Sexson established himself as a big league player at the end of the 1998 season at the age of 23. He really did not harness his power stroke until he was 22. Tony Clark established himself in 1996 as a 24 year old. Clark's power emerged as a 22 year old.

I think it is fair to say that of the players of his dimensions who have been successful, Mahoney is two to three years behind them. That said, I am not sure that grouping players on the extreme ends of height is a useful exercise. It is more prudent to stick to traditional scouting on this one and it pretty much says something similar, which is that Joe Mahoney is likely to have more in common with Julio Zuleta than Richie Sexson.

Cup of jO's: 2012 Composite Orioles Prospect Rankings

2012-02-08T06:26:00.000-05:00

It has gotten to that point in the year when we can do some composite rankings. I decided to throw this together when we had a question on Joe Mahoney and how the Depot is not very high on him. Mahoney certainly is an interesting player. There seems to be a dichotomy between the two national ranking sources I used (Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein) and the two more local sources (Nick Faleris and Tony Pente). Both the local sources do not see Mahoney as a top 20 player whereas Goldstein and BA ranked him 12th and 13th, respectively. Perhaps more importantly is that general consensus that the Orioles system is top heavy like a lollipop. Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado profile as elite talents with Jonathan Schoop as fringe elite.

The rankings below use an average of the four sources rank to determine a mean rank. Any players not found in a particular source's top 15 were considered 'unranked' and assigned a rank value of 20. The column to the left has many scouting reports for the players listed below. Simply click on the name to the left.

2012 Orioles Composite Prospect Rankings

1. Dylan Bundy
Mean - 1; Low - 1; High - 1
2. Manny Machado
    Mean - 2; Low - 2; High - 2
3. Jonathan Schoop
    Mean - 3; Low - 3; High - 3
4. Nicky Delmonico
    Mean - 5; Low - 4; High - 6
5. Parker Bridwell
    Mean - 6; Low - 4; High - 7
6. L.J. Hoes
    Mean - 6.25; Low - 5; High - 10
7. Jason Esposito
    Mean - 6.75; Low - 5; High - 8
8. Dan Klein
    Mean - 8.75; Low - 8; High - 10
9. Bobby Bundy
    Mean - 10.25; Low - 4; High - unranked
10. Clayton Schrader
    Mean - 13; Low - 9; High - unranked
11. Xavier Avery
    Mean - 13.25; Low - 8; High - unranked
12. Michael Wright
    Mean - 14.25; Low - 10; High - unranked
13. Eduardo Rodriguez
    Mean - 14.5; Low - 11; High - unranked
14. Ryan Adams
    Mean - 15.25; Low - 9; High - unranked
15. Glynn Davis
    Mean - 15.5; Low - 9; High - unranked

A couple quick notes:

There is apparently industry agreement on the first three talents: Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop
The most volatile ranking is Bobby Bundy who was ranked as high as fourth (by Nick Faleris) and unranked by Baseball America.

Jason Hammel is Jeremy Guthrie

2012-02-06T19:38:00.001-05:00

A 5 point ERA isn't good enough to be a competitive big league pitcher and we've got numerous pitchers on the roster in that area.

Dan Duquette said that in the presser that also announced that he traded Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. That statement was not in reference to Guthrie who crossed over the threshold to 5.04 in 2009. It was likely a shot at Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, and Tommy Hunter. It was also not likely in reference to the newly acquired Jason Hammel who has a career 4.99 ERA (h/t Mike Bonsiero). However, that is just so much of a near coincidence that I had to mention it.

Although I do not believe they will perform equally, the main bet here is that Jason Hammel and Jeremy Guthrie are not all that different from each other.

                            rWAR     fWAR
Jason Hammel     5.5              8.8
Jeremy Guthrie 8.9              5.8

After seeing these numbers one might ask first: how are rWAR and fWAR different? Well, rWAR uses total zone data and is based on the concept that the pitcher is responsible for BABIP. The other method assumes that the way to measure pitching is by normalizing in the form of Defense Independent Pitching Statistics. Using that frame of reference, fWAR probably hurts him due to Guthrie's tendency to give up fly balls and home runs while rWAR considers him to be responsible for generating a lower BABIP. Hammel is benefited by fWAR for his K rate and low walks (last year through was not kind) while rWAR thinks he was a bit hittable. If you are a staunch believer in pitchers controlling their BABIP fate (even in lieu of the strikeouts that typically relate to low BABIP) then you are likely to think that Guthrie is an above average pitcher who is worth 10MM. If you are a fWAR guy, then you might think Guthrie is average to below average and worth about 7MM. Strangely, that was basically the difference between the two arbitration values for Guthrie. In the end, the Rockies signed him to a 8.2MM deal while the Orioles have Hammel and Lindstrom for 8.5MM.

I tend to lean more in the fWAR direction, but am open to the idea that we know very little about how pitchers affect how well balls are hit. In other words, I see no issue in weighting rWAR and fWAR equally for pitchers. This would suggest that, yes, Jason Hammel is worth as much as Jeremy Guthrie. However, Hammel's 2011 gives me some pause and it probably would for anyone who fully embraces fWAR. In 2009 and 2010, Hammel enjoyed 3.9 fWAR each year. Last year, it dropped to 1.0. Much of this was due to his strikeout rate dropping 30% and his walks jumping up 51%. Meanwhile, rWAR zealots would not be too worried as a drop in BABIP compensated for those and netted him his best rWAR over the last three years with a 2.0. Maybe it is a push.

If you take the above to heart and find Hammel and Guthrie equivalent then a second control year of Hammel and Matt Lindstrom are just gravy. Lindstrom is a 96 mph four seamer and slider guy. He has historically had some trouble with lefties, which makes sense based on the pitches he has. Lindstrom is a solid back end arm and is also under team control for two years.

So...why do I not like the trade if it looks like a push in so many ways?

It kicks the talent can another year. Guthrie's worth has been converted into Hammel and Lindstrom. Hammel's peripherals last year concern me. I am not certain that he all of a sudden gained an ability to depress BABIP rates. I more believe that he has lost his ability to strike batters out. In that regard, I do not see a Guthrie for Lindstrom trade being worthwhile as it places too much value in a somewhat hittable flame thrower. I think this move runs counter to building this franchise into a winner. Young, cost-controlled talent would be preferable even if that talent had a low probability of being a difference maker.

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Addendum

Dan Duquette mentioned that Jason Hammel pitched better away from Coors field and that would enable him to throw 200 IP instead of the 170 IP he has been hitting.

Has Hammel performed better away from Coors' Field?

              Home           Away
2009       5.73              3.13

2010       4.07              5.71

2011       5.20              4.28

What does Manny Ramirez offer the Orioles?

2012-02-05T09:58:00.000-05:00

Watching Manny hit his 500th HR off Chad Bradford

Manny's path has never appeared to make sense to others, but that path has been suggested as perhaps leading through Baltimore. This has resulted in the expected gnashing of teeth. Acquiring Manny would seem familiar with the moves the Orioles have made in the last decade, such as picking over the remains of Sammy Sosa, the second coming of Raffy, and Vladimir Guerrero. All have had Hall of Fame quality careers, but there is not much reason to have thought any of them would be a game changer. Additionally, Manny is Manny. His actions often appear incredibly self-centered and aloof, such as the story of how he once left a game early, took all of the Dominican style food a teammate's mother had made for the team and then replaced it with Italian takeout. That is a weird and wonderful story. You could also go with the whole him refusing to play in 2007. At first look, there does not seem to be much for the Orioles to be interested in him.

Performance Issues

Fifteen players since 1972 have played as designated hitters during their age 40 season with over 100 plate appearances. They break into four easy categories.

Good
Dave Winfield (1992) - 3.7 rWAR
Edgar Martinez (2003) - 3.5 rWAR

Average
Brian Downing (1991) - 2.5 rWAR
Harold Baines (1999) - 2.3 rWAR

Role Player
Jim Thome (2011) - 1.4 rWAR
Paul Molitor (1997) - 1.4 rWAR
Reggie Jackson (1986) - 1.3 rWAR

Replacement Level and Below
Tony Perez (1982) - 0.3 rWAR
Frank Thomas (2008) - 0.0 rWAR
George Brett (1993) - -0.4 rWAR
Matt Stairs (2008) - -0.7 rWAR
Ken Griffey Jr (2010) - -0.8 rWAR
Eddie Murray (1998) - -0.8 rWAR
Hal McRae (1986) - -0.9 rWAR
Dave Parker (1991) - -1.4rWAR

What differs Manny from these players is that he did not see any significant time during his age 39 season with only 17 plate appearances over five games. In fact, it is actually quite rare for any starting caliber player at 1B, LF, RF, or DH to log in less than 50 plate appearances in one season and then come back for another. Since 1991, it has happened twice for players in their 30s. Darren Daulton lost his 1996 season to injury. His OPS+ in 1995 was 101 and it rose to 121 in 1997, which was his final season. Xavier Nady is the other occurrence. He slugged a 127 OPS+ in 2008 for the Pirates and Yankees, lost 2009 to injury, and then hit at a 75 OPS+ clip for the ChiSox in 2010. That is a sample size of two with one doing quite well and the retiring while the other probably should be retired. However, it should be mentioned that most players in their 30s who log less than 50 at bats do not come back the following year.

From the older player who missed a year perspective, Manny does not look like a good buy. ZIPS projects Manny as a 241/342/363 hitter. If such a hitter was able to spend a full 695 plate appearances at that level as a DH, he would have earned near a replacement level with a 0.5 WAR. That is an upgrade from Vlad's 0.1 WAR over 591 plate appearances and 7.6MM. Manny's last full three seasons also show some reason for concern when looking at isolated power (ISO):

2008: .270
2009: .241
2010: .162

That free fall is slightly worse than pre-Oriole Garrett Atkins (.185->.165->.116). Anecdotally, I have rarely seen a three season free fall in ISO turn around 180 degrees.

With this performance history it is difficult to see how a team could offer anything more than a Minor League invite without any promises. The Tampa Bay Rays looked at the same data set, minus the extra year of aging and not playing, and only gave Manny a 2MM MLB contract. They apparently were the only ones interested in promising him a full salary. Tampa Bay also did not have knowledge of the events that would transpire during the 2012 season.

The Suspension and Then it Got Worse

Most players in their 30s who play very little have injuries or performance issues as the cause for the reduction in playing time. Manny's issue was for testing positive for an unnamed (as far as I am aware) performance enhancing drug. It was the second time he had tested positive for a banned substance. He had served a 50 game suspension with the Dodgers in 2009. This being the second time, he was to serve 100 days. Instead of serving that time, Manny retired and fled the lime light. As it was reported, Manny's desire to evade any uncomfortable situations struck his teammates, the media, and the fans as him being extremely selfish and immature. It is the meme that has followed him throughout his playing career.

It got worse in September. Police in Weston, Florida were called to Manny's home. His wife had called and claimed that they were having an argument. That argument resulted in allegedly slapping her, causing her to fall and hit her head on the headboard of their bed. Upon arrival, she told the deputy that she called the police because she feared the situation would escalate. Manny was arrested on the charge of domestic battery. He entered a not guilty plea at a hearing in October. His next court date is schedule March 28.

Conclusion
The Orioles do not have much to gain or lose here. Manny could come to Spring Training, go to court at the end, and do whatever he may plea to while serving out a 50 game suspension (MLB and MLBPA compromise) as technically a minor leaguer. He would then spend a couple weeks in the minors trying to work off the rust. You could expect him in an Oriole uniform in mid-June. That would give him six weeks to show off any hitting ability that could reward the Orioles with a fringe prospect. Again, the best case scenario is that Manny plays six weeks, earns about 300-500k, and nets you a fringe prospect. The worst case scenario is that Manny is awful, but stays on the straight and narrow. This would force the Orioles to cut him and swallow 1-1.5MM.

Signing Manny should not cause a gnashing of teeth. This move would be a far cry from MacPhail's eagerness to send replacement level veterans off with a retirement package. However, I do not see much point in signing a 40 year old who took off last season, is in a downward trajectory, has alienated many of his previous teammates, and has an open court case on the charges of domestic battery.

Brian Roberts is Not a Sunk Cost

2012-02-04T09:18:00.002-05:00

When I start to write about Brian Roberts I think about the article I wrote when he signed his extension. I initially used an aging model I created based on the aging patterns of second basemen. It projected Roberts to be replacement level in 2012 and then performing in 2013 at such a level that he would have had to have been released. That model was run right after his 2008 season in which he performed at an All Star level and could have been considered one of the top second basemen in the game. I hesitated and decided instead to use a model based on middle infield aging. I pulled a punch. The article still stated that Roberts' extension was a poor idea, but it irritates me that I wrote more what I felt than what I thought. Whether good or bad, tick off three years on the clock and it no longer is a concern for me. Well, it is not as much of a concern because part of me still feels bad writing this. I think I have become more hardened as evidence by what I wrote last March on him. I like Brian Roberts. I also think he should be removed from the 40 man roster.

Sunk Cost

Sunk cost is an economic concept that is much ballyhooed and much misunderstood. You may have seen such players as Vernon Wells, A.J. Burnett, or Barry Zito referred to as sunk costs. This is an incorrect application of the term. Off the bat, their contracts would be the sunk cost, not them. Second, the term refers to making a payment that cannot be recovered. The sunk cost fallacy refers to a situation where someone feels too invested having made a sunk cost and throws more money into the effort. Throwing good money after bad idea is considered irrational. Here is an example:

Lets say you bought tickets to take your eleven year old kid or maybe a niece to see Disney Princesses on Ice. Somehow in the few months between buying those tickets and the date of the show, your young blood relative realizes that going to this show will bring about teasing from her friends. At this point, the money has been spent and nothing good will come from it.

Now, that is almost a sunk cost. That example is similar to that of Wells', Burnett's, and Zito's contracts. What would make the above example a true sunk cost is if Disney folds with no show and no refunds. That is a true sunk cost.

The above example is not quite like the Brian Roberts contract situation. More accurately:

Lets say that your niece and maybe even you being nostalgic are looking forward to the Disney on Ice show. You buy your tickets, you eagerly await for the date of the show, you get to the arena, buy your favorite junk food and maybe a souvenir or two, and sit down for the show. Fifteen minutes in to the show both you and your niece realize that this is the opposite of fun and you both are miserable.

This is a sunk cost. You cannot scalp the tickets. What comes next is the interesting part. Having spent money on the show, do you sit and watch the show even though it is not enjoyable? Based on a plethora of studies over the past 20 years, two thirds of you will likely stay put and have a horrible night. The other third will go get ice cream or fudge a couple blocks away at the inner harbor and call it a decent night. Why will the majority stay put? Emotional attachment to cost allocation. This is the Brian Roberts Contract Scenario.

The Man

Brian Roberts has been Mr. Oriole for the 2000s. He shifted from shortstop to second, fought off the more acclaimed Jerry Hairston Jr. (who was then traded for Sammy Sosa), and gave the Orioles the solid kind of lead off hitting that the 1990s Orioles enjoyed from Brady Anderson (minus a little bit of power). His 2005 and 2008 seasons were at very good starting all-star level years. He was exciting on the base paths and always seemed to start a rally with a double in the gap. Roberts has been solid. So solid and so much identified with the Orioles that Andy MacPhail's team extended Roberts a year prior to his free agency to a four year, 40 MM extension. It was a contract that overshadowed the one Orlando Hudson, who slashed 305/367/450 in 2008, signed within a few weeks. That one was for one year and at 3.3MM. During the same period (2010-2013), Hudson will be paid 22MM vs Roberts' 40MM.

While Hudson's skills at second base have deteriorated, he has managed to appear in 245 games over the past two seasons and is expected to be manning second base for the Padres for the next two years. Brian Roberts has been less fortunate. In 2010, the fate of second base aging began to materialize for Roberts. Roberts had issues in Spring Training with abdominal muscle strains and a bad back. These issues continued throughout the season and left him with 59 appearances where he kept up his typical offensive performance. However, his defense looked shaky. This was the first year of his four year extension. In 2011, illness, his back, and concussion symptoms led him to having a choppy Spring Training and only 39 appearances. He was shut down in the middle of May. His issues with concussions have been so bad that he was unable to make it to the 2012 Orioles FanFest. For a player who has done so much for the community, it was surprising he was unable to attend. To expect someone who cannot make a flight and deal with the chaotic nature of FanFest . . . to expect that person to play at a professional level is quite optimistic. Sadly, I think it is clear that Brian Roberts' contract is a sunk cost.

Conceptual Value for a 40th Man

During the off season there is no 60 day disabled list. Roberts must stay on the 40 man roster which effectively makes it a 39 man roster. This issue is relative. The 40th man on any roster is not likely to be of great use to a team, but it does prevent a team from potentially getting looks at certain fringe players in Spring Training. There is benefit to that. There is benefit to having Pedro Florimon Jr on the team. There is benefit to having Kyle Hudson on the team. There is benefit to having Rick VandenHurk on the team. One thing is clear, the team is not losing anyone of great significance. None of these guys will take you anywhere, but the first two provide depth in case of injury. VandenHurk may provide you with a decent enough arm if the Spring proves treacherous for the Orioles' pitchers. Additionally, sometimes a player just sort of figures things out. Simply put, the 40th man is a low probability, low ceiling player.

The difference between Roberts and the 40th man is that the 40th man can actually stand out on the field and potentially do one or two things adequately. Roberts cannot lace up. A year in and still suffering from concussion symptoms is not a promising thing. In baseball, we've seen how concussions have ended Ryan Church's career and have severely impacted Justin Morneau's. In hockey, we have seen what Sydney Crosby is going through. In football, the data is coming out that is yielding more evidence that teams do not adequately protect players from the effects of concussions. This past year, we have even seen reports showing that high school soccer players show some concussion effects in relation to simply heading a ball. It has been truly an amazing and terrifying time these past few years with understanding the chronic effects of these kind of brain injuries.

That said, the comparison between Roberts and a 40th man is not truly a fair comparison. The more fair comparison would the 40th man vs. a MiL invite who becomes the 40th man. The difference between those two is not truly great. They are likely the same person. Pedro Florimon, Jr. was put on waivers, claimed by the Twins, put on waivers, passed through, and is now in the Twins' minor league system. Kyle Hudson is a non-roster invite to the Rangers' camp. Rick VandenHurk is likely to find something similar somewhere. It appears that the idea that Roberts is preventing roster flexibility is likely one that is true in conceptual terms, but not in true application.

Brian Roberts is Not a Sunk Cost

My analytical side is informing me that Brian Roberts' contract is a sunk cost that does not affect the team to a significant degree (meaning significant in an abstract way). However, even though the contract is a sunk cost, Brian Roberts is not. Roberts has value to this organization in other potential capacities. The problem I see with the current situation is that Roberts is a great person who has done wonderful things for the organization and the community. The contract is an unfair burden to place on him because it carries with it the expectation that he needs to get back in shape to play. The best thing I can see doing would be to buy him out and give him a place in Brady Anderson's chain of command in player development. From all accounts, Roberts is has a strong work ethic when it comes to fitness, he comes from a committed baseball family, and he seems to enjoy Baltimore. It would be solid to keep him in the organization.

In terms of a buyout, you can go two ways. Pay him now in a lump sum or convert it over to a long term deferred deal. If he trusts his investment team, you could probably buy him out now for 18MM instead of 20MM over two years. That appears somewhat marginal in terms of cost cutting. A long term deferred deal could look like 3MM/year over ten years or 2MM/year over twenty years. The long term deal would be useful to the club in the near term, saving the team 7-8MM a season. That is money that could be well spent on player development or even an average player. I think this is a solution that would benefit both parties.

Of course, this discussion is unimportant if while on the disabled list with concussion issues the insurance plan the team has on him is favorable. If insurance is paying the club anything more than 20% if Roberts' salary then it makes sense just to keep him on the 40 man roster. The terms of such an arrangement may be so that Roberts cannot do other things that would be helpful such as instructing players or scouting. If that is the case, then a buyout between the Orioles, Roberts, and an insurance company would make it far more difficult.

Orioles sign Jeff Larish

2012-02-03T19:07:00.002-05:00

According to a tweet from Oakland Athletics beat reporter Jane Lee, former A's first basemen and DH, Jeff Larish, 29 years old, has signed a minor league deal with the Baltimore Orioles.

Larish, who hasn't played in the majors since 2010, has batted a career .224/.308/.380 with in three seasons with the Detroit Tigers and the A's.

Lee mentioned in her tweet that Larish announced his signing with the Orioles via his Facebook page.

Editor -
He has played 331 games at AAA with a slash of 269/359/475. Last year, Larish played half a season at Lehigh, the AAA affiliate for the Phillies. In July 2011, Larish broke his leg and tore several ligaments in his ankle while trying to score from second.

In what cities could MLB expand?

2012-01-30T06:00:00.000-05:00

Previously, I touted the New York metro area and Connecticut as expansion areas. Those arguments relied on a few difficult to foresee events: (1) the New York and Boston teams agreeing with new encroachment, (2) a multi-stadium home format would work until a real stadium could be built, and (3) proper infrastructure exists to support a new stadium. The main problem with that idea was that there is not an overwhleming demand of locals to bring more baseball into those areas. That means that no one could mount enough of a cause to get ballot measures passed to appropriate money to build a stadium. Even if private funds were put in place, public funds would need to be tapped to put improvements on infrastructure to get people in and out of games. Infrastructure is the main issue that is killing the Rays down in Tampa. It is just so difficult to get to their stadium if you live in Tampa. Connecticut and upper New Jersey have similar issues.

If those funds could not be put in place then MLB would wind up having teams that floated around the existing baseball stadiums as well as barnstorming AAA and AA stadiums in a sort of boutique fashion. That idea might be too different for some people. Think of it this way, if the Bowie Baysox stadium was dressed up with a 10 MM renovation, would you pay $50-150 instead of the normal $8-75 you pay at Camden Yards? Would that level of intimacy work? It would be a major risk.

In light of that, I decided to look at more traditional locations for expansion. The following list was devised based on what cities were previously entertained with expansion and relocation opportunities. For statistics, I will be using the same method I used when suggesting that you actually can argue the Orioles are a small market team.

Charlotte
TV Market - 25th
Radio Market - 24th
Population - 731k; 18th in US
GDP - 103MM; 2.6% growth

Charlotte has several things going for it as a potential MLB city. First and foremost, it has a modern stadium in Bank of America Stadium, home of the Jacksonville Jaguars. This provides a large capacity structure where a team could eek out a few seasons before a sufficient stadium could be constructed. Not all stadiums can house a football team, I am assuming this one can. Second, Charlotte has a corporate culture. Seven fortune five hundred companies call Charlotte their home. This includes Bank of America (134.2B revenue; 9th overall), Nucor (15.8B; 157th), Duke Energy (14.3B; 173rd), Goodrich (7.0B; 337th), Sonic Automotive (6.9B; 339th), SPX (4.9B; 460th), and Ruddick (4.4B; 498th). Additionally, 50th ranked Lowe's (48.8B) is a half hour up I-77 in Mooresville, NC and Family Dollar (7.9B; 302nd) is 20 minutes away in Matthews, NC. This means that there is a strong corporate base to buy season tickets in the area. Charlotte's TV and radio market is better than five current MLB teams each. It has a strong population that is steadily growing and a growing GDP.

Indianapolis
TV Market - 26th
Radio Market - 40th
Population - 820k; 12th in US
GDP - 92.8MM; 3.6% growth

Indianapolis share a few things in common with Charlotte. It has a similar TV Market, a slightly larger population, a similar growth in commercial products, and a football stadium that should be able to be converted into a temporary home for a baseball club. However, there have been yearly cries by the ownership of the Colts about how Indianapolis is a not a cash flush area. It may just be ownership looking for a better deal similar to what Irsay did when he took the Colts out of Baltimore (or when Modell took the Browns out of Cleveland for that matter). One difference between Charlotte and Indianapolis is corporate presence. Indianapolis has two Fortune 500 companies bringing in a revenue of 81.9B within the city limits: WellPoint (58.8B; 42nd) and Eli Lilly (23.1B; 115th). Cummins (13.2B; 186th) is located an hour away in Columbus, IN. Charlotte has corporations headquartered around the city that pull in 2.5 times as much revenue as the ones around Indianapolis. That reduced foundation makes for Indianapolis to be a potentially worthwhile MLB city, but with poorer footing than Charlotte.

Las Vegas
TV Market - 40th
Radio Market - 32nd
Population - 584k; 30th in US
GDP - 80.2B; -1.9% growth

Las Vegas is commonly mentioned as a location for an MLB team either by expansion or relocation. In fact, Bud Selig considered Las Vegas a finalist when determining where to move the Montreal Expos. It sounds like a good idea. Vegas was going through a period of rapid growth until smacked down by the recent economic crush. Lots of tourists with free time visit the city and may be interested in watching a game. The concerns were that the city has a high level of flux, which would make it difficult for a baseball team to take root and there was some concern over the need for gambling establishments to take a major investment in the franchise. Why gambling establishments? There is not much else there in Las Vegas. The city can claim three Fortune 500 corporations: Caesars (8.8B, 277th), Las Vegas Sands (6.9B, 342nd), and MGM Resorts (6.0B, 380th). In addition to a poor corporate presence, Vegas would have the worst TV Market in the game, which is where a lot of the money is at, contracting GDP, and no suitable stadium for a team to begin play. There just is not enough money in the city to prime the pump for a MLB team to move in.

Orlando
TV Market - 19th
Radio Market - 34th
Population - 238k; 79th
GDP - 94.2B; 2.4% growth

Orlando has a few things going for it and a few reasons why it hasn't been tapped for a team. It has a solid low second tier TV Market and the region is rather prosperous. What has hurt the city is that much of the money is in entertainment in the form of all of the amusement parks in the area. As has been shown countless times, baseball teams do not make money for the city as opposed to merely pushing it around a little bit. With the city already being a pilgrimage of the Mouse...there just is not likely to be a major buy in from those group. The only Fortune 500 company headquartered there is Darden Restaurants (7.1B; 332nd). The Citrus Bowl is likely to be the only stadium to be able to be used for baseball until a new one could be built. Finally, Florida seems to be home to two baseball clubs that are not exacting pinnacles of business success. Putting in a third one, two hours from the Tampa Bay Rays may not be the best of ideas.

Portland
TV Market - 21s
Radio Market - 23rd
Population - 584k; 29th
GDP - 121.7B; 4.7% growth

Portland appears like an obvious location for a MLB to sprout up. It has a long history with AAA baseball. It has had a rapidly growing GDP. It is a decent size city with a respectable standard of living. A corporate presence is on the low side, but it does have Precision Castparts (5.5B; 409th) and Nike (19.0B; 135th; 15 minutes away in Beaverton) call it home. Even with this presence, AAA baseball has left the city twice in the past 30 years. That is not a great record. However, I would put it ahead of Orlando and Las Vegas. With Indianapolis it is a question how whether one believes more in corporations and population or media markets and GDP.

San Antonio
TV Market - 36th
Radio Market - 28th (Cinci, Clev
Population - 1.327 MM 7th in US
GDP - 73.6B; 3.0% growth

San Antonio is a promising option, but with a drawback. First with the good news, San Antonio has an immense population that is being poorly served by top tier professional sports. The media market is not great, but has good long term prospects. This region has been a hotbed of growth even during the economic struggles the rest of the United States was facing. San Antonio also has a major corporate presence. The city is home to Valero Energy (86.0B; 24th), Tesoro (20.3B; 128th), United Services Automobile (17.9B; 145th), CC Media Holdings (5.9B; 391st), and NuStar Energy (4.4B; 497th). That is a good group that would help buy up seats and luxury suites. The problem is though that the main stadium available, the Alamodome, was built without the ability to store a MLB field. The structure cannot be retrofitted to accommodate a team either. This means a club would need to have a new stadium waiting for it. The Arizona Diamondbacks accomplished that feat. The Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, and Washington Nationals required an existing stadium. Before them, Seattle and Toronto used preexisting stadiums. Point being, it is uncommon to have everyone in order for a MLB to show up on your doorstep.

Vancouver
TV Market - ~20th
Radio Market - ~42nd
Population - 590k; ~29th
GDP - 83B; 3.0% growth

I have argued before that baseball should move up north again. I think baseball could work in Montreal, but I don't think that will happen any time soon. That city is no longer MLB ready anymore. Vancouver is. Of all of the cities, Vancouver would be the easiest one to move into because of BC Place. BC Place was originally built with the intent of luring a baseball team. That was unsuccessful, but the building has been renovated and is a fairly modern stadium with proper infrastructure in place. It hearkens back to the Tropicana except that it has an excellent location and the stadium has been kept up. Vancouver also boasts a few corporations who would appear on the Fortune 500 if they were in America: Telus (9.6B; 257th), Teck Resources (8.8B; 277th), Jim Pattinson (7.1B; 331st), and Best Buy Canada (5.6B; 404th). That is not a stellar corporate presence, but it is stronger than Portland, Orlando, and Las Vegas. It has a second tier TV market, a third tier population, and a growing economy.

Conclusion

Of these cities, Charlotte is an obvious front runner for an expansion team. San Antonio has a strong foundation, but would need to get enough capital in place to not only buy a franchise, but also develop land for a stadium for the team to play in on day one. That is logistically difficult. Indianapolis has supposedly had issues with the Colts pulling in enough cash, making them threaten to look elsewhere. Portland is an old school favorite, but their difficulties in keeping their AAA clubs cast some doubt and they need a stadium immediately. Orlando and Las Vegas are simply poor fits. Vancouver looks like a decent third tier location with a great stadium situation.

I would probably award Charlotte and Vancouver the teams. I would bump out Vancouver if San Antonio could promise a stadium.

Also of note, with Constellation Energy appearing to be falling under Exelon, Baltimore will have no Fortune 500 companies. Washington DC has seventeen.

Circle the Bases with Peace

2012-01-28T16:49:00.000-05:00

Here at Camden Depot we understand during the week you are busy with work, school, taking the kids to hockey practice, or just don't have time to get to a computer. So at the end of each week we will do a recap and update of the latest Orioles news items.

Early in the week the Orioles went out and addressed their DH position by signing switch hitting utility infielder Wilson Betemit to a multi year deal. As a result of the move the Orioles DFA'd relief pitcher Rick Vandenhurk to make room for Betemit on the 40-man roster.

The Orioles avoided arbitration with utility infielder Robert Andino and signed the Red Sox slayer to a one year deal.

The ball club announced the minor league coaching staffs of all seven Oriole affiliates. Ron Johnson from the Red Sox organization will be the manager of the Norfolk Tides. Johnson as a minor league manager has a record of 1,261-1,262 in 18 seasons. Pitching coach Mike Griffin is back with the Tides for his fifth consecutive season in the organization. Hitting coach will be Denny Walling who was a roving instructor for six seasons. Mike Shires will be the athletic trainer.

Former Tides manager Gary Allenson has been sent down to manage the short-season Class A squad the Aberdeen Ironbirds. Allenson spent five seasons as the skipper for the Tides. The Ironbirds bring in a blast from the past as former Orioles pitcher Alan Mills will be the pitching coach. (Good thing Darryl Strawberry doesn't manage in the Penn League.)

The Bowie Baysox skipper Gary Kendall is back for his second season and his 13th in the system. Field coach Denny Hockling, pitching coach Kennie Steenstra and trainer Aaron Scott will be back for the Baysox.

Class A Frederick and Delmarva return both managers Orlando Gomez and Ryan Minor for their third consecutive seasons.

The Gulf Coast League Orioles return Ramon Sambo for his fifth season as the GCL Birds manager. nd finally Elvis Morel will manage the Dominican Summer League squad.

MASN's Roch Kubatko reported this week that the Orioles will send several representatives from the organization down to the Dominican Republic next week to watch Cuban star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes play. The report also mentioned the O's will take a look at the other Cuban star Jorge Soler.

Kubatko also announced the Orioles signed 18 year old Guatemalan outfielder Andres Aguilar.

And Finally, reports came out this week from local and national reporters that the Orioles would be willing to offer a multi-year deal to free agent starting pitcher Edwin Jackson. Baltimore Sun beat writer Eduardo Encina tweeted on Saturday the O's probably wouldn't go four years with Jackson but would opt to do a three year deal with an option. Jackson, 28, went 12-9 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last season between the White Sox and the Cardinals.

P.S. Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson sustained a fractured clavicle Friday night when he fell from a stage at a benefit at the Seminole Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Fla. Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post reported the story. Robinson was accepting an award where he fell backwards, six feet to the ground. The report says Robinson was scheduled to attend a charity game today benefiting the Joe DiMaggio Children's Hospital but spent the night in the hospital.

O's Kim Sung-min in Dan Duquette's version of Rashomon

2012-01-27T06:08:00.000-05:00

Kim Tebow

Kim Sung-min was signed by the Orioles. That is pretty much all we know for sure. In an apparent ode to Kurosawa's Rashomon we have a South Korean paper, a Baltimore Sun beat reporter, and a national baseball talent writer giving somewhat different accounts of the player.

South Korean Paper
I do not read Korean and the Google translator is confused by a few words. I assume "maximum strength fat guts" means something equivalent to having nerves of steel. I don't know. What we can glean from the article is the outline of a pretty impressive talent. Sung-min is a high school left handed pitcher who has a 89.5 mph fastball. He also has a curve and a "remarkable" circle change. He is listed as 5'10.5 and weighing in at 181 lbs. There is no information on the financials.

The Baltimore Beat
The Sun's Eduardo Encina talked to a team source and came up with the following pitcher. Sung-min at 17 is the best left handed high school pitching prospect in South Korea (which is similar to being the best high school left handed pitching prospect in Rhode Island--that can be quite good and it could be quite poor). He is 5'10 and 180 lbs with a high 80s fastball, an above average 12-to-6 curveball, and an above average change up. They expect him to become 6'1. These pitches are expected to progress as he ages (this means that all three pitches will be plus pitches). He will play a few weeks at the academy in Los Angeles before heading over to the Orioles' facility in Florida.

The National Writer
Keith Law reminds me of Frau Blücher. You mention his name in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area and you will surely hear some snorting and gnashing of teeth. That certainly was the case when the following was written from his twitter account:

The O's gave $550K to a 5'9" Korean HS lefty throwing 80-83 with no feel for a breaking ball. Nice use of savings from cutting pro scouting.

With respect to the Orioles projection of Sung-min growing a few more inches, Law wrote in a chat:

Predicting body development is a big part of scouts' jobs, although it's usually about a frame filling out more than a player growing three freaking inches after his 18th birthday, which is pretty rare. A scout would also want to meet the parents and see how tall they are, how broad, how heavy, etc. I'm much more comfortable looking at a 17-year-old Tyler Skaggs and telling you he'll add velocity because he's tall and thin with broad shoulders rather than looking at a 17-year-old Jarrod Parker and telling you he'll grow from 6' to 6'3" because I like his fastball.

I agree with Law on this last point. Final height determinations are quite difficult and are often guesswork even when you understand family genetics and have a long term growth pattern documented from the player. You could get even more exact with more invasive medicals procedures, but that seems an unlikely scenario for an upstart operation in South Korea. I really do not know if anyone is using that approach.

Conclusion
Like Rashomon, I do not know what the reality is. I am drawn into Encina's article as something I want to be true. Sung-min, a player on a well covered Junior national team, somehow slips through the cracks even though he is a lefty with potentially three plus pitches. Typically, a player like that would be followed by many teams and would be worth a couple million. The South Korean paper appears more tame, but we don't really know if the papers used the same source. Many aspects are similar between the two players with the Baltimore account having a greater eye to the future and what Sung-min could become. Law's account is a dousing of cold water.

In all honesty, all three could be accurate. Law's information could have come from an earlier outing or on one of the player's bad days. The Korean article may be an account from an Orioles' scout highlighting the performance when everything was clicking. The Baltimore Sun account may be a summation of the high points and a focus on the top 1% outcome. When he reports to Florida, we will likely have much of this progressing toward some answers.

Right now, I would not put too much stock in any of these evaluations. How could you?

Os Pitchers, Option Years, and Cuts

2012-01-25T06:13:00.000-05:00

Note: Vandenhurk was on the 40 man roster when this post was written. He was DFA'd for Wilson Betemit.

For this article, I used the information collected by this poster and filling in where I see holes (such as Dana Eveland's absence). I have yet to find a good resource on the internet to figure these things out. However, it appears for the time being that Tom Peace will be working with us at the Depot and providing us transaction information news. We are happy to have him on board and quite happy to more fully cover the Orioles.

I have not compared this year's 40 man roster heading into Spring Training to any other year's, but it feels as if there is a great deal of roster inflexibility this year. This post is to run down the current stable of arms and try to determine how many spots on the team are actually up for competition, who that competition is, and who is most certainly going to be placed on waivers.

Players with Three Options
Jake Arrieta RHP
Arrieta on first glance did not have an incredibly impressive season, but his peripherals look good. Also, if the bone spurs in his arm were hampering him then we may be able to expect even more from him. I do think even though he would be an excellent late inning arm, if he does not earn a spot in the rotation then he is going to Norfolk.

Zach Britton LHP
I cannot imagine Britton not starting with Baltimore in their rotation.

Dylan Bundy RHP
Bundy signed a major league deal at the signing deadline last August. He actually has four options due to signing that deal as an amateur and will use the first of those this season. He is at least two years away from the parent club.

Oliver Drake RHP
Drake was placed on the 40 man roster this past fall to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He faces long odds breaking camp with the Orioles, but he may see some time in Baltimore this year as the season drags on and players are demoted, released, or injured.

Two Options
Jason Berken RHP
Berken was on the Scott Garceau Show the other day and mentioned that he feels strong and ready for Spring Training. I could see him breaking camp in Baltimore.

Brian Matusz LHP
Matusz has two options left and he is certainly fighting for a spot in the rotation this Spring whereas last year he was merely working on a few minor things. Unless he finds where his lost 2 mph went, then he will likely break the year in Norfolk.

One Option
Darren O'Day RHP
O'Day amazingly still has an option left according the link above. Plagued with injuries of late, he might need more time to get himself in order to perform well in the majors. He is certainly one of the pitchers on the bubble.

Zach Phillips LHP
Phillips is another player I was surprised as having another option year left. He is another player on the bubble as he has shown to be effective as a lefty in the pen.

Pedro Strop RHP (edit: Strop has no options left, he was optioned once by Colorado)
Strop came over to the Orioles in the Mike Gonzalez deal with Texas last year. At the time, Nick wrote a brief scouting review on Strop. He looked good in a short cup of coffee last year.

Chris Tillman RHP
Tillman is another pitcher who has lost some velocity as well. When the Bedard trade went down, Tillman had another 4 mph to his fastball. As that velocity decreased, so have expectations. Tillman could help out in the pen, but with an option left he is going to AAA again.

Unoptionable
Brad Bergesen RHP
Bergesen may be able to benefit from the Peterson Pitching Lab. He has flashed moments of very good-ness, but if he loses his command he becomes quite hittable. It appears that his best fit would be as a reliever, so that the team could protect him from left handed batters. It would surprise me to see him DFA'd.

Wei-Yin Chen LHP
Chen should have three options left, but I imagine his contract prevents him from being optioned similar to what most star Japanese players sign. Chen also was likely promised an opportunity to start, which will narrow things down for the club.

Dana Eveland LHP
Eveland has enticed and disappointed many teams over his career. He is now without options. The Orioles gave up minimal talent to acquire him, but that effort probably means that he would have to completely fall apart to not break with the team.

Kevin Gregg RHP
"Proven" closer Kevin Gregg cannot be optioned and will be sticking with the club in some capacity.

Jeremy Guthrie RHP
Guthrie is the dependable veteran hand and, by default, the ace of the team. Unless dealt, he will break with the club. His value takes a dramatic downward turn once the season begins because players dealt during the season no longer qualify for free agent compensation.

Tommy Hunter RHP
I am fairly confidant that Hunter is a Buck Showalter player. However, I just do not see much there worthwhile in him starting. He will likely start in the pen and will almost certainly break camp with Baltimore.

Jim Johnson RHP
Is he a reliever or a starter? It really does not matter. He will be in Baltimore.

Troy Patton LHP
Patton was the major piece in the first Tejada deal (as opposed to Luke Scott). He was very impressive last year in Baltimore over 30 IP with a 3.00 ERA. His peripherals looked solid as well. I am thinking he has earned himself a trip past the Potomac as well.

Clay Rapada LHP
Rapada kills lefties. He outright kills them. Righties outright kill Rapada. They kill him. Does the team have space for a true LOOGY?

Alfredo Simon RHP
Simon is a fringe player. He has good velocity in his fastball, but is generally inconsistent. He has flashed some hope as a starter and a closer, but has ultimately disappointed in both roles. My guess is that with his law troubles over, he will be dealt to an NL team for a low ceiling B level minor leaguer or a low probability slightly higher ceiling low minors player.

Rick Vandenhurk RHP
Vandenhurk is a shade below Simon. Simon having been able to show his abilities at the MLB level while Vandenhurk is caught more as someone who does quite well at AAA. I think the market for him is less than that for Simon. Vandenhurk will likely be DFA'd at the end of camp. I would not be surprised if he heads back to the Marlins.

Tsuyoshi Wada LHP
Like Chen, Wada probably has two elements in his contract that limit opportunity for others: (1) he cannot be optioned without his permission and (2) he was likely promised a starting rotation job to being the season.

Starting Rotation
Sure Bets: Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Wada
Competition: Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Eveland, Hunter, Simon, VandenHurk
I think the first four slots have been filled. I also think the competition will really be between Arrieta, Eveland, and Hunter. For Arrieta, it will be the rotation or Norfolk. For Eveland and Hunter, it will be the rotation or bullpen. I cannot see either of them being released. Matusz is the main wildcard here. He has the potential to be a very solid 2 slot pitcher on a first division team. His loss of velocity last year was quite concerning. If better conditioning improves things, he will secure that fifth slot. However, it would also not be surprising if we learn this year that he is suffering from an injury. I also suspect that Simon and Vandenhurk will not be with the club when they break.

Bullpen
Sure Bets: Kevin Gregg, Jim Johnson
Competition: Berken, O'Day, Phillips, Strop, Patton, Rapada, Simon, Vandenhurk
Assuming there is a thirteen man pen, Gregg, Johnson, and perhaps Eveland and Hunter means that there are four slots remaining. Under competition, the Orioles have eight pitchers competing for four slots (this does not include MiL contracts with Spring Training invites). Eveland would be the only lefty in that group. I see Patton in the pen along with the winner of the Phillips/Rapada competition. For the other two slots, I think Strop and O'Day make it, but that Berken or Simon has a decent chance to displace O'Day due to their ability to eat up innings.

Spring Training Invites
Willie Eyre RHP, Dennys Reyes LHP, Oscar Villareal RHP, Armando Galarraga RHP (I hear he signed)
I would be surprised if any of these pitchers are able to push the players in front of them out of the way. Eyre depends on getting outs on batted balls. I think we could see him later in the year, but not in April. Reyes fell apart last year. I do not know exactly what happened to him, but I see no evidence that he played past the spring. He has the ability to push Phillips and Rapada for a spot. I do not believe in Villareal. He only has a couple good seasons and last pitched in 2008. Galarraga has always appeared to be a better pitcher than he really was. I have a hard time seeing him contributing in a substantial way for a MLB club.

Offseason Not Over
There have been some rumblings that the Orioles have interest in acquiring another pitcher. The two names mentioned are Francisco Cordero who would come in an close or Luis Ayala who would be another rightie in the pen. I think the former allows Johnson to stay in a late inning setup role while the latter supposedly solidifies the late inning work and permits Johnson to close out games. In either of those circumstances, I think it weakens the chances for Strop, O'Day, Berken, and Simon to make the roster.

My Bet
SP: Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Wada, Arrieta
RP: Johnson, Gregg, Patton, Reyes, Eveland, Hunter, Strop, and O'Day

O's make roster moves and what not to do on Twitter

2012-01-24T05:48:00.001-05:00

Monday was a productive day for the Baltimore Orioles as the ballclub decided to release outfielder Kyle Hudson. Hudson, 25, was a fourth round pick in the 2008 draft out of Illinois. The young outfielder was designated for assignment to make room for recently acquired pitcher from Taiwan, Wei-Yin Chen. The Orioles had to trade or release Hudson. The team can attempt to resign Hudson, but he wont be able to play for the ballclub before May 15. In three minor league seasons Hudson put up some decent stats, .296/.375/.336 in 119 games.

The Baltimore Sun reported that the Orioles and free agent switch hitting utility infielder Wilson Betemit have agreed on a 2 year +1 deal, pending a physical. Betemit, who played for the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals last season, will provide the Orioles with some infield depth along with the additions of Ryan Flaherty and Matt Antonelli. Betemit for his career has a stat line of .296/.336/.448 with 63 homers and 243 RBIs in 1,742 plate appearances. Last season between the Tigers and the Royals Betemit went a combined .285/.343./.452 with 22 doubles, four triples, eight long balls and 46 RBIs in 97 games. The signing would be considered an On-Base percentage aisle type signing for EVBOP Dan Duquette. The O's will need to remove a player from the 40-man roster to make room for Betemit.

Twitter has become a way to deliver the news whether it be entertainment, sports, or even the weather. News can be distributed so fast on twitter, its hard to keep up with whats current and what is old news. The speed of the news though creates some drawbacks and people will try to boost their credibility on social network sites by reporting false or made up information in hopes of making a name for themselves.

(Everybody wants to be the next Roch Kubatko, who doesn't?)

Recently, Scott Swaim who claims to have ties to MLB, tweeted that top free agent Prince Fielder was close to signing a 8 year deal with the Washington Nationals. None of the reliable and trustworthy news outlets, such as MLB, ESPN, Jon Heyman or Ken Rosenthal followed with confirmation on the Swaims news.

Former Nationals GM and ESPN Radio personality Jim Bowden did some investigating and eventually tweeted the report was untrue and that Prince Fielder hadn't nearly signed a deal with the Nats. My grandfather always told me when breaking news happens to always wait and read everything and to see what the true facts are before making a judgement on something. My guess is Swaim, was trying to stir up the hot stove and get people talking about the top free agent left on the market. I mean what else is there to do on a cold January night? Swaim even has it on his twitter that he was the one who broke the Albert Pujols to the Angels story. We live in a world where its not important that the story is accurate or not, its more important and sexy to just report the story first without any resources to back up what you are reporting. Whatever helps you get more followers and more pats on the back by your friends more power to you. But please think before you post, because when your story comes back and bites you and no one is coming to back you up, you look less credible then you already did.

Are O's Still Looking for a Left-Handed Batter?

2012-01-23T23:01:00.000-05:00

Note: This column is now outdated with Betemit signing.

Dan Duquette has mentioned in the past he is looking to add a left handed bat to the team. He has also expressed a desire to add someone with a ".380 on base percentage." Those two things are a tough combination to find a free agent whether at the beginning or end of free agency. At it stands, the only player who immediately appears as a fit is Prince Fielder. Fielder has been a good, but not elite first baseman. He tends to have on and off seasons that run the inverse of the infamous Star Trek rule (Fielder's odd years have been better than his even ones 17.1 fWAR vs. 6.4 fWAR). I think over the next eight years or so that Fielder will be a cheaper and better deal than Albert Pujols, but that he is not a great first baseman. It is on par with players like Mark Grace, Kent Hrbek, and Glenn Davis. Very good, but not great players. As such, it is difficult making a good argument that Fielder is worth 25 MM a year.

However, there are other options than Fielder. These options are not as flashy or dependable as the production that Fielder will provide. Additionally many of these second/third/fourth choices have issues with them which may explain why they are available at this late date.

Nine Potential Options:

The First Basemen
This position is one of several where the Orioles lack prime production. The current plan is to open the season with Chris Davis at first base. Davis, the long time Ranger who had his moments in Arlington, will try to make a home there, but will need to improve upon his contact rate to an acceptable level (producing a .280 to .300 batting average) to be useful to the team. The only other option there that could lead to league average or above production would be to shift Mark Reynolds back to first base. As it stands now, Davis is a left handed batter and an additional left handed batter makes little sense with respect to a platoon. Davis, however, could be a good offensive backup corner infielder.

Russell Branyan
36 years old
1B/DH/fringe 3B
Branyan has been an extreme platoon hitter with a career +.105 OPS favoring his bat against right handed hitters. His career has been one where teams have seemed to have difficulty fitting him in as he is a solid defensive 1B who was above average against righties and replacement level against lefties. Such a player is difficult to find a spot on the bench as his role is limited to 1B and DH as well as being a target for a relief switch late in the game. In 2009 and 2010, Branyan hit quite well against right handed pitching with 905 and 874 OPS in Seattle and Cleveland. In 2011, the wheels feel off and had a line of 198/293/388 in 133 plate appearances. Optimism can be found for this year as his BABIP was 50 points below his normal level. BABIP tends to regress to a player's average BABIP. The cause for concern though that I see is that Branyan also saw a collapse in his ISO. He would be worth a Minor League invite.

Casey Kotchman
29 years old
1B
Kotchman has had high expectations placed up him, placing in the top 100 prospects for Baseball America in 2002 (22nd), 2003 (13th), 2004 (15th), and 2005 (6th). He was known for plus contact, plus discipline, and plus defense. The hope was that his gap power would play up as he matured. After a solid rookie year, his hitting sputtered out. The Angels eventually gave up on him and he moved around to Atlanta, Boston, and Seattle. Last year, everything came together again playing for the Rays. He showed a good hit rate (potentially inflated by a high BABIP) and played good defense. The Rays apparently did not believe his performance last season was in line with his talent level and chose to pay Carlos Pena instead. Kotchman would probably be a good play if the team did not already have Davis. I find him an improvement on Davis, but not remarkably so.

The Third Baseman
It is a matter of discussion when trying to determine whether Mark Reynolds is going back to third base because he is best suited there due to his skills or Chris Davis' shoulder. A platoon might work here with the left handed third baseman taking third and pushing Reynolds to first or DH when facing a right handed starting pitcher.

Wilson Betemit
30 years old
INF/DH
Betemit is likely looking for a starting gig. He has predominantly played third base and he has defensively played that position quite poorly. Betemit keeps himself in lineups because he has keep his 800 or above OPS. He actually profiles as an extremely good platoon player with a career long 817 OPS against right handers and a 684 OPS against left handers. His defense is no worse than Reynolds', so he might be a decent choice as a 3B or DH against right handers and a left handed bat off the bench in cross handed matchups. He could also stand in at 2B or 1B in a pinch. He has never played the outfield.

The Left Fielders
Left Field is another area of some instability for the Orioles. They have seemed relatively unconvinced that Nolan Reimold was an appropriate solution for the past several years. The team has tried to play Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, Kyle Hudson, Matt Angle, and now perhaps Endy Chavez instead of using Reimold. Chavez, a lefty, has been rumored as being used as a platoon player, but lacks the bat to be effectively used. It may benefit the team more by relegating Chavez to being a backup centerfielder and use a more legitimate bat to pair up with Reimold.

Johnny Damon
38 years old
DH/LF
Damon was signed on the cheap by the Rays last year and was thrust into the lineup as a full timer. He showed himself to be unable to play the field and that his bat had deteriorated. The Orioles have been tied to him, but he would likely be an inflexible player who would be a detriment offensively.

Carlos Guillen
36 years old
DH/LF/1B/fringe INF
Guillen has not been a major contributor in the past three seasons. He still shows a powerful bat and a decent eye, but he no longer appears able to make enough contact. Pitchers appear to be going after him more directly than they use to. However, he does show more flexibility than Damon and that means Guillen can stand around poorly defending more positions than Damon.

Raul Ibanez
40 years old
DH/LF
Ibanez is not a adequate defender. He hasn't been for years. For the Phillies, he had a good half season and the rest went to pot. Ibanez still does relatively well against right handed batters. He is the type of player I imagine that the old Andy MacPhail regime would be interested in. Ibanez had a down year last year and someone might take a chance that he could find his stroke again. I doubt he can though. He just does not have the bat speed anymore.

J.D. Drew
36 years old
RF/LF/DH
Drew suffered from a shoulder impingement and a fractured finger which resulted in an awful season last year. He has said that he would continue playing only if he found the right, winning situation. Many players waiting for contracts have said that and it remains to be seen what Drew will do. If his shoulder is fixed, then it would be an easy decision to sign him and slot him in left field. Without looking at his medicals, he appears to me as a great buy low candidate. I would not want to spend more than 3-4 MM on him and would not wish to promise him a starting slot. The latter contingency may be difficult in convincing him.

Kosuke Fukudome
35 years old
RF/LF/DH
When the Cubs signed Fukudome they expected a superstar. What they got was a very good season, two average ones, and a mess of a final season. His numbers in Japan actually translated quite well with a high OBP. Somehow the frenzy of a top notch foreign player coming to the US escalated the cost beyond reason. Although he did not perform according to expectations, that does not make Fukudome a worthless player. Even last year's evaporation of any sense of power, Fukudome maintained an OBP over .350 against lefties. He could be useful as a 5th outfielder and an OBP focused platoon player against righties.

The Designated Hitter
One thing has remained the same even though there was a regime change: the expressed desire to keep DH duties open to give players rest. In the MacPhail era, this often unraveled into reserving the DH position to full time players like Aubrey Huff, Luke Scott, and Vladimir Guerrero. As the Duquette era begins, does he go out and sign a full time DH? Damon, Guillen, and Ibanez likely would qualify as that. So would our last option.

Hideki Matsui
38 years old
DH
The Athletics have tried for the past several seasons to take advantage of a cheap way to improve offensive production: strict DH bats. This included Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Jack Cust, and then Hideki Matsui. This approach has not exactly gone well for the Athletics. The poor success rate is likely a reason why it is relatively cheap to use this approach. Before last year, Matsui was a 850 OPS performer against right handed pitching. Last year, he was at 654. I don't see him bouncing back.

Conclusion
I see J.D. Drew, Wilson Betemit, or Casey Kotchman as the three targets that would be ideal. They are players with good reason for optimism and an outside chance of being useful in a deal that would bring back a B level player. That said, if the sole play is for a B level prospect then the cost at hand should be no more than 5 MM. Adjust for the probability of these players being tradable and I would be comfortable offering 3 MM with incentives. The only other one of these eight that I would be OK with offering a MLB contract would be Kosuke Fukudome. I could see offering him a base pay of 1.5 MM with incentives. There really are not a lot of great choices.

Arrivals and Departures: Peace and the 40 Man Roster

2012-01-23T06:06:00.000-05:00

I have finally found a forum and a website that has given me the opportunity to speak my mind about the Baltimore Orioles. For so long, I have been searching various Oriole message boards and blogs for a place to contribute to the daily news surrounding the ball club and Camden Depot has graciously given me the space to do that. First let me introduce myself, I'm born and raised in Baltimore and have been an Orioles fan since Cal Ripken Jr. made the winning catch in the World Series in 1983. I have been in the radio business for the last ten years working as a producer and reporter for CBS Radio. Throughout my time as a reporter I have covered the Orioles, Ravens, Maryland Terps Basketball and Football for 105.7 The Fan and ESPN Radio 1300AM.

My desire to write about sports began two years ago when I took a fun writing course in college and ever since I have been helping out with writing about Lacrosse for ESPNHS.com and have covered high school sports for The Carroll County Times.

I have always wanted to write about the Orioles. I occasionally will go over and chime in on the message boards at Orioleshangout.com. But adding posts and creating threads can get fun for only so long. My passion is to cover the team and bring the latest news coming out of the warehouse to you the reader. With my experience as a reporter and the love I have for the Orioles I feel we will have a lot of fun here on Camden Depot.

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So lets dive in to what has been going on so far this offseason for the Birds. Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations (wow that is a long title to type out, would you be cool if I called Dan the EVPBO?) Dan Duquette has stepped into Andy MacPhail's role and has made some significant changes to the front office. Since taking the role as the EVPBO, Duquette has brought his own people in from his days when he was with the Boston Red Sox and the Montreal Expos. Its pretty impressive what Duquette has been able to do with the changes in the front office and the scouting department considering the fact that GM candidate Tony LaCava said he wasn't allowed to mess with the cupboard. The hires in particular that stand out to me so far are Rick Peterson, who will be the Director of Pitcher Development and has a lengthy track record of helping pitchers and former Orioles centerfielder Brady Anderson who will be Duquette's special assistant and will oversee the conditioning and fitness of the ball club. Both moves I see will be beneficial for the ball club and have been needed in the organization for a long time.

But moving along, the Orioles have also made some changes to the 40 man roster and Duquette has made it no secret that he wants to shop in the pitchers aisle and the high on-base percentage aisle. And with the moves so far you can tell he is not leaving a stone unturned. Even though the additions have been made it is also interesting to take into account with the 2012 season approaching, where everyone on the 40-man roster stands with the option years. Orioleshangout poster CrazySilver did a nice breakdown, provided by COTS, on how the options work and where each player stands.

Options
An option (optional assignment) allows a club to move a player on its 40-man roster to and from the minor-leagues without exposing him to the other 29 teams.

After 4 or 5 years as a professional, a player must be added to his club's 40-man roster or exposed to the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft. (A club has 5 years to evaluate a player who signs his first pro contract at 18 years old or younger, but only 4 years to decide on a player who signs at age 19.) For purposes of calculating years as a pro, the counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins to play.

When a player is added to the 40-man roster, his club has three options, or three separate seasons during which the club may to move him to and from the minor leagues without exposing him to other clubs. A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the number of times a club may demote and recall a player. However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window.

After three options are exhausted, the player is out of options. Beginning with the next season, he must clear waivers before he may be sent to the minors again. See Waivers. Additionally, a player with 5 years of Major League service may not be sent to the minor leagues on an optional assignment without his consent.

Counting option years
- If a player is not sent to the minors during a year, an option is not used.
- If a player is on the 40-man roster in spring training but optioned to the minors before the season begins, an option is used.
- If a player's optional assignment(s) to the minors total less than 20 days in one season, an option is not used.
- A player may be eligible for a fourth option year if he has been optioned in three seasons but does not yet have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as being on an active pro roster for at least 90 days in a season. (If a player is put on the disabled list after earning 60 or more days of service in a single season, his time on the DL is counted.) The 90-day requirement means short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

The following is the 40 man roster as it stands. Again, this list is largely informed by the work mentioned above.

Adams, Ryan
Options Remaining: 2/3
Reason: Adams was brought up to replace Brian Roberts in May 2011. He was optioned after only getting a handful of starts.

Andino, Robert
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: The Marlins purchased his contract on 9/2/2005. He was optioned for the first time on 3/25/2006. He was optioned for a second time on 3/23/2007. He was optioned for a third and final time on 5/25/2008. Andino was sent outright to AAA Norfolk at the end of Spring Training 2010 with the acquisition of Julio Lugo from the St. Louis Cardinals. He was later added back to the 40 man roster in September 2010 and remained on the roster over the winter.

Angle, Matt
Options Remaining: 2/3
Reason: Angle was added to the 40 man roster in November 2010. Angle was optioned at the end of ST 2011.

Antonelli, Matt
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: Contract purchased 9/1/2008 and optioned on 3/23/2009 and 3/28/2010.

Arrieta, Jake
Options Remaining: 3/3
Reason: Arrieta's contract was purchased on June 11th 2010 to make his major debut against the New York Yankees.

Bell, Josh
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: Bell had his contract purchased in November 2009. He was optioned for the first time following Spring Training 2010. He was optioned for the second time following Spring Training 2011.

Bergesen, Brad
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: The Orioles purchased his contract on 11/18/2008 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He was optioned to the minors for the first time on 3/21/2009. Bergesen was sent to the minors on 4/20/2010 but was recalled on 5/1/2010. Bergesen was optioned to the minors again on 6/14/2010 and remained in the minors for more than 20 days throughout the season. Bergesen was optioned to the minors for four days in 2011, from 4/9 to 4/13 before being recalled for an injured starter. He was later optioned on 5/29/11.

Berken, Jason
Options Remaining: 2/3
Reason: The Orioles purchased his contract on May 26th 2009. Berken was optioned to Norfolk on 5/26/2011 to help him work on his command.

Britton, Zach
Options Remaining: 3/3
Reason: Britton was added to the 40 man roster in November 2010. Britton was optioned on 3/29/2011 but was recalled on 4/3/2011 so an option year was not used.

Bundy, Dylan
Options Remaining: 4/4
Reason: Bundy was added to the 40 man roster upon signing in August 2011.

Chavez, Endy
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Chavez no longer qualifies for options.

Chen, Wei-Yin
Options Remaining: 3/3
Reason: Signed by Baltimore as a Free Agent on 1/10/2012.

Davis, Chris
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Contract purchased on 6/26/2008 and optioned on 7/6/2009, 4/23/2010, and 3/29/2011.

Drake, Oliver
Options Remaining: 3/3
Reason: Drake was added to the 40 man roster in November 2011.

Eveland, Dana
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Eveland was acquired via trade in December 2011 and is without options.

Gregg, Kevin
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Gregg is in the last year of his free agent contract.

Guthrie, Jeremy
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: With the Cleveland Indians, Guthrie exhausted all of his option years.

Flaherty, Ryan
Options Remaining: 3/3 (Rule 5 draftee, cannot use options in 2012)
Reason: Flaherty was drafted in Rule 5 draft in December 2011.

Hardy, J.J.
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Hardy has signed an extension and no longer qualifies for options.

Hunter, Tommy
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Rangers purchased his contract in 2008 and was optioned in each season subsequently.

Johnson, Jim
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: The Orioles purchased Johnson's contract on 11/18/2005. The Orioles optioned Johnson to the minors for the first time on 3/16/2006. On 3/12/2007, the Orioles optioned Johnson to the minors for a second time. The Orioles optioned Johnson to the minors in March of 2008, but he spent less than 20 days in the minors so his optional assignment is withdrawn. Johnson was optioned to Norfolk on 5/1/2010 to make room for the returning Brad Bergesen on the major league roster. Johnson was recalled on 5/28/2010 and placed on the major league DL, unfortunately, the final option was used.

Jones, Adam
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: Contract was purchased on 7/14/2006 and optioned on 8/22/2006 and 4/1/2007.

Mahoney, Joe
Options Remaining: 2/3
Reason: Mahoney was added to the 40 man roster in November 2010. Mahoney was optioned to the minors for the first time during Spring Training 2011.

Markakis, Nick
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: No longer qualifies.

Matusz, Brian
Options Remaining: 2/4
Reason: Matusz signed a MLB out of the draft with options used on 3/14/2009 and 6/30/2011.

Miller, Jai
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Contract purchased on 11/20/2007 and optioned on 3/10/2008, 3/13/2009, and 4/8/2010.

O'Day, Darren
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: Contract was purchased on 3/29/2008. Options were used on 5/13/2008 and on 7/14/2011.

Patton, Troy
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: On 8/25/2007, Patton had his contract purchased by the Astros after completing his fourth season in the minors. Patton remained with the Astros throughout September of 2007. Patton was optioned in Spring Training 2009 and 2010. Patton was optioned for a final time during Spring Training 2011.

Phillips, Zach
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: Contract was purchased on 11/19/2009 with options executed on 3/17/2010 and 3/12/2011.

Rapada, Clay
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Contract was purchased in 11/20/2006 with options executed on 3/12/2007, 3/30/2008, and 4/1/2009

Reimold, Nolan
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Reimold had his contract purchased on 11/18/2008 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He was optioned for the first time during Spring Training 2009. After opening up with a horrendous beginning to his 2010 season, Reimold was sent to Norfolk to work out some of his issues in May and has remained in Norfolk. Reimold was optioned for a final time at the end of ST 2011.

Reynolds, Mark
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: No longer qualifies for options.

Roberts, Brian
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: No longer qualifies for options.

Simon, Alfredo
Options Remaining: 0/3
Story: Had his contract purchased by the Phillies on 11/19/2003. He was optioned for the first time on 3/13/2004 by the Phillies. Upon being traded to the Giants during the 2004 season, he was optioned for a 2nd time on 3/14/2005. He was optioned for a 3rd and final time on 3/13/2006. He was sent outright to the minors on 7/29/2006.

Strop, Pedro
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: Contract purchased on 8/27/2009 and optioned on 3/24/2010 and 5/4/2011.

Teagarden, Taylor
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reason: Contract purchased 7/18/2008 and optioned on 7/21/2008, 4/27/2010, and 3/29/2011.

Tillman, Chris
Options Remaining: 1/3
Reason: The Orioles purchased his contract on 7/29/2009 to make his major league debut against Kansas City. Tillman was optioned to the minors for the first time during Spring Training 2010. Tillman was optioned to the minors on 5/29/2011.

VandenHurk, Rick
Options Remaining: 0/3
Reasons: The Marlins optioned Vandenhurk in 2008, 2009, and 2010. He was acquired by the Orioles for Will Ohman at the trade deadline in 2010 and was consequently sent down to Norfolk.

Wada, Tsuyoshi
Options Remaining: 3/3
Reason: Wada was signed as a free agent on 12/14/2011.

Wieters, Matt
Options Remaining: 3/3
Reason: Contract purchased on 5/29/2009.

Four Options Remaining:
D.Bundy

Three Options Remaining:
J. Arrieta, Z. Britton, O. Drake, M. Wieters

Two Options Remaining:
R. Adams, M. Angle, B. Matusz, J. Mahoney

One Option Remaining:
J. Bell, A. Jones, D. O'Day, Z. Phillips, P. Strop, C. Tillman

Zero Options Remaining:
R. Andino, B. Bergesen, E. Chavez, W. Chen, C. Davis, D. Eveland, K. Gregg, J. Guthrie, R. Flaherty, J. Hardy, T. Hunter, J. Johnson, N. Markakis, J. Miller, T. Patton, C. Rapada, N. Reimold, M. Reynolds, B. Roberts, A. Simon, T. Teagarden, R. Vandenhurk, T. Wada

We will be following the option year process with each player throughout the season.

Cup of jO's: Pita Rona and Kim Sung-min

2012-01-22T08:31:00.000-05:00

As many have noted, two of the players the Orioles have signed this week are 17 and hail from New Zealand and South Korea. I know next to nothing about these players, but have been asked repeatedly about them. What I know about Rona is that he is an athletic softball player who played in the infield and needs help in refining his baseball mechanics. Sung-min is a left handed pitcher who was mentioned in a Korean paper as being a top notch prospect.

What does this all mean?

I don't really know.

The odds are long against Rona. No Kiwi has ever made the climb to play in the majors. Australia has been able to punch in a baseball player into the bigs on almost a yearly basis, but no one from New Zealand has had the honor. Toronto's Scott Richmond is often mentioned as the sole citizen of New Zealand to play in the Majors, which he is through his father who was born in Aukland. Richmond, as best as I can tell, was born and lived most of his life in British Columbia. In BC, they actually have advanced amateur baseball. In NZ, softball is the most dominant stick and ball game. It is pretty difficult to take mechanics learned from softball and seamlessly transition to baseball.

I'd have to say the best baseball prospect New Zealand has yielded has been Scott Campbell. He was an infielder in the Blue Jays' system. His calling card was a solid average and strong plate discipline. However, he tore his groin in 2009 and chose to rehab the injury. It did not get better, so he had surgery to repair his hip labrum and missed all of 2010. The next Spring Training, the hip was still an issue. Further review found that his femur was oddly shaped and would continually tear at his labrum, so he had another surgery and missed all of 2011. The Jays are hoping that they can bring him along at 3B and see what he can do.

The Red Sox have been particularly active in New Zealand, signing brothers Mona and Boss Moanaroa in 2008 and Te Wara Bishop in 2011. Mona Moanaroa took three years to emerge from rookie ball, but looked decent in short season A ball if you solely look at the numbers. He displays good discipline and power. Boss, on the other hand, appears to be a bit of a free swinger. I think Bishop was still in the academy last year. I think a major problem for many of these players acclimating to baseball is probably their swing. A severe uppercut swing that works in softball does not work well in baseball because the bat moves too quickly through the zone. The limits the amount of contact that can be produced.

South Korea, on the other hand, is a nation that has produced several baseball players. However, if the Orioles did in fact sign the best amateur in South Korea...it may not exactly mean much. There are years where the talent out of Korea is very good and years where it is not. I think if we compare these nations to the talent produced by states in the United States. I would compare South Korea to Rhode Island and New Zealand to maybe Wyoming. That said, the populations of South Korea and New Zealand are greater than those respective states, meaning that the potential to find talent is greater than those states. The problem is often having the proper infrastructure and instruction in place to develop players who will succeed in the American game.

So, to answer your question about what does it mean that the O's have sign Pita Rona and Kim Sung-min?

I am not really sure.

For the Post FanFest Hangover

2012-01-21T18:00:00.005-05:00

Enjoy!

Cup o' jO's: Rick Peterson and the O's Arms

2012-01-20T06:04:00.000-05:00

Just a quick entry this morning...

Rick Peterson and his pitching lab will apparently be in full effect for the Orioles in 2012. His analytical technique has been hailed as a major prevention tool against injuries. I have disabled list numbers of starting pitchers from part of his tenure with the A's and all of his tenure with the Mets, giving us a time line from 2001 to 2007. I also have disabled numbers of Orioles' starting pitchers in 2009 and 2010.

Rick Peterson
2001 - No starting pitchers visited the DL
2002 - 3 DL visits, 84 missed days
2003 - 3, 60
2004 - 3, 91
2005 - 3, 205
2006 - 5, 382
2007 - 3, 215

I am not sure what to make of the above except to note that much of the injury issues with the Mets were with aging retreads as they tried to fill out their pitching rotation for another post season run. I look at those numbers and they appear to be quite impressive. Although, he did have one of the more unfortunate statements to have been uttered during his time with the Mets. He noted that he could fix Victor Zambrano's performance in "ten minutes" while Scott Kazmir was at least three years from performing in the big leagues. Zambrano, as many expected, quickly fell apart and Kazmir becames the Rays' ace. At the time and in hindsight, it was an awful deal and incredibly perplexing.

Now, looking at the Orioles
2009 - 4, 304
2010 - 4, 192

That does not appear to be much different than the end of Peterson's run with the Mets.

In a future post, I hope to get into these numbers a bit deeper.

Trading Adam Jones: AL Central Edition

2012-01-18T06:00:00.000-05:00

The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout. So, yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones' worth here. What is that worth? It was posited that Adam Jones would be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player. In other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level player. One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52. That means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones. We at the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what matters is who values him the most.

This fourth part will focus on packages from AL Central teams.

Chicago White Sox
Dayan Viciedo, RF
Addison Reed, RP
Gordon Beckham, INF

I think it is often a good exercise to go through and look at each team. How each team matches up. The White Sox are obviously a poor fit. Right now they are going through an Orioles style rebuilding project. That basically means that are trading away fringe value pieces and inexplicably holding onto their guys with real value. Their minors is thin which hurts teams wanting young players in return and works against the ChiSox's new goal to beef up their system. A deal here centers on Dayan Viciedo who is a promising player, but there are questions about his hitting approach with poor discipline and a need for more power. Much of the hope statistically on him is based on his rapid improvement in walk rate as he faced AAA pitching for the second year in a row. The other major piece is the struggling Gordon Beckham. Beckham promising breakout in 2009 is now overshadowed by poor 2010 and 2011 campaigns. He has developed a habit of chasing really bad pitches. He is a reclamation project.

Cleveland Indians
Matt LaPorta, 1B
Jason Kipnis, 2B
Michael Brantley, LF

The Indians system thinned out a bit with last year's acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez. Otherwise, LHP Drew Pomeranz would have been the target here. The second target would be Jason Kipnis. I have always been a big Kipnis fan, lobbying hard in 2009 for Nick to draft him in our Orioles shadow draft. He logged 150 plate appearances last year and showed a strong bat and the potential to stick it out at second base. I think the team control on him and his offensive production will make him a hard target to acquire, but one you have to insist on. The bat certainly looks real, but with his difficulties at second the bat looks not quite as shiny if it needs to be moved to left field. I also focused on acquiring a couple disappointing prospects and second tier arm. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley are two prospects who came over in the CC Sabathia deal and have disappointed. LaPorta has never shown the power and contact rate he displayed in the minors. He does not have much more rope left. In Michael Brantley the Indians have someone who has logged a couple years and is approaching his more expensive team controlled years. His two major failings in the Majors have been a lack of meaningful contact and an inability to hit left handed pitching. Adding a little more salt to the wound, his approach in left field leaves one wanting, but he does have the ability to be average if not better out there. Brantley could also be exchanged out for someone like Zach McAllister.

Detroit Tigers
Casey Crosby, LHP
Nick Castellanos, 3B
Andrew Oliver, LHP

The Tigers at first look like a bad fit with Austin Jackson in center. However, Jones is a clear upgrade to Jackson with the bat and potentially with the glove. The Tigers could also pay deference to Jackson and shift Jones to a corner position. However, shifting Jones to a corner position reduces his value to the team and makes him less of an attractive piece to acquire. Additionally, the Tigers give up good pieces that should be of use to them. Crosby and Oliver are not far away from potentially providing meaningful contributions to the big league club. Castellanos is a very good prospect who could be developed by the club or dealt for a player that more fits the team's needs.

Kansas City Royals
Wil Myers, LF
Christian Colon, INF
Tim Melville, RHP

This trade almost makes sense if not for the Royals being set in their outfield. Alex Gordon finally accomplished with his bat what everyone thought he was capable of doing. Jeff Francoeur had a career year. Melky Cabrera broke out big in a career year as well. All of these guys were in their age 26 or 27 year, so it makes some sense that these performance may be real and qualify as what one might expect from their peak seasons. For a team like the Royals it would make more sense to use any trade chips to beef up their pitching instead of going after Jones.

Minnesota Twins
Miguel Sano, 1B/LF
Eddie Rosario, OF
Niko Goodrum, SS

Budget issues, Denard Span, and stopgap Ben Revere make this a difficult place for Jones to land. Add that to the general feeling that the Twins are trying to retool as opposed to push for the playoffs and it just does not seem like a fit. Sano would be the prize here. Oriole fans can often be heard gnashing their teeth when hearing of Sano because the Orioles were turned off by his 3.5 MM price tag and instead took that money along with another million, investing it in Garret Atkins. Good times. Of course, Sano is still a very raw hitter who strikes out far more than should against not too advanced hitting. He is young and could develop into a monster bat.

Conclusion
Adam Jones simply does not appear to easily fit for any team in this division. The White Sox and Indians appear not to be in the market for Jones and their packages rely far too much on reclamation projects with too much service time already used. I could see the Tigers being interested as they fill out their outfield. It appears they are set with Jackson in center and Delmon Young in left field. The Royals have the young talent to offer, but they sport an outfield that is entering into their peaks years and is reasonably priced. I also simply do not see the Twins choosing to spend so much to fill a position that they already have coverage with the difficulties they face with their budget allocations already. However, of those deals...I'd like to find something with the Royals and then the Tigers. It still appears the only logical place so far for Jones to go is Atlanta.

Kyle Hudson's Draft Excluded Status

2012-01-17T17:53:00.003-05:00

In one of his posts, Roch Kubatko wrote the following:

Hudson can't be placed on waivers and outrighted to the minors before March because he's "draft excluded." The Orioles must trade or release him. They can re-sign him if he's released, but he can't play for them before May 15.

Roch apparently believes that surrounding mystery around quotation marked designations improves the beauty of sports journalism, I guess.

What does it mean to be draft excluded?

It is a player who begins the season as a minor leaguer who would be eligible for that December's Rule 5 draft and is added to the 40 man roster between the draft signing date (August 15th) and the deadline for the Rule 5 draft. This player can be traded at any time during his draft excluded status, but cannot be designated for assignment until 20 days prior to opening day.

Therefore, Kyle Hudson, a draft excluded player by being added to the 40 man roster in September, must pass through waivers and given his outright release. Apparently, there is a May 15th deadline as well that I did not know was in effect. This means that Kyle Hudson will not be an Orioles in 2012. He will sign with someone else assuming the May 15th date is correct.

What is the specific language?

MLR 6 (e)

DRAFT-EXCLUDED PLAYERS. A player who is excluded from selection in a Rule 5 Selection Meeting because the player was promoted to a Major League Reserve List after August 15 of the championship season preceding the selection meeting and remains on a Major League Reserve List through the conclusion of such selection meeting shall be referred to as a "draft-excluded player." A draft-excluded player shall not be directed to perform for, assigned to, or otherwise transferred to a Minor League Club unless the player first receives a trial with the player's Major League Club lasting until 20 days before the opening day of the following Major League season. See Rule 10(e)(6) (Restrictions on Waiver Requests) for rules concerning when waivers may be requested on a player who would become a draft-excluded player and Rule 10(d)(5)(B) (Consideration for Assignment of Player; Selected or Draft-Excluded Player) for rules concerning the waiver claim price for a draft-excluded player.

Rule 10(e)(6)

Assignment waivers may not be requested on the contract of a player who stands to become a draft-excluded player, as described in Rule 6(e), during the period beginning five days following the last day of the World Series and ending 25 days prior to the opening of the championship season of the year following the year the player became a draft-excluded player. If waivers are obtained, no assignment may be made pursuant to such waivers until 20 days prior to the opening of the championship season of said year.

I do not see anything about May 15th.

Is Reynolds Going Back to Third the Best Move?

2012-01-16T08:00:00.000-05:00

Last week it was announced that Mark Reynolds reprieve from third base has ended and he will return to the position that so flummoxed him in 2011. It was an awful season. A season where many of us winced when batted balls suggested they were heading to the hot corner. Over at Camden Chat, Andrew expressed his negative reaction upon hearing the news. I would be surprised if he was alone in his frustration. Me? I shrugged. I find myself shrugging a lot lately. In this post, I would like to go beyond shrugging and try to understand what Reynolds did last year and how that informs us on what should be done with him this year given the current roster.

First, it is good to look at the numbers in a historical context. In 114 games at third, Reynolds' defense was measured as -18 runs there. That equals what Bob Aspromonte (1967; 144 games), Todd Zeile (1993; 153 games), David Wright (2009; 142 games), and Danny Valencia (2011; 147 games). Reynolds accumulated that deficit while playing about 30 fewer games than the players he tied.

As you would expect, those with greater deficits typically played fewer games at the hot corner. Worse seasons were Greg Norton's (1999; -19; 120 games), Jim Presley's (1990; -20; 133 games), Joel Youngblood's (1984; -21; 117 games), Toby Harrah's (1979; -21; 127 games), Fernando Tatis' (1999; -22; 147 games), Edwin Encarnacion's (2007; -22; 137 games), Mark Teahan's (2005; -24; 128 games), Joe Torre's (1971; -25; 161 games), Ty Wigginton's (2003; -28; 155 games), Gary Sheffield's (1993; -31; 133 games), and Ryan Braun's (2007; -35; 112). Braun's season is of special note because his rate of losing a run every 3.2 games is almost twice as unproductive as Reynolds' rate (6.3 games per lost run). Keep in mind though that in general, a bad defensive third baseman is one who loses a run every 15 games. Reynolds certainly was not the historically worst third baseman to log significant time in the field, but he was the worst regular with only Houston's Chris Johnson as his only serious competitor.

So...why push him back to third base after such a dreadful, soul crushing year? Well, Reynolds wanted to go back to third. A player's wishes only go so far though, so those wishes had to be in concert with what the organization as a whole wanted to do. Reynolds' 2007 year may be a bit of a career year in terms of awfulness. He has typically been a player who would give up about 10 runs over the course of 150 games. That fits neatly with the one lost run every 15 games level of badness. His ability to take a walk and to force fresh white baseballs into the pitcher's hand for the subsequent batter has typically more than made up for his glove of stone. You could suggest that his 2011 year was not indicative of his true talent level and that he will regress upward to being bad at third instead of being somewhat historically bad. You could also suggest that even though the 27-30 age seasons are a time of offensive peaking that this is about the time where defense begins to deteriorate for many players.

For this post, I decided that it might be good to compare how the roster could fill in with Mark Reynolds at a variety of positions. For simplicity's sake, I used the Bill James projections (which always feel optimistic, but perform just as well as any of the others) available at Fangraphs. I projected WAR for each player by using the OBP/SLG projections, scaling them over 600 plate appearances, and predicting defensive capability.

For Mark Reynolds, I projected him as a 1B, 3B, LF, and DH. You my remember that in the beginning of the off season that I suggested that the Orioles think about sending Reynolds to left. That never happened, but I can still dream. I foresaw him being worth -10 runs at 1B, -15 runs at 3B, and -10 in left field. His WAR would be 2.3 at 1B, 3.2 at 3B, 2.8 in LF, and 2.6 as DH. The 2.8 WAR in LF with a -10 run defense still says to me that he should be trotted out there. He has athleticism.

Other options at first base include Chris Davis (2.8 WAR, -5 runs) and Nolan Reimold (1.5 WAR, -10 runs). I projected the Robert Andino / Matt Antonelli / Ryan Flaherty combination as worth 1.2 WAR. Other options at third were the combo at 1.2 WAR and Chris Davis (2.7 WAR, a potentially kind -10 runs). In left field, Reynolds would have company with Nolan Reimold (2.2 WAR, -5 runs) and Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR, +15 runs). Finally, DH could also be manned by Chris Davis (2 WAR) or Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR).

Mark Reynolds at First Base
With Reynolds at 1B and earning 2.3 WAR the following is the best setup according to the projections: 3B Chris Davis (2.7 WAR), LF Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR), and DH Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR). 8.9 WAR

Mark Reynolds at Third Base
Reynolds is slated for 3.2 WAR at third with 1B Chris Davis (2.8 WAR), LF Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR), and DH Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR). 9.9 WAR

Mark Reynolds in Left Field
We start with a conservative 2.8 WAR for Reynolds with 1B Chris Davis (2.8 WAR), 3B Combo (1.2 WAR), DH Nolan Reimold (1.8 WAR). 8.6 WAR

Mark Reynolds as Designated Hitter
DH Mark Reynolds (2.6 WAR), 1B Nolan Reimold (1.5 WAR), 3B Chris Davis (2.7 WAR), LF Endy Chavez (2.1 WAR). 8.9 WAR

Conclusion

Based on the above projections, the Orioles placing Reynolds at third base gives them 11% more projected production from the current roster. Even a best case scenario where Reynolds would provide league average defense in left field would not be more productive than the current set up with him at third base.

Additionally, this little exercise made me aware of something else: Endy Chavez is likely to be a full timer this year in left field. The only things preventing him from doing so would be Nolan Reimold taking another step forward firming his grip on LF, Jai Miller all of a sudden figuring things out, or an injury.

I am shrugging.

Orioles sign Yoshihiro Doi to a Minor League Deal

2012-01-14T12:25:00.001-05:00

With a hat tip to Camden Chat, I noticed that the Orioles signed 35 year old Yoshihiro Doi to a minor league deal. You might remember Doi from last year when he worked out for a third of MLB in California and displayed his pitches against a few independent league players. That did not go very well as he topped off at 86 mph and was hit somewhat hard over the course of 30 or 40 pitches. The Orioles were present for those workouts, but decided not to offer a contract. Doi, committed to playing in the United States, proceeded to work solely to meet that goal and did not appear in the JPL in 2011. Instead, he signed a deal with the Lancaster Barnstormers. However, visa issues prevented him from playing with the club. This may have been of a benefit to him as he has suffered from chronic shoulder and wrist issues (as far as I can discern from the information I have).

Doi had spent 2009 and 2010 in the Lions bullpen. In 2009, it appears he was on the disabled list for three months. In 2010, he opened his season with 2/3 IP and 5 ER against Chiba Lotte. He followed that with a 2 ER 1 IP outing against Softbank and then spent three months without throwing a pitch. He came back in July and his first outing was a 3 ER, 2/3 IP effort against Orix. Then he went 22 outings with only three earned runs. Those 22 outings constituted 15 2/3 IP. It appears obvious that Doi was used as a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) by Seibu. This contrasts to how he was used in Yokohama from 2004 - 2008 where he appears to be an oft-injured, but relatively average starting pitcher. Before then, from 1998 - 2003, he was a very effective set up man for Seibu.

Stuff
Using Pitch FX, I have data from 2009 and 2010 on Doi when he pitched for the Seibu Lions. He is primarily a fastball/slider southpaw. The fastball comes in at 83 mph and has flashed as high as 88 mph. His slider is 77 mph and appears useful against left handed batters. It is really his bread and butter pitch. When forced to throw against righties, he mixes in an apparently inconsistent 76 mph change and low 80s two seamer. The two seamer sometimes shows up as a show me pitch with lefties.

MLB Translation
Using the same method I used earlier for Yu Darvish, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Wei-Yin Chen, I predicted Doi performance in the Majors over a 50 IP run:

31 K, 21 BB, 8 HR, 5.21 FIP

That will not do in the Majors. However, it should be mentioned that Doi's 2008 year was used in the translations and that includes time spent starting for Yokohama being exposed to right handed batters. This inclusion may actually even out as he is going through what you would expect to be age related decrease in talent as well as not competitively pitching last year. His numbers look better when adjusted to AAA:

39 K, 17 BB, 6 HR, 4.25 FIP

An he appears to be above average in AA:

49 K, 14 BB, 5 HR, 3.34 FIP

Conclusion
Yoshihiro Doi is unlikely to provide much value to the MLB squad. He appears more as potential LOOGY depth for the Majors, but more in line to provide closer quality outings in Bowie or handed sensitive outings for Norfolk.

In others words, Doi is filler. I think he is a good kind of filler. Filler is needed in every organization. The primary purpose of it is to enable higher probability prospects to put in at bats and innings to get better. For instance, your young shortstop prospect needs to someone to catch the ball when he throws to first base. In that simple way of looking at things, that is what filler is good for. Once that level is met, there are other considerations for filler. You want a player who wants to be there and will work hard to be there. Doi fits that model. He has worked very hard at coming over to the United States and has supposedly stated that if his American tenure is relegated to the minors then so be it. He will work hard to get to the majors, but will be happy and content competing in the minors. You really do not want any malcontents if their use is primarily as filler.

Additionally, you want a player who fits in with an organizational goal. For Doi, he is part of the international expansion of the Orioles organization. Doi may specifically not be particularly promising, but the trials and tribulations he faces acclimating to the Orioles' system and to the United States in general informs the Orioles how to make the system better to help future signings. Having a personal trainer at the MLB level is fine because there is more money to throw around. However, minor league players do not have that luxury. The Orioles will need to understand how to best help international prospects succeed.

Perhaps with an eye even further on the horizon, Doi appears to be someone who is dedicated to baseball. He is a 35 year old who has suffered multiple injuries and is trying to prolong his career in the United States. I do not know his interests, but Doi may be someone who could be indoctrinated into the Orioles system and eventually be converted into someone who could help scouting lower level players in Japan, Korea, etc. This is a very peripheral objective, but I do think the more the Orioles embrace all levels of foreign players that they will be more comfortable in effectively utilizing foreign talent.

Simply put, Doi is an important signing because it shows investment in foreign-sourced players.

Jorge Posada, Wally Schang, Jason Varitek, and Chris Hoiles

2012-01-10T05:46:00.000-05:00

With Jorge Posada retiring, I wondered how his numbers stack up against the all-time greats. The easiest and perhaps most effective way to do this is simply to look at the career WAR of a player.

Every catcher who has been eligible for the Hall of Fame and has a higher WAR than Posada has made it. Those above him fall into three basic tiers. You have the best catchers ever according to WAR (66.3-71.3; Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Gary Carter, and a not yet eligible Ivan Rodriguez). The second tier includes one player (Yogi Berra) at 61.3, but will soon include Mike Piazza at 59.1. The third tier (50.3-54.4) has three players: Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane, and Gabby Harnett. All of these players have been or will be awarded with a place in the Hall.

What is interesting to me though is that Posada comes next at 44.9 during his 17 years playing and is basically equal to the following players: Wally Schang (43.8 during 19 years), Thurmon Munson (43.4 during 11 years), and Bill Freehan (43.3 during 16 years). All four of these players share one thing in common: none are in the Hall of Fame. The BBWA elected Roy Campanella in with a 36.2 WAR and the Veteran's committee voted in Ernie Lombardi (39.0), Rick Ferrell (22.9), and Ray Schalk (22.6). Lombardi fits on the list right at 16th below Joe Mauer and Darrell Porter. Campanella comes in at 18th right after Jason Kendell. Ferrell is 36th right behind Jason Varitek and Schalk is 41st right behind Ramon Hernandez.

This leaves a question as to whether or not Jorge Posada deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. If he enters, he certainly will be a lower tier HOFer. The players after him appear to be all questionable. Why? The three Posada is basically tied to have not been admitted. There has been a bit of discussion about Munson, but I have never heard anyone make the effort for Wally Schang. For me the sizable difference between the third tier run at 50.3 and Posada at 44.9 appears great enough to make that a line in the sand. The Hall of Fame is full of arbitrary considerations though and I typically do not care one way or another what happens. However, we can certainly say Posada was not one of the greatest catchers ever and I doubt anyone was claiming that anyway.

---

As mentioned earlier, Jason Varitek comes in as the 35th ranked catcher with a 23.0 WAR over 15 years. At 34th with 23.4 WAR over 10 years is Oriole Chris Hoiles. I have always thought of Varitek as a very good catcher and Hoiles as a notch below. It appears that I underestimated Hoiles as he put together as valuable numbers as Varitek with 5 less years to play. That is pretty exceptional. Without his career ending injury, his bat (never failing) would have put him in Posada territory. Yes, there are many assumptions here. However, I think if he was able to catcher 20% more games during his established career his number would be around 28 WAR. His bat was good enough to pass by at first base on those awful turn of the century Os teams, so maybe he is able to play another six years with a 2 WAR average. That would put him in at 40 WAR. My point simply is that outside of the injury, Hoiles was actually heading toward performance on a Posada like level and by that I mean Hoiles was a good catcher and Posada was a good catcher with health. Neither were exceptional, but both should be remembered.

Adam Jones' Potential

2012-01-09T05:55:00.000-05:00

Well, this site is becoming Adam Jones Depot. This past week Dave Cameron wrote an article on Adam Jones titled "Adam Jones, Unfinished." The timing is right with such an article because there is a great deal of disagreement out there on Jones' current and future worth. At the Depot, we tend to think of Jones as a promising left fielder while many professional view him as a promising center fielder. I think that distinction is worth about 3-5 MM each season. To me that means the Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado deal is about a lower top 100 prospect away from being an even deal or two lower top 100 prospects if you think Jones really is a center fielder. However, there has been a great deal of backlash from the Braves followers that Jones is not Prado's equal, which seems to be a bit of hyperbole. Many who follow the Depot appear to be fine with a Jones for Jurrjens deal, which I think is also problematic.

Cameron's article tried to suss out part of Jones' value: his potential. This was done by making a:

a list of all player seasons from the last 10 years where the hitter was 25 or younger, swung at 50% or more of the pitches they were thrown, and posted an ISO of at least .150 (to eliminate the middle infielders and catchers who are simply in the sport for their glovework). This group is essentially a collection of athletic players who got to the show based on their physical skills, but showed a significant lack of polish early in their career.

This produced 24 players who are rather interesting with respect to their future performance. So 14 of the 24 players listed are useful regulars or better. Nine star level players are in the group, including Matt Kemp and Adrian Beltre. Five good players come in the next tier, which includes Hunter Pence. Nick Faleris has actually compared the Pence deal to what the Orioles should expect for Jones if he is dealt to a team who sees him as a center fielder. The tradeoff being Pence's average for Jones' center field. That trade involved Pence and cash to the Phillies for Jonathan Singleton (top 25/50 1B prospect), Jared Cosart (top 100 pitching prospect), Domingo Santana (raw power OF), and Josh Zeid (maybe middle reliever). That deal is similar to what has been mentioned on the Depot as a potential trade framework of a top 25, 50, and 100 prospects for Jones. I would say that Jones currently skirts the role player/good player level. With respect to the Braves package, I would call both Jurrjens and Prado are role players.

I do find Cameron's method a bit crude, but it is a useful exercise. The idea is to look over the entire cloud of possibilities and recognize that the tools Adam Jones flashes are tools that may take time to package together. Torii Hunter didn't learn how to take a walk until he was 27. Dale Murphy doubled his walk rate at age 26. This made me wonder what exactly is a decent projection for Adam Jones over the next three years (his two years of arbitration and one free agent year, which would be a good idea for an extension).

I used selected all players from 1961 to 2008 who by the end of the age 25 year had at least 1500 plate appearances, an on base percentage less than .330, an isolated slugging greater than .140, a batting average greater than .260, and an OPS+ less than 110. This results in the following list of players: Tony Horton, Rich Gedman, Tim Wallach, Dale Murphy, Larry Parrish, Lance Parrish, George Hendrick, Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd, Juan Samuel, Carlos Lee, J.J. Hardy, Stephen Drew, Juan Encarnacion, Zoilo Versalles, Aramis Ramirez, and Juan Uribe. Due to the special circumstances surrounding Horton's and Baldelli's health, I removed them from the list as an outlier. Adam Jones, according to batting runs, would rank 10th out of 17 on this list. Batting runs does not consider position, so it is a good representation of the worth of a bat outside of any context. Jones, of course, would be worth more when his bat is combined with a glove that can cover center field. Using rWAR, Jones is the second highest rated player in this group.

What I am interested in for each player is how his batting average, walk rate, strikeout rate, and isolated power changed from his 25 and under years to his 26-28 years. Those differences may then be able to inform us as to what we could expect from Adam Jones. The follow are how certain metrics change from those two data sets for each individual in those data sets:

On Base Percentage = 4.7 +/- 10.8 %
Isolated Power = 6.9 +/- 24.2 %
Batting Average = 1.1 +/- 10.9 %
Walk Rate = 26.5 +/- 26.9 %
Strikeout Rate = -0.7 +/- 19.3 %

What is interesting is that as a group, there was basically improvement across the board. This included marginal improvements for on base percentage and isolated power, but also a substantial improvement in walk rate. Adam Jones is likely to improve and is pretty much certain not to walk any less. It also is informative that although walk rate improve drastically, it does not greatly improve on base percentage. This illustrates how poorly this group earns walks during their under 26 years.

What do the future Adam Jones' lines look like? The following are three lines. The first line is if Jones meets the 85th percentile for each metric, the second is if he hits the 50th percentile for each, and the final is if he hits the 15th percentile for each. I am unsure how linked the metrics are, so obviously these lines do not mean Jones has a 15% chance to be great or a 15% chance to be unplayable. The range of performance is likely to be far narrower around the 50th percentile line here.

85th: 308/369/520; 18 WAR; ~80MM
50th: 278/334/451; 11 WAR; ~50MM
15th: 248/300/382; 4.5 WAR; ~21MM

As you can see, Jones profiles as a solid center fielder over the next three years and that has a lot of worth. The key to Jones becoming a superstar involves one of two paths. The Aramis Ramirez path is thought of as the more likely one and that is to experience a massive improvement in making not only contact, but meaningful contact with the baseball. He increased his batting average by 17% with a 50% increase in his ISO, decreased his strikeouts by 36%, and also manage to eek up his meager walk rate by 31%. The second path is the Dale Murphy path, which is to drastically improve your walk rate (47%). Carlos Lee actually managed to up his 71%. To boil it down, Jones needs to see a significant increase in making meaningful contact and either increase contact in general or improve his ability to earn walks. The paths are not common, but certainly are not rare. At worst, Jones is someone over the next three years is a marginal all star.

Now, if you are the Orioles and thinking of an extension, then you would likely look to offer something in the neighborhood of a three years for 40MM deal or a four years for 55MM. That would cover two years of arbitration and one or two of free agency.
If you are the Orioles looking to trade Jones...then you are certainly asking for more than Jurrjens and Prado.

A final note: this of course is a statistical exercise using an informed selection process to predict performance and should be treated as such.

Trading Adam Jones: AL East Edition

2012-01-03T06:00:00.000-05:00

Trading Adam Jones: NL West Edition

2011-12-29T06:32:00.000-05:00

The post will focus on a baseline that was suggested by a scout. So, yes, the opinion of a single professional is how we will value Jones' worth here. What is that worth? It was posited that Adam Jones would be worth a top 25 player, a top 50 player, and a top 100 player. In other words, I would translate this as meaning a A-, B+ and B level player. One final way of looking at it, a 60, a 56, and a 52. That means that some in this business think very highly of Adam Jones. We at the Depot have not thought as highly of Jones in the past, but what matters is who values him the most.

This third part will focus on packages from NL West teams.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Tyler Skaggs, RHP
Matt Davidson, 1B/3B
A.J. Pollock, LF

The is likely just a simple exercise. Chris Young mans center for the Diamondbacks. He is, of course, a good center fielder. Backing him up now is Gerrard Parra, who should be a starting centerfielder on a first division club or a starting left fielder on a second division club. Adam Jones is just not a player of need for them.

Colorado Rockies
Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Dexter Fowler, CF
Kent Mathes, LF

Dexter Fowler is the Rockies' starting CF. His defense is less than impressive and Jones might be an upgrade. Jones' offensive production is also slightly greater than what Fowler is capable of. This package delivers a top notch pitcher, a replacement in center field with some potential upside, and a left fielder who has a slight chance to turn into something special. Pomeranz was acquired from the Indians and has a 2 slot ceiling. He throws in the low 90s with a plus curveball. He spent some time in the Majors last year, but could be served with some time in AAA. However, he may be one of those lefties whose stuff is so good and polished that the Minors are just not enough to challenge him to get better. This is similar to the issue with Matusz as he can take care of AAA hitters, but has troubles at the Major League level. Fowler has three years of control left and profiles as Adam Jones light. He does not have the raw power Jones has, but is able to use his speed on the base paths to work extra base hits. Kent Mathes is a prospect who has had to deal with reworking his swing and staying healthy over the past few years. He comes into AA as a 25 yo. There is a good upside there.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Nate Eovaldi, RHP
Allen Webster, RHP
Garrett Gould, RHP

Matt Kemp. No Benjamins.

San Diego Padres
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Jedd Gyorko, 3B
Casey Kelly, RHP

They like Cameron Maybin and also have a money issue.

San Francisco Giants
Gary Brown, CF
Tommy Joseph, C
Ehire Adrianza, SS

The Giants need someone like Jones badly. He could vastly improve their outfield. However, Brian Sabean has proven reluctant to deal what remains of his elite prospects, Gary Brown. Brown is a couple years off, but profiles as an average to above average center fielder with a solid offensive profile. The Giants appear to be so enamored with Brown that they may not see the need to get the 'now' value Jones would provide and instead opt for putting Brown in the fast lane to the Majors. It may be that the Giants are more comfortable dealing out Brandon Belt than Gary Brown. Joseph has a plus plus power, but is a bit too aggressive at the plate. The Giants have Posey and Susac in the system behind the plate and Belt at first, so Joseph may not be as highly valued. If Belt was dealt then Francisco Peguera would replace Joseph here. Adrianza would provide a plus defensive option at short stop for the Orioles. His bat is iffy, but he could be useful if Machado has to shift to third.

Conclusion

This is the division of center fielders. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres are set up the middle for a while. The Rockies could improve themselves, but have slightly less production at about half the price in Dexter Fowler. The Giants would be the team to improve the most from dealing for Adam Jones, but the question comes down to whether or not they would be willing to deal Gary Brown or Brandon Belt. However, doing so would largely remove young cheap talent from their 40 man roster. In the past, Sabean has not been afraid to go after the "proven" veteran instead of holding on to the prospect. In light of that, they are probably the only team that might be interested in dealing for Jones in this division and that interest may not be incredibly high as the Giants might believe that Gary Brown could be big league ready soon.

Expanded Roster: Was Earl Weaver correct about the 3 Run HR?

2011-12-28T06:36:00.000-05:00

Sometimes, Camden Depot expands the rosters beyond Nick Faleris and Jon Shepherd. This enables our audience to speak directly outside of the comment box as well as shine a light on other Orioles writers. This article is from Danny Black.

Was Earl Weaver correctabout the 3 Run HR?

By Danny Black

Note: This piece was completedbefore the release of Mike Fast’s Baseball Prospectus article“Spinning Yarn” which examines the hit and run.

Earl Weaver often talked about hispreference for the 3 run home run. In his book “Weaver onStrategy”, Chapter Two is titled “The Offense, Praised Be theThree-Run Homer!” Weaver talks about his approach to offense,hitting, and his love of 3R Homers. The question I wanted to examineis weather or not there is a correlation between 3R Homers and wins. The Orioles have not won more than 69 games over the last 5 years. Ihave chosen this time period to look at the success (or lack thereof)of the 3R HR.

The following list shows the totalnumber of 3R HR hit by The Orioles and their ML rank:

Year 3R HR HIT ML RK WINS

2007 21 12t 69

2008 17 15t 68

2009 19 10t 64

2010 9 29t 66

2011 21 9 69

On its surface it would appear thatthere is no direct correlation to 3R HR totals and total wins. TheOrioles went from 29^th in the Majors in 3R HRs in 2010 to9^th in the majors in 3R HRs in 2011 but only won 3additional games. Also, in 2008 The Orioles went from middle of theleague to 2009 when they were in the top 10 in 3R HRs. The result was4 fewer wins with the additional HRs. So is it time to cancel thebronze statue for Earl? Not necessarily. If hitting 3R HRs is good,giving them up must be bad, right Earl?

Below is the same chart as above butshowing 3R HR allowed:

Year 3R HR ALLOWED ML RK WINS

2007 23 9t 69

2008 25 2 68

2009 26 2T 64

2010 31 1 66

2011 27 2 69

Finally a category The Orioles are inthe top of the league: 3R HR allowed! This chart is fascinating. Consistently in the top 10 in HR against, there is a correlationbetween those numbers and Orioles wins. Over the 5 year period of2007-2011 The Orioles have a net of -47 in 3R HRs while never oncehitting more than they allowed. For comparison, The Yankees have anet of +29 and The Red Sox have a net of +28 over the same timeframe.

Is Earl vindicated? Maybe. Clearlyhitting 3R HRs alone does not guarantee success, but avoiding themavoiding them certainly helps.

Trading Adam Jones: NL Central Edition

2011-12-26T06:00:00.000-05:00

Chicago Cubs
Brett Jackson, CF
Trey McNutt, RHP
Josh Vitters, 3B

There is more value to this package than at first glance. I view Jackson similarly to Jones a few years back, but slightly underrated likely in how others view that comparison. Jackson could be a first division center fielder or he could be a fringe average left fielder. McNutt looks like a top end relief arm. He has move his fastball into the upper 90s in short stints and a plus slider. If he can improve his change up, then he might be a mid-rotational arm. Josh Vitters falls into what I call the Shea Hillenbrand mold. He has a poor ability to walk, but he does a good job meeting the ball. For me he profiles as a guy who will deliver a few solid average seasons with a couple 300/340/440 seasons ideally at third, but maybe at first or right. Regardless, I do not think Theo Epstein has any interest in trading for Adam Jones. Epstein needs a young group of players to build upon and someone like Jackson is that player. McNutt and Vitters are small pieces that Epstein has been willing in the past to hand out. I'm not sure the best use of Jones is pulling back a potential replacement, a backend bullpen arm, and a potentially average third baseman or a poor first baseman.

Cincinnati Reds
Billy Hamilton, SS/CF
Zach Cozart, SS/3B
Todd Frazier, 3B/LF

The Mat Latos deal removed a great deal of talent from the Reds system that would interest the Orioles. Hamilton would be the prize here. He is an 80 runner with raw hitting and fielding skills. He profiles as a first division shortstop or could be moved to center field. Hamilton needs to work on improving his skills, so that he can take advantage of his tool box. He would likely break into the Majors in 2014. Cozart could be the Orioles starting third basemen in 2012. He has good hands and an accurate arm and his hitting should be sufficient. His true value is likely as a first division utility infielder, but he should make a career as a second division third baseman. Frazier could also be the Orioles starting third baseman in 2012 or he could be in left field or even fill in at second. He has spent some time in the past year as a utility infielder. Frazier has been one of those players whose plus power plays well in the minors, but has questions surrounding it in the Majors. I used to think highly of him, but Nick would chide me commenting on Frazier's arm bar (a similar issue Nick had with Gordan Beckham). Frazier may never hit well enough to be a full time player in the Majors, perhaps being better suited as being a platoon player against lefties. This deal would help fill out the team a bit with more utlity/fringe second division types. It all basically hinges on your evaluation of Billy Hamilton.

Milwaukee Brewers
Wily Peralta, RHP
Scooter Gennett, 2B
Logan Schafer, CF

This is a poor man's version of the Cincinnati Reds deal. Peralta profiles as a top end closer or a potential 2/3 starting pitcher. He throws in the low 90s and primarily works off his fastball. He has average, perhaps less than average, offerings in his change up and slider. He had a successful stint in AAA last year and could open the year in Baltimore if given the chance. Scooter Gennett is a low minors second baseman. He reminds me a little bit of Brian Roberts and like Brian Roberts, Scooter will likely need to prove himself at every rung on the ladder. He has less speed than Roberts and is showing power at an earlier age. Schafer has lost a great deal of time in his minor league career due to injuries. However, he has shown the ability to play center and show above average power.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, RHP
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B
Robbie Grossman, LF/RF

Click. I imagine that will be what Dan Duquette would hear upon mentioning Taillon. The Pirates do not need Adam Jones, so this is an exercise that likely is not realistic. Adrew McCutcheon is an very good center fielder. He will also be a very good left fielder when Starling Marte is promoted. Maybe the Pirates would want Jones to form an excellent defensive outfield of Marte, McCutcheon, and Jones, but that seems like overdoing the three center fielder idea. I do not think they would entertain Marte's inclusion here along with Taillon's. You could probably flip the two and maybe get traction. We are big fans of Jameson Taillon and openly wished for him to fall to the Orioles instead of Manny Machado. Taillon throws an easy plus fastball in the high 90s, a plus table drop curve, and a plus slider. He is a monster. Grossman profiles as an average to above average corner outfielder. He is competent defensively and shows a good understanding of the strike zone. There are some questions as to whether his 2011 performance was more a matter of repeating a level than actually improving to such a remarkable degree.

St. Louis Cardinals
Shelby Miller, RHP
Oscar Taveras, LF/RF
Zach Cox, 2B/3B

This is an interesting collection of players. Miller is as sure a bet to be a star as a pitching prospect can be (that will likely be the reason why the Cardinals would never consider having him included in a deal). He commands his fastball in the mid 90s with workable curve and change. Without his inclusion, I do not see how the Orioles could get a good return for Jones. Taveras holds a lot of promise and could be an excellent player as he matures. He makes great contact and has good secondary power. He is likely to play in AA this year as a 20 year old. Cox would provide sure mid-level value. He will likely profile as an average or above average bat at second or third with value coming from plus contact.

Conclusion

Pittsburgh has the least need for Adam Jones as they sport two above average centerfielders on their 40 man roster. Chicago is a club that is likely to be short on want as they will very much like to have a player like Brett Jackson who could provide production similar to Adam Jones for a lower cost and a long time frame (if he pans out). The Cardinals simply are not going to give away a prospect who is a short distance from the Majors and has ace potential. Although Jones would be of use, the cost seems too high for the Cardinals. Milwaukee could use Jones to help mitigate the loss of Prince Fielder. However, Nyjer Morgan and Logan Schafer are two internal options that will be cheaper and not impact the club in the long term as losing prospects might. Milaukee is dealing with a short window to bring in a World Series Championship, so a move here might make the most sense to them. For the Orioles, the package is underwhelming. It is, more or less, Peralta and odds and ends. The club needs more value here or a higher ceiling value. A mid-season deal involving both Peralta and Jungman/Bradley would be more suitable, but likely will be asking for too much for only a season and a half of Jones. That leaves Cincinnati who could use Jones, but would they leverage so many of their assets for 2012? Hamilton will not factor into their 2012 or 2013 plans and may in fact never be more than a loose set of impressive tools. Cozart and Frazier would be useful to their 2012 effort, but the Reds may be able to find other ways to fill them in with other players. It is possible they could add a Robert Andino and Drew Stubbs side deal in there. I could see a Cincinnati deal being workable on both sides, but prefer the options discussed in the NL East post.

Orioles Celebrating the Christmas

2011-12-25T07:27:00.000-05:00

That may not be the Orioles you are primarily interested in.

Trading Adam Jones: NL East Edition

2011-12-22T06:00:00.000-05:00

Atlanta Braves
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Randall Delgado, RHP
Edward Salcredo, 3B

This package would involve two pitchers who have the potential of being 2/3 slot pitchers on a first division team and a corner infield/outfield bat with an above average offensive profile. Both Vizcaino and Delgado will be able to help out Baltimore in 2012 to varying degrees. Atlanta used Vizcaino in the pen last year, but has the tools to start. He has a mid 90s fastball and a plus curve. Delgado also spent time last year in the Majors, but in the Braves' starting rotation. His ERA was under three, but his peripherals suggest a great deal of luck was involved. He has some issues with command and depends more on his curve and change up. Salcredo held his own as a 19 yo in the SAL. He shows an above average profile at the plate with power. His defense may push him to right field where his plus arm can still be used.

Florida Marlins
Christian Yelich, LF
Matt Dominguez, 3B
Marcell Ozuna, RF

The Orioles need more position prospects in their system and the Marlins match up the best to provide those pieces. This deal consists of an above average all around left fielder, a defense first third baseman, and a young tools oriented right fielder. Yelich has come out strong since being drafted in 2010. His arm is merely average and he does not throw well, so he may be shifted to first base where his bat would look more average. Dominguez has a gold glove caliber glove, but his bat is at best an average one. He shows poor meaningful contact and does not show much power. Ozuna is a few years away from the Majors. He shows a strong arm in right field and plus power. He has had issues making contact.

New York Mets
Zach Wheeler, RHP
Matt Harvey, RHP
Jenrry Mejia, RHP

This deal involves three pitchers at varying stages of development and varying probabilities for reaching a 2 slot ceiling. Wheeler was who we suggested to take in the 2009 draft when the Orioles preferred Matt Hobgood (we still feel good about that one). Wheeler has a plus-plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a plus / fringe plus-plus curve. He is a year or two away from MLB. Harvey also has a live arm and sits in the mid 90s and shows a plus slider. His change up is lagging behind Wheelers, which leaves some to think Harvey might be better suited for the bullpen. Mejia also showcases a mid-90s fastball, but uses a change as his second offering. His ability to stick as a starter is how his curve develops. Of the deals available in the NL East, this one has the highest ceiling.

Philadelphia Phillies
Trevor May, RHP
Brody Colvin, RHP
Jesse Biddle, LHP

This is one of the weaker packages as all three profile as mid-rotation arms and none of them pitching above A ball last season. May throws a low 90s fastball with good movement and is working on his curve ball and change up. He ate up HiA ball hitters last year with 208 ks in 151 innings. Colvin was another shadow selection we made back in 2009. He struggled with a back injury last year. He has a heavy mid 90s fastball and above average secondary offerings (curve and change). I still think he has an outside shot of being an ace, but that probability has slimmed up quite a bit. I liked Biddle coming out of high school. The long season though saw his fastball velocity dip below 90 mph, which is problematic long term. He needs to get stronger and be able to add velocity. If not, he may be best suited in relief where it might be easier for him to regain velocity.

Washington Nationals
Brad Peacock, RHP
A.J. Cole, RHP
Sammy Solis, LHP

Ideally, Anthony Rendon would be in play here, but he won't be due to him signing last August. It is unrealistic to think the Orioles could let him stick with the Nationals for almost the entire season before he could be spun. Peacock could break camp with Baltimore. His low 90s fastball and curve are plus pitches and he is gaining better use of his change up. He could be a 2 slot pitcher. A.J. Cole has two plus pitches in his mid-90s fastball and his curve. However, he needs to improve his command of the curve as fewer batters will swing at it as he moves up the ladder. Solis throws in the mid 90s and has less control and command of his curve than Cole. All throw pitchers look like mid-rotation arms. A.J. Cole though could be special if he figures out his curve and develops his change up.

Conclusion

The Nationals, Braves, and Marlins need center fielders. The Phillies have Victorino and the Mets need to hold onto their young talent right now. I am not fond of what the Marlins have to offer. Yelich could provide a good average to above average option in left field, Dominguez could be an average third base man, and Ozuna might flare out in the upper minors. I am of the opinion that a team wins based on star talent and this package does not flash that enough for me. The Nationals package does flash star talent with A.J. Cole and Brad Peacock. A downside here is that the value is all pitching. The inclusion of Salcredo makes me prefer the Braves package here. An infield of Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, and Edward Salcredo could be an excellent infield core. If Salcredo's defense falters then he could spell Markakis. Vizcaino and Delgado are excellent pitching prospects that are essentially MLB ready. I doubt the Braves would do it, but it is what I would target.

Some Writings of the Os New Numbers Guy

2011-12-20T19:41:00.002-05:00

Here are a few of Steve Walters columns at the Wages of Wins blog. Enjoy.

April 2007
It Ain't Necessarily So

May 2007
Baseball's Arm Race and the Prisoner's Dilemma

June 2007
Optimistic to a Fault
Rocket Science

December 2007
Stop the Presses

August 2009
Why Smart GMs Do Stupid Things

O's Scouting: Shake-up and fallout, follow-up

2011-12-19T09:29:00.007-05:00

On Friday we discussed news of Baltimore gutting its pro scouting department. As not much information was available at the time the story broke, we wanted to make sure we followed-up Friday's discussion in order 1) to fairly portray the moves that were made, and 2) to provide a useful commentary on the impact of these moves. That is what we will do this morning. If you have not read Friday's piece, it might make sense to do so before diving into this piece. It contains a couple of longer threads regarding the shift from pro to amateur scouting that are not rehashed here, and it also touches on a couple of assumptions (both here at the Depot and in the media at large) that have proven incorrect with further digging.

What has changed?
Entering 2011, Baltimore's roster of non-amateur scouts included one advance scout (scouting future Orioles opponents), two Major League scouts (primarily responsible for evaluation of talent on other Major League teams), and seven pro scouts (primarily responsible for evaluation of talent in the Minor Leagues). These evaluators were not limited to their primary scouting responsibilities, and might be assigned to assist in other areas as needed. Because the primary amateur scouting season runs February through May, leading up to the draft (spring training through the first third of the season on the pro side), it is generally uncommon for pro scouts to regularly participate on the amateur side.

Upon Dan Duquette's taking over as President of Baseball Operations this November, filling the office vacated by Andy MacPhail, the Orioles began an overhaul of the pro scouting department. Late November, the Director of pro scouting (Lee MacPhail IV) was demoted to pro scout, with the position of "Director" rumored to be removed altogether. At the end of last week, word came down that the Orioles were reassigning five pro scouts and their MLB advance scout to the amateur side. The specifics are as follows:

Advance scout, Jim Thrift (new assignment, area scout in western Fla.)
Pro scout, Lee MacPhail IV (new assignment, area scout in Mich./Ohio/W.V.)
Pro scout, Jim Howard (new assignment, area scout in N.Y./N.J./Penn.)
Pro scout, Ted Lekas (new assignment, area scout in New England)
Pro scout, James Keller (new assignment, rover/area scout in California)
Pro scout, Todd Frohwirth (new assignment, area scout in Wisc./Minn./N.D./S.D.)

By my count, this leaves the remaining pro scouting department as follows:

MLB scout, Dave Engle
MLB scout, Bruce Kison
Pro scout, Chris Bourjos (based out of Arizona)
Pro scout, Gary Roenicke (based out of California)
Pro scout, Fred Uhlman, St. (based out of Baltimore)

Brady Anderson will apparently be joining the organization in some official capacity, though it is unclear what his role will be.

Argument for restructuring
The removal of a full-time advance scout is probably fine. Statistical analysis is highly effective at the Major League level, due to the relative stability in year-to-year output and overall predictability of player performance. That is not to say that the advanced metrics used by front offices (versions of which can be found at sites like BaseballProspectus.com, BillJamesOnline.com, TangoTiger.com, and Fangraphs.com) are infallible. But for the most part you can get a good idea of players' relative strengths and weaknesses in various situations by giving the right numbers to the right people and letting them go to work. Additionally, HD video is publicly available for every inning of every game, so to the extent you need to see game tape, it's there. It isn't perfect, but if you want to rely on stats and video at the Major League level when it comes to advance scouting, you can probably get by.

The number of MLB scouts has not changed, it is around the typical number of evaluators that you will see an organization devote primarily to the MLB-level. Many organizations do not have an official "advance scout" position, instead opting to divide the duties of an advance scout between the MLB scouts on payroll and perhaps a pro scout or two, depending on timing.

Argument against restructuring
The biggest argument against the restructuring is that Baltimore is gutting the group of scouts listed as "pro scouts", which are primarily responsible for Minor League evaluation. Stats and video are much less useful tools when evaluating players from other organizations at the Minor League level, and become increasingly less useful the further away you get from the Majors. Totaling three pro scouts at this point, the Orioles would be significant outgunned in this department should they opt to proceed without filling the void with new hires. Toronto and New York (A), for example, each boasted double-digit pro scouting positions in 2011. Tampa had fewer listed pro scouts in 2011, but also mix-in "special assignment" scouts and one or two dual role international/pro scouts.

The loss of manpower means fewer eyes on Minor Leaguers and less information for the front office when trade talks take place. As free agent bargains become fewer and fewer, and with modifications to the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA removing teams' ability to spend without ramification on amateur talent, the trade market is quickly becoming one of the most important avenues for talent acquisition. Accordingly, Baltimore needs to be a leading organization in talent evaluation to maximize their efforts on the trade front.

One of the largest questions currently facing the Orioles is whether or not they will extend Adam Jones. If they elect, instead, to trade him, it will likely be for a package of players. Making sure Baltimore gets the most out of that package is of the utmost importance. Will the three remaining pro scouts have enough opportunity to cover five or six levels of Minor League baseball such that the Orioles will be able to not only accurately gauge the value of a proposed package of players, but to also compare that package against other possible packages in order to determine which of two or three deals is preferable? Perhaps more important, will Baltimore be able to spot that struggling prospect that an organization might undervalue and add as a piece to close a deal?

In a world where knowledge is power, it makes little sense to limit your avenues of information gathering. No stat line/video combination will tell you what you need to know about an Advanced-A arm when trying to project whether he will be able to improve his command, or whether he will work hard enough on his change-up to make it the third Major League average-or-better offering he needs to stick in a rotation long term. You need eyes on the field before the game and after the game. You need to be able to talk up the people at the field and around the team. A player's make-up is an important factor in determining whether he will be able to weather the challenges of rising through the Minors and transitioning to playing the game at the highest level in the world. While not tangible, make-up is real, it is important, and it needs to be evaluated.

The importance of timing
This issue was touched on in last week's post, but should be reiterated. There is negligible positive value for Baltimore in adding these five evaluators to the amateur side, as they are starting out a good deal behind their competitors when it comes to identifying the draft-eligible follows and getting multiple looks at those talents. Additionally, these evaluators will need to make inroads in creating contacts with the high school, JuCo, 4-year college, travel team and showcase coaches and personnel in order to stay on top of pop-up talents (e.g. arms that see a big bump in velocity during the spring). It is simply a large ask and places these evaluators in a difficult spot when trying to make judgments on volatile assets such as amateur players, and doing so with limited views and potentially limited access to info from third party coaches and evaluators.

There is some danger that shuffling scouts around outside of the general "hiring/firing/assignment" period for scouts -- generally the fall -- will make outside evaluators wary of joining the Orioles organization for fear that a similar restructuring could take place in the future. Baltimore can explain some of this away by pointing to the late hiring of Duquette, and the accordingly late ripple of moves in restructuring the scouting department. One evaluator from another organization commented, "Definitely weird [timing to shuffle things up]; somewhat understandable with [the late GM hiring]."

Unfortunately, while this reasoning makes sense it still reflects poorly on the organization as a whole. The fact that Andy MacPhail was unlikely to stay after October was the worst kept secret in Baltimore, starting around early-July. The long hiring process for MacPhail's replacement, highlighted by a handful of very public rejections from would-be candidates, did not sit well with those watching from afar in other organizations, and reinforced a stereotype that the Orioles, as an organization, lack focus and professionalism.

The fact that issues at the top have rippled down to effectuate reassignment of scouts well after they could reasonably be expected to find work elsewhere is not the end of the world, but it is another reminder to the industry that Baltimore continues to struggle putting together any sort of coherent plan for the future. Now, with Duquette apparently set to turnover larger chunks of the organization over the next ten months, some of the talented up-and-comers throughout the ranks of Major League baseball may be more inclined to wait out the upheaval to see what the organization looks like before signing-on as part of the rebuild.

Conclusion
Ultimately, the restructuring is not a huge deal, provided that Baltimore brings in additional evaluators at the pro ranks to help more thoroughly cover the Minors. Assuming that is the case, the Orioles have still weakened their pro scouting for at least four or five months (some of the area scouts can assist in pro scouting post-draft, based on several other variables which we can discuss in another post if the reader interest in there) and will be getting additional help at the amateur level, though the evaluators will be operating at a handicap.

One has to question the wisdom behind removing these evaluators from positions in which they were comfortable, and thrusting them into a world in which they will (at least initially) be out of their depth. The addition of amateur scouts is a great strategy, and one already employed by the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees, each of whom outmanned Baltimore in this department. Baltimore also handled the assignment well, placing each of Frohworth, MacPhail, Howard, Lekas and Keller in areas tied to their home, cutting down some on travel. As luck would have it, the addition of scouting eyes in California, Florida and Ohio will be useful in at least cross-checking some of the top talents in this year's draft, with each state boasting multiple early-round talents (and potentially multiple first round talents in each state).

While the ultimate goal of more amateur scouts and less in-person focus on MLB advance scouting is potentially a solid direction for the organization, doing so at the expense of Minor League scouting is dangerous. Further, while their pay may remain the same (word is that it will), it's tough to not view this as a demotion when you are moving from covering pro ball to covering high school and college ball -- the general "starting point" for many evaluators in the game and a job that usually requires a great deal more travel and inconvenience.

Baltimore could have lessened the immediate impact on Minor League scouting, and potentially avoided any hard feelings on the part of the evaluators, had they opted to rename the position as "special assignment" scout, or even allow the evaluators to keep their titles and simply asked them to chip in on the amateur side for the February to June time period. It's a small point, but one that other evaluators in other organizations have noticed. No one expects that these former pro scouts are going to jump in and be able to operate as seasoned area scouts right off the bat, so their utility is limited for 2012 already. By allowing them to cover their region on the pro side, while dipping over to cross-check the amateurs in their region, all parties would have gotten what they wanted out of the situation.

Finally, and delving into the world of conjecture, it is slightly troubling to hear that the position of Director of Pro Scouting might not be filled -- particularly if the organization is not planning on hiring more pro scouts and, instead, decides to pull eyes from the amateur side as needed. For organizations that opt to assign their area scouts to pro coverage periodically throughout the year, the task of coming up with those assignments is a difficult one. The organization must consider the responsibilities of the area scout in covering their draft-and-follows (players selected and then watched over the summer before deciding upon a signing bonus offer), covering amateur showcases, tournaments and summer leagues in their area, and the distribution of talent across Minor League levels and the teams at those levels. Almost every Major League team has a Director of Pro Scouting, and there is a reason for it -- there is simply a lot to keep track of and a strong need for the creation and implementation of an organization-wide plan.

The situation is not as dire as it appeared on Friday, but the decision to unnecessarily forfeit short-term gains in pro scouting for minimum benefits of handicapped additional eyes on the amateur side is a head-scratcher. If those pro vacancies are not filled in the coming months, the whole issue can be summed up with a very simple question: For an organization struggling to keep pace with the four other organizations in the American League East, what is the likelihood that the key to bridging that gap is putting fewer assets into the evaluation and acquisition of talent at any level?

O's Scouting: Shake-up and fall-out

2011-12-16T11:49:00.008-05:00

UPDATE -- 1:40pm -- I received word that the scouts being shifted to the amateur side were responsible for Minor League coverage as well as MLB advance work. If this is true than the impact is even worse for Baltimore. While statistical analysis can work wonders on the advance level, and more broadly when evaluating Major League players with track records, it is limited in usefulness at the Minor League level. Certain statistical work can aid in evaluating and projecting developing Minor Leaguers, but eyes-on scouting is still an intregal aspect of the process. Gutting that side of your scouting department would be a highly questionable move. Hopefully, the initial reports are true and the evaluators removed were limited to pro scouts at the MLB level, only.

UPDATE -- 2:05 -- More word that Minor League scouting is tied into the pro scout gutting. We will have a reaction to that news in a second piece later this evening. The main takeaways are 1) Baltimore is seriously hindering its ability to maximize value in trades, and 2) scouts from other organization, if ever asked to come over to Baltimore, will note the timing of these moves and the manner in which they were handled.

The shake-up
Jen Royle passed along word of unrest in the Orioles' scouting department this morning via Twitter:

Consensus amongst sources is that #Orioles scouts are not happy with new assignments. Another source: "They thought it was a joke." -@Jen_Royle

Fox Sport's Ken Rosenthal shed further light on the situation with a morning snippet explaining the nature of the "new assignments":

[Dan] Duquette, the team’s new general manager, essentially dissolved the Orioles’ professional scouting department Thursday, reassigning six pro scouts to the amateur side.

Dave Engle and Bruce Kison will remain major-league scouts, and the Orioles will make greater use of video and statistical analysis in scouting the majors, Duquette said.

Rosenthal went on to provide a quote from Duquette, explaining the shift:

It’s a more efficient way to structure the Orioles, better for identifying talent and utilizing people’s strengths to help the team.

So what is the fallout, here? Is this something that should excite Orioles fans? Well, there is some good and some bad...

The fallout: Good
For an organization who has put limited resources into staffing its scouting department, it's odd to think that six of the professional scout positions were being utilized for advance scouting.

As Duquette touches on in his comments, technology has limited the utility of advance scouts. Statistical analysis has matured to the point that batter and pitcher data is available and accessible such that managers can be armed with an iPad full of splits to access for nearly every in-game situation you can think of. Further, anyone with $119 and a computer, PlayStation 3, tablet or smart phone can watch every inning of MLB baseball, including archived games, in HD quality. In short, stats can tell you most of what you need to know about MLB players you will be facing. For everything else, there's HD video.

That's not to say that there is no need for advance scouting. But for an organization who has utilized a limited fund for scouting endeavors, there is little need for an abundance of advance scouts. The thinning of these ranks is probably something that should have occurred much sooner, which segues us to "the bad".

The fallout: Bad
This move, and particularly the timing, should have Orioles fans concerned in that it removes scouts from an area in which they are familiar and comfortable and drops them into an area from which they are years removed and in which they will be operating at a severe disadvantage.

Talent is talent, and there is little reason to believe that a pro scout is not capable of evaluating amateur talent. That is, the former advance scouts turned amateur scouts, I'm sure, have the evaluative tools to do the job of an amateur scout. However, the process itself is different for an amateur scout than it is for a pro scout.

Amateur scouts are tasked with two goals: 1) identify the current talent of an amateur talent (someone who has yet to sign with a MLB organization), and 2) accurately project the type of player that this amateur will be at the Major League level. To achieve these goals, amateur scouts must weigh numerous factors, including physical aspects of the player, athleticism, baseball tools, baseball skills, coachability, dedication to the game, as well as the player's interest in and willingness to make baseball the sole focus of his life.

Pro scouts looking at Minor League players are in a similar situation to amateur scouts in that they are appraising a player now, projecting him, and determining whether his organization should try and acquire him, though much of the static in evaluation has been removed with the Minor League players more refined and closer to the Majors than are the amateur kids.

Pro scouts doing advance work are concerned with one thing: how does my team beat this player when we face him. They will be consulted in trade and free agent situations, and may be assigned to watch a player considered to be a trade target, but much of the projection element has been removed by that time, as the player generally "is what he is".

The switch from pro to amateur scouting will require the O's evaluators to rewire their thinking some, and it requires them to do this while operating at a competitive disadvantage.

It is late in the game for amateur scouts. Most, if not all, organizations have completed compilation of their follow lists for each region, noting (and in some form ranking) the various talents in each area that need to be seen during the spring. Area scouts, since last June, have spent time at high school travel team tournaments, showcases, workouts, college summer league games, and college fall workouts, enjoying multiple looks at the players eligible for the June Draft.

Multiple looks are particularly important at the amateur level, as players at this stage of development can log erratic performances from day-to-day. The more looks you can get of a kid, the more confident you can be in your appraisal. This group of converted amateur scouts will likely be getting their first looks at players in their region, starting this January and February, while their competition is checking-in for a fourth, fifth or sixth look. Further, while the converted amateur scouts are potentially hustling to get eyes on the top talents in the area, their competition, already comfortable in their appraisal of those talents, will be able to focus elsewhere. For example, a scout from a competing organization might skip his fourth look at an arm in order to check in on the projectable righty that was only 86-89 mph in October, but might be sitting 88-91 mph now six months later.

The converted scouts will also need to familiarize themselves with a landscape that is likely now foreign to them. While many may have started as amateur evaluators, these scouts will need to revist their process and slide back into the day-to-day frame of mind of an amateur evaluator. Which factors are most important to projecting out this particular player's skillset? Who does he remind me of and was that player successful? What's the best way to go about scheduling my spring to make sure I can hit all the players I need to see? Can I catch the power arm at XYZ University during a mid-week game, or does Coach ABC prefer to limit his workload to relief on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays?

That final question touches on another issue -- these converted scouts don't have the network that established area scouts can tap into. As important as evaluation itself is, it's sometimes even more important to have that JuCo coach that texts you about the arm his team faced today, or the high school coach that sends you the scheduled start dates for a pitcher in which you are interested. These are relationships that can take some time to grow, and the converted scouts will likely be operating without them for now.

Finally, no matter how Baltimore spins it, it is a demotion for these guys. Moving from watching elite-level MLB baseball each night and having a place at the table in discussing strategy at the MLB team level is a better gig than traveling all over your region, watching mostly bad baseball and sending a player report up the ladder. Amateur scouting is a wonderful experience, and a personal passion, but taking someone with the more regimented, and more comfortable, job of pro scouting and thrusting them into the world of lots of travel, lots of uncertainty and little prestige is quite simply a big ask.

End game
Most fans might say, "Suck it up and deal with it -- at least you have a job in baseball." To a certain extent, that's true. The utility of advance scouts has changed over the last five years, and it is understandable that the organization might want to reshuffle their scouting assets to adjust to these changes. But one has to wonder if the timing of this move makes sense. Regardless of how talented these evaluators are, are you going to be getting the most you can out of them by dropping them into a job in which they aren't mentally or emotionally invested? By making the move now, you've essentially taken away from them the opportunity to consider work elsewhere, as Major League teams tend to fill their scouting positions in October and November. Is a discontented evaluator the guy you want chiming-in on your draft targets?

The big picture says the move indicates that the Baltimore front office is attempting to be proactive and adjusting to a more efficient model for its scouting department. A closer look reveals that Baltimore might be alienating their evaluators and setting them up for failure -- at least in 2012 -- essentially pushing them out the door once they have the opportunity next fall. It seems like a gradual shift, involving periodic assignments to cross-check on the amateur side and at the Minor League level, could have accomplished the same thing by this time next year, without alienating the evaluators involved in the process. In short, there is relatively little gained in Baltimore making this move right now and in this manner, and it could likely cause them to lose these evaluators to other orgs. Time will tell if such a loss is impactful.

Non-tendered Relievers on the Market

2011-12-16T06:00:00.000-05:00

Saunders could be an excellent reliever.

This post will focus on potential finds for relievers who were non-tendered this week.

Doug Slaten, LHP
32 yo
Washington Nationals

Slaten only managed 16 appearances this past season due to issues with ulnar neuritis. When healthy, he is an effective LOOGY (lefty one-out guy). Over his career, lefties have OPS'd .666 with righties smacking him at .864. He uses a 90 mph two seamer and an effective slider. Against righties he uses a changeup as a show me pitch.

Dan Cortes, RHP
25 yo
Seattle Mariners

Cortes was a top 100 prospect in 2008 and 2009 for Baseball America. He uses a mid to high 90s fastball, a slider, and a curve ball. The curve is impressive, but has shows little control of it. It is a pitch that seems to be left alone by batters who instead sit on fastballs. It is uncertain what he will bring to the table in the future. He had an unspecified off field injury that resulted in surgery on his shoulder and his bicep. He also apparently suffered a fractured hand as well. If he does heal and if he gains just a little bit more command and control then he could be an excellent reliever. He could be work a MiL deal.

Jose Mijares, LHP
27 yo
Minnesota Twins

From 2008 to 2010, Mijares was a dependable arm out of the Twins bullpen. He was roughly a 3 ERA pitcher with 8 k/9 and 3 b/9. In 2011, injuries finally took their toll on Mijares and he let the opposition get on base. His fastball dropped from 91.3 to 89.8 and he lost the ability to effectively use his slider. If he proves himself healthy, he could be a solid option.

Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP
30 yo
Los Angeles Dodgers

From 2008-2010, Kuo was one of the best relievers in the National League. A lefty who was effective against both right handed and left handed batters. He often suffered minor injuries, but his 2011 season was marred by them. Of most concern was his tweaked elbow and the resulting loss of velocity in his fastball (from 94.2 to 92.5). If a team thinks he can be healthy, then he deserves a Major League deal.

Aaron Laffey, LHP
27 yo
Kansas City Royals

Laffey is a Cumberland, MD native. Dan Duquette speaks about investing locally, but Laffey may not be exactly what he has in mind. He is a groundball pitcher who nibbles on the edge. He walks 3.6 b/9 and manages 4.5 k/9. Those are difficult percentages to live by. He could be useful in the pen or as AAA starting depth. He could be the Orioles new Mark Hendrickson. He could wind up with a Major League deal for someone in dire need of rotational depth.

Clay Hensley, RHP
32 yo
Miami Marlins

Hensley surprised everyone in 2010 as he helped anchor the Marlin bullpen. He came into the season with a refined curve and more effective usage of his changeup. In 2011, his curve left him and he resorted to throwing his slider. It did not work. These issues probably result from him cracking his ribs in May and then suffering a shoulder injury in June. If you ignore his horrific August, he actually had a pretty good year. He could be a good pickup.

Micah Owings, RHP
29 yo
Arizona Diamondbacks

Owings eats up right handed batters. They manage a .647 OPS while a .912 OPS is what lefties enjoy. If protected, he can be a useful member of a bullpen.

Joe Saunders, LHP
31 yo
Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona did not offer Saunders a contract after paying him 5.5 MM last year. It would be unlikely to convince him to come out of the pen, but he destroys lefties. Last year he had a .581/.810 left/right split. A few years after winning 17 and 16 games as well as putting up a 3.69 ERA. A possibility would be to throw a 5 MM deal under the expectation that he would shift to being a relief pitcher.

Analyzing Dana Eveland's Fastball

2011-12-15T06:00:00.000-05:00

After some time away from the confusion and hysteria that the Winter Meeting can impart, I thought it might be good to go back and focus on the Orioles' acquisition of Dana Eveland. There was some disappointment when the trade went down as the Orioles acquired a player who has an uneven career that has been entirely unimpressive at the Major League level for two minor league players who some refer to as prospects. The merits of Jarret Martin's prospect-dom can be somewhat argued. He is likely at best a middle relief arm if he ever makes it to the majors. Tyler Henson's prospect status unfortunately left him long ago. It appears to be a not much for not much kind of deal.

Dan Duquette spoke highly of Dana Eveland after the deal. Duquette mentioned that Albuquerque (where Eveland pitched 150 innings last year) and that is true. Albuquerque is the least friendly ball park for pitchers in all of the minors. It increases run production by about 18%. Eveland's ERA was 5.40 at home and 3.33 on the road. However, as well as he pitched in AAA it must be said that he was a 28yo in AAA. Duquette also mentioned that Eveland had some bone chips cleaned out from his elbow in 2010 and that he likes Eveland's fastball. In this post, I wanted to dive into the Pitch f/x data a little bit and look at Eveland's fastball and how it has looked over the years.

Velocity and Movement

With his elbow cleaned up, one might expect that his fastball would look a little different. The graph below shows some of the highlights.

You can see that in the data available, fastball velocity has decreased over the last three years. Movement has also changed where his fastball has more run to it than it used to have by about half an inch. Vertical movement actually is about half an inch more than it used to be. To some extent, this is a function of decreasing speed. It may be with this greater horizontal movement along with slightly more drop results in a fastball that is more difficult to square up on, inducing poor contact.

Fastball Events

To see how the above change in movement has affected batted balls, I have compiled fastball events below.

The first thing to notice is that Eveland was throwing more strikes last year (remember that this is a pretty small sample size). The increase in strike throwing correlates with an equal increase in the batter swinging at his pitches, so it seems like the batters are responding to an increase in strikes. Even though they swing more and the swing and miss rate has not increased, balls put into play (fair territory) has not increased. What has increased has been the number of balls hit into foul territory.

Is inducing foul balls a skill?

I would think it would be, but it is not something that seems to have been specifically assessed. Mike Fast published two pieces on how pitchers can affect batted balls. However, it appears that the main variable he focused on (horizontal velocity of a ball coming off a bat) is related to strikeout rate. Eveland is not a high strikeout pitcher, but it may be that groundball pitchers may affect contact differently than your average pitcher. It would follow reason that a pitcher who is able to induce a great deal of foul balls is messing with the batters' timing a great deal.

Conclusion

None of this is definitive. The data is on the thin side, but it appears to depend on a slight difference in how Eveland's fastball moves and whether or not a pitcher can hone a skill that significantly increases foul ball rates. I think it is prudent to be more conservative about this and attribute last year's success more to luck than skill.

Science of Baseball: Best Way to Warm Up on Deck

2011-12-13T06:00:00.000-05:00

Effects of Various Warm-Up Devices and Rest Period Lengths on Batting Velocity and Acceleration of Intercollegiate Baseball Players
Wilson et al.
published ahead of printing Nov 2011
Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research

The basis of this research was to determine how to improve a hitter's ability to make contact on a pitch. The acknowledge that a batter needs 0.3 seconds to process a pitch and swing at it and leaves only 0.1 seconds for a bat to choose to swing at a pitch or not. The human body cannot improve upon recognition to a greater degree, so the only way to improve hitting in terms of time is to increase bat speed. The idea is that by reducing bat speed, you increase the time a time can choose whether to swing or not.

Previous study have looked at warm up devices/approaches and their impact on an individual's batspeed. A study using high school players tested warm up devices that range in weight from 23 to 51 oz with the greatest bat speed resulting from warming up with bats weighing between 26 and 34 oz (Derenne et al. 1992). Another study looked at the effect using a doughnut weighing 28 oz on a 34 oz bat. It result in the change in swing mechanics and a decrease in bat speed (Southard and Groomer, 2003). A third study found that using a 55 oz bat to warm up resulted in decreased bat speed when using a 31.5 oz. (Montoya et al. 2009). A final study using different bat devices (a study we discussed earlier this year) found that collegiate baseball players did not have their bat speed altered with any tested approach (Szymanski et al. 2011).

What those previous studies did not investigate was what effect the rest period had between warming up and swinging at a pitch. They used 16 Division II baseball players. Players practiced with one of five warm up bats on successive days. The weights were 23, 30, 34, 38, and 50 oz. The individuals then swung a 30 oz bat one, two, four, and eight minutes after warming up. Four metrics were measured: peak velocity, peak acceleration, peak velocity at peak acceleration, and time to reach peak acceleration. Players would warm up and swing the 30 oz bat. Have ten minutes of rest. Then they would warm up with a specific experimental warm up bat and then swing the 30 oz bat.

The results were interesting. None of the warm up bats affected the players ability to generate bat speed. This agrees with the other study using collegiate athletes. It may be that once a player reaches a certain level that warm up devices do not improve or impair bat speed. However, they did find that the more time the player spent resting between his warm up swings and hitting resulted in greater bat speed. For example, the lowest bat speed was measured during the warm up period. The greatest bat speed was measured eight minutes after warming up. No time period after eight minutes was measured, so it is uncertain when this effect tapers off. Bat speed increased by 8% between warm up and eight minutes. Peak velocity at peak acceleration increased by 6%. Peak acceleration increased by 8%.

This seems to suggest a couple things. First off, a batter might be more susceptible to higher velocity pitches earlier in the count. Second, a batter might be best off warming up in the tunnel when he is in the hole. It may well be that all a batter should be doing on deck is watching the pitcher and lightly stretching.

2012 Top 25 Prospect Chat

2011-12-12T06:18:00.002-05:00

Here is a link to all of our Winter 2012 Orioles Prospects pieces, including our "Minor League Year in Review" series and write-ups for each of the Top 25 prospects in the system. Our coverage concludes with our Top 25 Prospect chat below.

Top 25 Prospects:
Chat and all player write-ups together here.
*Primer for scouting grades here.

MiLB Year in Review:
Double-A Bowie / Triple-A Norfolk
Advanced-A Frederick
Class A Delmarva
DSL Orioles / Rookie GCL Orioles / Short-season A Aberdeen

Camden Depot Top 25 O's Prospects

Tempest in a Teapot: Teagarden and Eveland

2011-12-10T07:59:00.001-05:00

The one thing the Orioles' fan base has is hope. Hope that with intelligent moves and a slight increase in spending, the Orioles could compete in the American League East. There is certainly a good core of players in Baltimore with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, and Matt Wieters. However, most successful teams win with several players who maximize production...otherwise known as superstars. Of those four, Matt Wieters is the only one who you could make that argument. Markakis needs to walk more, Jones needs to get more contact, and Hardy needs to stay healthy. This is not a combination of guys like Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustrin Pedroia, and Jacoby Elsbury. It is not a combination of guys like CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixiera, and the rest in New York. Nor is it like David Price, James Shields, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist. The Orioles need some complementary pieces and it wouldn't hurt if a couple of them were superstar quality players.

One avenue to get that type of player is free agency. Premier players are becoming more and more a rarity on the free agent market. The Orioles are a middle market team (perhaps barely small market). Teams like the Yankees pull in about 180 MM in profit from their regional network. The Angels just signed a deal with their yearly income being at least 100 MM. From what we know about Baltimore, the base pay is about 30 MM and we do not know how much gets thrown on top of that. The revenue of MASN as a whole is about 170 MM. The point simply being that when the higher revenue teams want someone like Albert Pujols, the Orioles simply cannot compete with them. Teams with higher revenue streams will be willing to hand out inflated deals because they have a greater margin of safety with which to play. Think about AJ Burnett. Some of the fan base was upset that the Orioles did not outbid the Yankees and AJ Burnett has shown that he is clearly not an elite pitcher. He consists of about eight percent of the Yankees payroll. For the Orioles it would be more like twenty percent of the payroll. There is just no good reason to leverage your team to that degree. I am not saying that a team should never invest twenty percent of their payroll in a player, I am saying that when two teams go after the same player that the richer team will force an inflation of cost where it becomes untenable for the lower revenue team to invest in that player.

This leaves trades as a more suitable option for a lower revenue team. Unfortunately, the Orioles do not have a great abundance of minor league talent. The team should not let go of their top three: Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy (who really cannot be practically traded until this summer), and Jonathan Schoop. Beyond those three are a short collection of players who have a solid, but not elite ceiling. The value drops away rapidly after that. It is not a strong footing to deal from.

Two deals have been made. Neither of them are for superstars. They are minor deals and ones that the baseball world in general has not paid much attention. This was to be expected as many of the local Baltimore reporters mentioned that trades were going to happen and that no one should get too excited. The aftermath of these trades illustrates a few things: (1) fan bases pay attention to prospects these days, (2) fan bases understand the abstract value of prospects, and (3) fan bases significantly overvalue their prospects. If you go back twenty years, these deals would have been met with a decent amount of fanfare. Taylor Teagarden was a top prospect and Dana Eveland ate people up in the minors earlier in his career and threw a one hitter against the Orioles a couple years back. I want to dive a little more into the two deals.

Taylor Teagarden (C) for Randy Henry (RHRP) and Greg Miclat (INF)

This is not a very interesting trade. The Orioles acquired a defense oriented back up catcher with some pop (not much else). He displays good technique behind the plate which makes his above average arm play better. He is a strong pull hitter who waits for his pitches when he is at the plate. Based on the Pitch F/X numbers, it appears that he tries to sit back on fastballs and change ups. s back up catchers go, he is a solid one. It has been reported that Buck Showalter wanted Teagarden, which leaves one hoping that Buck realizes that Teagarden's ceiling is not what it was thought to be when Buck was in Texas.

Randy Henry has been a pitcher that has been brought along slowly in the Orioles system. He was one of the injury upside selections in the 2009 draft. He has a plus fastball and throws strikes with it. It is a pitch that works in the low minors, but his limited repertoire will prove to be a challenge as he advances through the minors. I had him about 30 deep in my list and the last list I saw from Nick had him outside of his top 25. For me to have him rated higher, I would have to see him locate his fastball better and, more importantly, develop his breaking ball.

Greg Miclat was taken the year before in the 2008 draft out of Virginia. He was a slap hitter that had a wrist injury. The hope was that with a change in mechanics and getting healthy would allow Miclat to show more gap power. The power never truly arrived and at 24 he will likely make his debut in AAA. He has shown the ability to handle second base and can fill in elsewhere in a pinch. He shows good base running instincts. I had him as the Orioles' 9th prospect and, according to my last conversation with Nick, he had Miclat in the 12-15 range. We both saw him as a future utility infielder who would have several years in the Majors on the bench.

The argument against this trade is that you can go out and sign a back up catcher and then you do not have to give up prospects. Some focus on Henry's ceiling as a late inning fireball reliever or Miclat's ceiling of being an average second baseman. It is ignored how unlikely it is that either event will occur. Henry lacks pitches and needs to improvement his placement. That just does not automatically happen. Miclat's lack of power and lack of top end speed typically means that it is difficult for a player like that to succeed against more advanced pitchers found in the Majors. Teagarden provides the team with a solid defensive catcher with some power. Those are not found littered upon the ground. The value of that profile is not great, but it certainly is not easy to find. To put it another way, Teagarden has 392 plate appearances and a career WAR of 1.7. Guys like that pretend they are starters and typically do not sign to catch behind a player like Matt Wieters. They typically sign where they can start and then show why they have never started extensively over their career.

Dana Eveland (LHSP) for Jarret Martin (LHP) and Tyler Henson (OF)

Dana Eveland has been given lots of chances. Milwaukee, Arizona, Oakland, Toronto, Pittsburgh, and the Dodgers have all had him in their organizations. He is a lefty that shows promise with a somewhat sterling minor league record and a MLB career with moments where it looked like everything clicked. Last summer, Eveland threw 154 innings for the Albuquerque Isotopes with a 4.38 ERA that looks better when it is recognized that the league average ERA was 5.11. In a handful of innings for the Dodgers (29.2), Eveland struck few, walked fewer, and induced grounders at a rate of 55%. His xFIP in that stint was 3.60. I would be hard pressed to say he can do that in 2012 because he just does not have the track record and that he was acquired for not much in return.

Jarret Martin was a 2008 19th round selection and a 2009 18th round selection by the Orioles. During to injuries, he was not able to entire professional ball until 2010 with 59.2 IP in Bluefield. He had 110.2 IP for Delmarva last year with a 4.96 ERA (league average was 4.11). He sports a low 90s fastball and has some touch for a curve and change. His mechanics need help as he tends to throw across his body which is a major reason why his walk totals are so high. Neither Nick or myself had him as a top 20 prospect.

Tyler Henson was a 5th round selection in the 2006 draft. Next year if he is not placed on the Dodgers' 40 man roster, he will be a MiL free agent. This should be informative with respect to his value. Henson came into the organization as an athletic player with good power upside. However, he has not been able to generate a high enough contact rate and he did not show himself to be adept in the infield. In the history of Camden Depot, we have written about him once. He is still young at 24 going into next year...I just do not see a great improvement happening. Henson will provide good AAA filler for several more years and may even see a cup of coffee or two. I have a hard time seeing anything more than that.

The argument against this trade is that you can Minor League invite players like Eveland as he was invited to the Dodgers' camp last year. As with the former deal discussed, the argument is really about signing these abstract nebulous players that exist everywhere instead of dealing out lower level prospects. Some people love Martin's look and that he has the foundation for a good repertoire. There is just a lot for him to overcome. It just does not happen. I have not heard anyone lament Henson's movement, so I think people understand his worth. So why Eveland and not player X? Orioles' scouts apparently like him as many teams' scouts have before. He has been a part of three deals where decent pieces have moved. Maybe the Orioles' scouts think Eveland has finally put it together and has a higher upside than your typical minor league invite opportunities. The point being, if he is your guy and you do not have to give up much value to get him, then get him.

Conclusion

Teagarden and Eveland are not big pieces. They are not going to change the direction of this franchise. They are not star players. They are additional pieces likely to be worth less than two wins for the team in 2012. Eveland may not even make the club. For a team that will struggle to reach .500, these are inconsequential moves. However, young pitchers benefit from good defensive catchers and rotations always need arm for innings. That are useful pieces, but not particularly valuable.

Henry, Miclat, Martin, and Henson are not big pieces. None of them have superstar ceilings. Their presence in the organization does not change the future of this organization. Players like them are needed in every organization, but these players specifically are not needed. Does that make sense? A C level or lower prospect alone has little value, but your organization should have a bunch of C level prospects. Likewise, one lottery ticket is near worthless while ten lottery tickets have value. It is an odds game. What differs between lottery tickets and players is that it is possible to differentiate value between players. They are not the same. The key here is that the organization needs to trust its scouts in determining that these four players are not likely to provide any meaningful production for the Orioles. That holding onto them will do little to improve the standing of the team.

That level of sensitivity...the ability to discern between quality C level prospects and non-quality C level prospects is difficult. People get paid to do that and spend years and years getting better and better. That is not to say that they are always right, but it should give us all pause when we decide whether or not to so completely and aggressively dismiss any merit to the two above trades. How much do we actually know? How comfortable do we feel extrapolating beyond what we know?

Personally, I find the trades to be somewhat pointless. I do not really appreciate what they both have to offer. I would prefer John Hester backing up Wieters and keeping both Henry and Miclat. I am not particularly impressed with Eveland and find it rare that players all of a sudden break out. That said, the value being exchanged here between these teams is minimal. I may disagree with the deals, but it is not worth making much fuss over.

2012 Top 25 prospects: #16-20

2011-12-09T14:59:00.004-05:00

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

For prospects 11-25 on our Top 25, write-ups will be abbreviated, with five prospects examined in each of the next three pieces. Prospects 16-20 rank as follows:

#16 Gabriel Lino
#17 Oliver Drake
#18 Matt Angle
#19 Ryan Berry
#20 Trent Mummey

Player: Gabriel Lino
Position: catcher
Ht/Wt: 6-3/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 18y6m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 41-45
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Backstop Gabriel Lino has some offensive upside and a strong arm behind the dish, but may lack the lateral quickness needed to stick at catcher long term, particularly if he gets any bigger. He has soft hands but lets his glove float a little too often when receiving, which he'll need to tighten. The power is still raw, and does not project particularly well to a corner infield spot. Just 18-years old this year, he has time to work on his problem areas. Should his power tool emerge, he could shift to first base in order to allow more developmental focus on his bat. He is on the large side for a catcher, and it still remains to be seen how he will hold up physically over the stress of a long full season ball season.

Ceiling: Starting catcher on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe back-up catcher

_________________________________

Player: Oliver Drake
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-4/210
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie; Triple-A Norfolk
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 41-45
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Drake has a compact, under-control delivery and maintains a good line to home. His 89-92 mph fastball has some life and can induce soft contact down in the zone. His cut slider is a solid average to above-average offering, and he has also flashed average throughout his pro career with both his off-speed and curve. Drake has the body and endurance to chew through innings, but his stuff may be better suited for the pen, where his fastball/slider combo could be solid in middle-inning work. Baltimore will give him a second run at Bowie next year. If he stumbles, he could shift to the pen prior to promotion to Norfolk.

Ceiling: #4 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-reliever

_________________________________

Player: Matt Angle
Position: center field
Ht/Wt: 5-10/175
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 26y2m
2011 level(s): Triple-A Norfolk; MLB Baltimore
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Matt Angle arrived in Baltimore this summer with largely the profile expected of him since he entered the system in 2007. Devoid of power, the former Buckeye center fielder fits best as a 4th outfielder capable of plus defense and solid value as a pinch runner. He could slot in as a placeholder in a starting lineup, but it is unlikely he will be able to handle Major League velocity on the inner-half to the point that he maintains even a passable on-base percentage. He should have the inside track on the 4th outfield spot this spring, depending on what transpires over the remainder of this off-season, and could see significant innings as a late-inning defensive replacement, pinch runner and Sunday starter.

Ceiling: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

_________________________________

Player: Ryan Berry
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-1/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 23y2m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Berry eased back into baseball activities in 2011, following off-season shoulder surgery. Originally projected as a potential mid-rotation starter, the resurfacing of shoulder issues may move Baltimore to shift the former Rice ace to the pen. When healthy, Berry boasts two curves, with a hard spike (or knuckle) curve being his best offering. His fastball is generally fringe-average velocity, sitting upper-80s to low-90s, but he could see a slight bump in velo if he shifts to shorter stints in the pen. 2011 was very much about building shoulder strength back-up; it will be interesting to see if Baltimore gives him another shot in a rotation or bumps him to relief to get him moving.

Ceiling: #4/#5 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-reliever

_________________________________

Player: Trent Mummey
Position: outfield
Ht/Wt: 5-10/185
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 22y11m
2011 level(s): Class A Delmarva; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 38-43
Prospect Grade: C

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Trent Mummey missed time after crashing into an outfield wall in May, then again due to hamstring issues later in the summer. While he only logged 29 games and 134 plate appearances this summer (14 and 69 in Delmarva and Frederick, respectively), he showed a good feel for the game and solidified his status as a prospect. Mummey has limited ceiling, but plays a good center field, runs well, and has a short swing capable of spraying the gaps. He's undersized, but strong, and likely fits best as a future 4th outfielder. He gets tied up on the inner half when faced with good velocity, and his ability to adjust to more advanced secondary stuff at Double-A Bowie will say a lot about his future potential.

Ceiling: 4th outfielder on a first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Fringe bench

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #11 - 15

2011-12-09T13:00:00.001-05:00

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

For prospects 11-25 on our Top 25, write-ups will be abbreviated, with five prospects examined in each of the next three pieces. Prospects 11-15 rank as follows:

#11 Xavier Avery
#12 Ryan Adams
#13 Glynn Davis
#14 Eduardo Rodriguez
#15 Michael Wright

Player: Xavier Avery
Position: center field/left field
Ht/Wt: 5-11/180
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 21y11m
2011 level(s): Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 46-50
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Xavier Avery remains an upside prospect with promise, despite completing his third full season with strikeouts in over 20% of his plate appearances. The reason for optimism is simple -- he continues to keep his head above water while being promoted by the O's and remaining one of the youngest players in the league, year-in and year-out. He will start 2012 at age 22, and could get a bump to Norfolk following a solid AFL campaign and provided he shows well in the Spring. A speed-first talent, Avery is among the fastest prospects in the system (along with Kyle Hudson and Glynn Davis -- all "80" runners on the 20/80 scouting scale). His heavy left/right split could spell a future as part of a platoon. If he can tighten-up his routes in center field, he should have easy value as a fourth outfielder. His ability to improve against lefties and to learn to more consistently ID off-speed will determine if he can become a regular at the highest level.

Ceiling: Average starting center fielder on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on first division team

_________________________________

Player: Ryan Adams
Position: second base/third base
Ht/Wt: 5-11/185
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 24y7m
2011 level(s): Triple-A Norfolk; MLB Baltimore
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Offensively, Adams will swing and miss a fair amount due to average bat speed, and top velocity will likely always give him trouble. But he keeps his swing simple and tight, and finds ways to get the barrel to the ball. His raw power is above-average, with potential average in-game applicability. He could carveout a spot as a 6 or 7 hitter in a first division line-up if he finds enough gaps and is able to produce 15 or so homeruns per year. Defensively, Adams still struggles with his footwork, though he has made strides in cleaning-up the set-up on his throws (which in turn has improved his play-to-play accuracy). He is the type of player that will always need to work to maintain an adequate defensive disposition, but could be making enough progress to be passable at either third base or second base. Adams could be adequate as an inexpensive bridge to Miclat, Hoes or Schoop, but probably profiles best as a bench bat and occasional starter at either second or third.

Ceiling: Fringe-average second baseman on first division team
Floor: Four-A
Projected: Useful bench player

_________________________________

Player: Glynn Davis
Position: center field
Ht/Wt: 6-3/170
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 19y11m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Glynn Davis ranked as the 16th best prospect in O's system this time last year -- a lofty spot considering he signed as an undrafted free agent out of Catonsville CC (Md.) earlier that summer. In his first full year of pro ball the center fielder made solid progress, showing well in the Gulf Coast and Aberdeen before making a one-game appearance with the Keys. The speedy Davis is a true "80" runner on the 20-80 scouting scale and shows enough feel to project as an average to above-average defender. He has begun to improved his approach this summer both offensively and defensively, but remains very much a work in progress. Davis is similar in body type to Hunter Pence, though he lacks Pence's current physicality. Offensively he good develop an average hit tool with fringe-average power, provided he continues to add strength. If he can develop an on-base approach, he could be useful as a #1 or #2 hitter capable of reaching base via infield hit and stretching extra bases as he works out the gaps. He'll need to mature, physically, but has time to do so. He should get the gig as starting center fielder in Delmarva next summer.

Ceiling: Average center fielder on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: 4th or 5th outfielder on 1st division team

_________________________________

Player: Eduardo Rodriguez
Position: left-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/175
B/T: L/L
Age at 11/2011: 18y7m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season A Aberdeen
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Eduardo Rodriguez does not have putaway stuff, but there is a chance for three workable pitches and he had them all on display through his ten starts and one relief appearance in the 2011 GCL Orioles season. The 18-year old has a broad frame and thickening physique, which bodes well for his future physicality. His motion is generally loose and easy, coming with a clean three-quarters release and staying under control throughout. He frequently fails to get on top of his breaking ball -- a pitch that will flash some bite but for now looks like a future average offering due to rotation and plane. His fastball is an upper-80s offering that bumps 91/92 mph, and he can spot it to both sides of the plate. His change-up has the potential to outdistance his breaker as his go-to secondary offering, and he shows feel for it at an early stage. Rodriguez likely tops out as a mid-rotation arm, more likely to fall somewhere in the back-end of a rotation. None of his offerings project to plus right now, but his fastball and off-speed could grade out as above-average as he continues to refine

Ceiling: #3 starter on first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: #4/#5 starter on first division team

Player: Michael Wright
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-5/195
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y10m
2011 level(s): Rookie GCL Orioles; Short-season Aberdeen; Class A Delmarva
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference
Overall Future Potential: 44-48
Prospect Grade: C+

*Click here for primer on Grades

Discussion:
Mike Wright started seven games for Aberdeen but may fit better as a sinker/slider reliever, long term, in spite of his workhorse build. He has a short arm circle on the back side and low arm slot, creating a tough angle for hitters to try and square his sinker/slider combo. His sinker is a low-90s offering that can bump mid-90s in short stints, and his slider compliments it well. He spots both pitches to both sides of the plate. His offspeed lags behind in development, and will likely be a focus for 2012. If he can develop a useful change to go with a solid sinker/slider combo, he could top out as a mid-rotation innings-eater.

Ceiling: #3/#4 starter on a first division team
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Middle-relief arm

Reviewing the 2011 Collegiate Diamonds By the Numbers

2011-12-05T06:30:00.000-05:00

Last year I took a very simple approach to finding potentially undervalued talent. This was my criteria:

Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)

For a player to be noted, they had to hit on each category. Such a simple foundation will probably be fraught with error, but I will go on and evaluate how well it is working. I won't discuss Anthony Rendon because...well... don't think we really need to follow someone who Baseball America ranked as the best prospect in last year's draft.

Rob Kral
C/1B, College of Charleston

Kral improved on his 16th round selection in 2010 by being taken by the San Diego Padres in the 10th round this past year. He wound up playing 14 games in the Arizona Rookie League. Twelve of those games were as a catcher. I am unsure how well he caught, but teams were averaging about 2.5 stolen bases per game with him catching one out of nine base runners. Although this is a very thin analysis, it appears his first taste of the pro game behind the plate has left him with a great margin for improvement if he wishes to stay there. Otherwise, he did quite well with a 275/463/425 line. It will be interesting to see how he fares against more accomplished players instead of the smattering of high school and college signees you find in Rookie ball these days.

Joe Panik
SS, St. John's

Panik was seen by many as a supplement round or second round talent. He would up being selected by the San Francisco Giants with the 29th selection in the first round. He signed relatively quickly and played short-season ball. He did well at the plate with a line of 341/401/467. Baseball America ranked him as the fourth best prospect in his league. Although at a higher level than Kral, I think it is still important to note that these two players may be able to take advantage of pitchers at this level. Having high plate discipline and a solid contact rate will often translate into good production at these lower levels where even the best pitchers have poor command of their offerings. Regardless, it is nice to see the first two picks to have done well so far.

Dan Gamache
2B/3B, Auburn

Gamache was taken in the 6th round by the Pittsburgh Pirates. That is likely before when I would have taken him as I am not completely sure about my criteria and none of the people I talk to had Gamache ranked in their top 300. The Pirates did though. He signed early and played 6 games in Rookie ball and 20 in short season A ball. He appeared advanced for Rookie ball and overwhelmed at short season. His line was 231/292/338. I still have faith in him being a better player than this.

Taylor Dugas
OF, Alabama

Dugas was selected in the 8th round by the Chicago Cubs, but decided to go back to school for his senior year.

Matt Duffy
3B, Tennessee

Duffy was selected in the 20th round by the Houston Astros. He wound up playing 63 games in short season ball with a final line of 298/370/417. He showed good contact, an above average plate discipline, and the hope that his many doubles may turn into a few more home runs. It was a very solid debut by a 20th round selection.

Matt Skole
3B, Georgia Tech

Matt Skole was drafted by the Washington Nationals in the fifth round and wound up earn Baseball America's respect by ranking him as the 13th best prospect in the New York Penn League. His final line was 290/382/438. He showed good contact, discipline, and power. None of which was great, but all were solid.

Players that just missed the criteria:

Levi Michael
MIF, North Carolina

The Twins selected Michael with the 30th pick in the 2011 draft. He did not play as a professional last year.

David Chester
1B, Pittsburgh

Chester did not qualify under the criteria set above have barely missed the contact rate portion. He was chosen by the Red Sox in the 33rd round and played rookie ball last year. He has continued to show good power, but has not been able to earn walks and has been having issues with contact rate. His line is 243/305/450. If I ran a draft (which it is probably a good thing I do not), Chester would have been a pick for me in the 20s along with several non-draftees: Ross Heffley, Rob Lind, Mark Micowski.

Bobby Valentine Did Not Invent the Sandwich Wrap

2011-12-05T05:29:00.000-05:00

Bobby Valentine claims he invented the sandwich wrap. The story goes that Bobby decided to use a tortilla instead of bread on his menu for a restaurant he founded in 1980. Of course, flatbread sandwiches long predate 1980 as tortillas and pitas have been used for sandwiches in Central America and the Mediterranean for decades if not centuries. The distinction for the sandwich wrap though is that a sandwich traditionally made with slices of bread is instead made with a tortilla.

It is a statement that is too good to be true and it is. In June 28, 1976's Desert News print a short blurb about pita bread and how you can use it to make regular sandwiches like cold cuts. It also states that if you wish to give it a "taco-take off" to use a tortilla. You can actually find earlier mentions of diet tips about replacing regular bread with pitas for sandwich's, but that 1976 column is the earliest I found mention of use a tortilla as a bread replacement. You can also find earlier mentions of people using pitas for tuna sandwiches (1973) or lettuce to wrap their burgers. Clearly the 70s were a time of extensive sandwich experimentation.

If one wishes to find an earlier functional incarnation of the sandwich wrap, we can look at this patent that was awarded in 1931. The inventor was primarily concerned with creating a no mess sandwich and invented a tool to accomplish it. It is a loaf hollower instead of a true wrap, but the basic idea is there for a wrap. Combine the desire to create a sandwich that can contain juices and condiments with the increasing presence of tortillas in American restaurants and groceries...the idea that the sandwich wrap was invented in 1980 seems unlikely. A better search feature than Google News would be able to find some mention of tortilla wrapped sandwiches that predate the 1976 column mentioned above.

I think we can silence Bobby Valentine's claim. Someone might want to revise Wikipedia too as most organizations seemed to use that as their source to explore the claim.

---

I do believe that I invented the apple and cola drink back in 1985. As a six year old I decided it to be a good idea to mix apple juice and coke on a 1:1 ratio that was imbibed by using a medicine dropper. I remember it tasting fantastic. After 20 years, I tried it again and it did not resurrect that fond memory. I would like to see someone actually enjoy my invention because I certainly do not.

Orioles' Payroll Flexibility

2011-12-04T06:00:00.000-05:00

Over the past ten years, the Orioles team payroll has varied considerably. It has been as high at 93.3MM in 2007 and as low as 51.6MM in 2004. Last season, the club came in at 86.9MM and that is probably a good line for considering what the payroll could be next year and, perhaps, over the next few years. That would be good for the 15th highest payroll in baseball. The take home message there is that while the team is not poor, it is in no position to buy themselves into contention as long as we assume that there are no further streams of revenue to increase spending.

The Orioles have a bit of flexibility in their payroll. In 2012, they are obligated to pay five players 42.4MM: Nick Markakis (12.35MM), Brian Roberts (10MM), Mark Reynolds (7.833MM), J.J. Hardy (7.417MM), and Kevin Gregg (5.8MM). They also have several players in line for arbitration for 28MM: Luke Scott (3rd arb; est. 6.2MM), Jeremy Guthrie (3rd arb; est. 7MM), Adam Jones (2nd arb; est. 7MM), Darren O'Day (2nd arb; est. 1.2MM), Jim Johnson (2nd arb; est. 2MM), Jeremy Accardo (2nd arb; 1.1MM), JoJo Reyes (1st arb, est. 1MM), Brad Bergesen (1st arb., est. 1MM), and Robert Andino (1st arb., est. 1.5MM). That commits roughly 70.4MM for the 2012 season and leaves around 17MM left to improve the team.

This tells us two things:

There is supposedly not much money left over to improve the team.
70.4MM does not get you much to start with.

In the future, things are likely to get worse. Markakis' salary increase another 3MM, Roberts is around through 2013, Mark Reynolds has an 11MM team option, Guthrie and Scott become free agents, and there are a number of arbitration cases. Jones enters into his final arbitration day in 2013 where his salary may go as high as 10MM from the 3.25MM he saw last year. Johnson and Andino may see their arbitration values rise significantly if they wind up with the increase in playing time as a starting pitcher and starting infielder, respectively. Finally, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, and Tommy Hunter become arbitration eligible. It would not be surprising if the Orioles are at 87MM before entertaining a single free agent. It could be argued that the ability to bring on a high price free agent would not present itself until 2014 at the earliest. Brian Roberts' contract would open up a great deal of money, but that cash might be flipped over to Adam Jones.

As Dan Duquette has mentioned, the Orioles are going t have to be able to make the most of the non-premier free agent market. That includes finding potential players like Mike Antonelli. However, this model is more and more difficult because other teams are doing and have done the same thing. Somehow, Duquette has to make up for lost ground and then become an industry leader in finding what others are overlooking.

How Much is Jeremy Guthrie Worth?

2011-12-03T09:34:00.002-05:00

It has been mentioned by quite a few that Dan Duquette is entertaining offer for Jeremy Guthrie. However, a major issue with Guthrie is that the team wants pitching to come back in return. This sounds foolish and wrong headed, but this is exactly what happened when Koji Uehara was dealt. A starting pitcher (depending on your definition of a starting pitcher) and a buy low corner infielder came back in return. Guthrie is one face value worth more than Koji as he is a starter. Guthrie will also cost more than Koji (~7MM vs 4MM).

What is Jeremy Guthrie worth?

From 2007-2011, Guthrie is the pitchers with the most losses in baseball with 65. The top ten behind Guthrie is Derek Lowe (64), Paul Maholm (62), Bronson Arroyo/Barry Zito (61), Matt Cain (60), Livan Hernandez (59), and John Danks/Edwin Jackson/Fausto Carmona (56). The next slot at 55 is James Shields and Wandy Rodriguez with Mark Buerhle at 53 behind them. I think the basic point when looking at this is when the electronic and media furor questions the worth of Jeremy Guthrie, the losingest pitcher of the last half decade, it rings analytically lazy.

The bulk of Guthrie's losses have been over the past three years with 17, 14, and 17. That looks bad, but you also have to consider his team. The Baltimore Orioles have been an awful team. They have been awful offensively and defensively. During that stretch, only 2009 looks bad for Jeremy Guthrie when he earned a 1.3 fWAR. It was the only time in his past five years that he had an fWAR under two.

For all intents and purposes, let us say that Guthrie will have his second worst season ever and produce a 2 fWAR. That would put his value around 10 MM. He would also be worth a 12 MM offer next year and therefore could bring back a draft pick that would be worth about 2 MM. With a 2012 cost of 7 MM, I see that as 3-5 MM in surplus value.

What does 5 MM get you?

Victor Wang determined the value for different prospects. The numbers are a bit dated, but not by much as he did account for inflation that wound up not happening in baseball due to the economic stall out and drop. I do not agree with his methods though as they take averages of value. I think risk plays a greater role here and there should be a discount. I would not go as far as to suggest using the median as that ignores the potential to have a player who achieves star status. That said, I would probably take Wang's values, adjust them for today's market, and simply cut them in half. It is not a very elegant method, but one that feels more in line with hypothetical value vs. more certain value.

With that in mind, I see Guthrie worth a back end top 100 pitching prospect or two second tier pitching prospects. The Orioles could also look toward manipulating the value and bringing back an MLB ready arm that has unfulfilled upside and is a change of scenery player. That is what Tommy Hunter was in the Uehara deal. Hunter's unfulfilled upside though is that of maybe a 3 slot pitcher on a second division team if we are being kind. That has use because teams need those kinds of players to round out the innings, but it was something the Rangers could afford to lose as they needed better performance out of the bull pen.

Potential Deals?

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels have been rumored to be in contact about Guthrie, but he appears to be Plan B or C. Tyler Chatwood would have been a target, but he was deal in the Ianetta deal. Other MLB ready arms to look at would be journeyman Jerome Williams or the potentially dependable Garrett Richards. Michael Kohn could be an interesting arm in the pen if Jerome Williams was the MLB ready arm as Kohn can hold his own in a pen right now.

Texas Rangers
The Rangers need an MLB ready arm to fill in for the absence of CJ Wilson and they have built up a strong working relatonship with the Os. Scott Feldman would be the MLB ready arm here. He is at best a back end starter for second division team and really only has one good season to his name. Feldman is also costing about 4 or 5 MM after arbitration. I could see Feldman paired with Cody Buckel or Tanner Scheppers. Both of those pitchers are prospects with a mid-rotation ceiling, but a strong middle relief floor. Personally, I'd want Robbie Ross and Christian Villanueva as a good southpaw prospect and a corner infielder with some breakout potential.

Washington Nationals
The Nationals would be helped by being able to provide a veteran boost to their starting rotation and fill the role Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis have provided. A problem though with this matchup is that the Nationals do not have many tweener starting pitchers that could be a buy low proposition for the Orioles. It could also be argued that with Strasburg, Peacock, Zimmerman, Detwiler, and Lannan among other they already have enough depth.

St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals have been rumored to be on Mark Buerhle, but the Albert Pujols sweepstakes is locking up a great deal of their ability to spend. Jeremy Guthrie may prove to be a good secondary option for them. Setup man Lance Lynn I would think would be the guy the Os would zero in on. He works in the low 90s as a starter and mid 90s as a reliever. He would provide the Os with a player with a solid base as they try to make a starter out of him.

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have Yonder Alonso and no place to play him. The Orioles could find him a place at first with Mark Reynolds returning to third or going to left field or even DHing. They could also add another fringe piece like a Nolan Reimold and see if they could wedge Edinson Volquez out. I think the Reds would be better off just making Volquez into a reliever. I think Guthrie would be a great fit for the Reds.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have a good number of older pieces and high upside young players. The only pitcher I could see meeting the Orioles' needs is Nate Eovaldi. He profiles more as a reliever, but the Dodgers are trying to use him to spell a rotation slot. The Orioles could take back Juan Uribe to offset cash costs, but would likely get a prospect added. Chris Withrow would be who I would want as the added prospect. He has been passed by other arms in the system, but has a plus breaking ball and can produce high heat.

Conclusion
With the new CBA rules, Guthrie's value is at its highest now as any team who trades for him would not be able to pull back compensation draft picks. If he is dealt now, the receiving team will receive that protection. That single item has a value of about 2 MM attached to it. As much as Guthrie means to the team with his mid rotation arm, he likely has more value being dealt out to another team. The hope is the Orioles do not sell themselves short as they may have done in the Uehara deal by chase 'now' value as opposed to seeking 'future' value.

Cup of jO's (December 2, 2011): O's and Yoenis Cespedes

2011-12-02T11:04:00.009-05:00

Taking a break from the Orioles Top 25 Prospect list, this morning I wanted to give a quick write-up on Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes -- the top international free agent currently on the market (technically, he will not hit the market until his residency is officially established in the Dominican Republic). Baltimore was recently linked to Cespedes by Roch Kubatko at MASN, who wrote on Wednesday that the O's were "interested in Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and will watch him work out in the Dominican Republic."

While Cespedes has been closely followed by international evaluators for the last five years, average baseball fans were made aware of his presence this November when his "publicity video" went viral on YouTube (a copy of the video available here), leading to drums of e-ink being spilled by sportswriters around the net. He has been a fixture on the Cuban National Team and was rated by Baseball America as the sixth best prospect at the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Putting aside the likelihood of Cespedes electing to sign with Baltimore, is he a target Baltimore should consider? To answer that question as best we can we must look at two items: 1) his skillset and projection, and 2) his likely price.

Scouting Snippet

I haven't seen enough of Cespedes to stand firmly behind a full evaluation -- really my exposure has been limited to video feeds and television broadcasts from international tournaments. The following is my take based on about six or seven in-game views, so assign the requisite level of weight to these thoughts. Also, be sure to crosscheck this report with whatever you can find at BaseballAmerica.com, who routinely leads the pack in coverage of international talents.

Physical Description:
Listed 5-foot-10, 200-pounds. Thick, strong, athletic build. Broad chest and wide, strong hips and trunk. Agility and explosiveness to excess. Moves very well underway; can drag out of the box.

Hitting:
Cespedes's calling card is power and he has lots and lots of it. Because of his physical strength, particularly his monster core, he does not need much load or seperation to give his barrel time to accelerate. With a basic, fairly compact swing he is able to produce enough torque to drive the ball out from pole-to-pole. He doesn't need to sell out for homeruns, but his approach in the box can noticeably falter when he gets too focused on trying to force hard contact. This isn't evident in a loss of balance, head pull, or leak, but you will see some backside collapse at times and, more often, he'll extend early and come around the ball, creating holes and some lag in the barrel. There is significant bat wrap, but he seems to overcome it with his bat speed. Raw power grades at a 65, though his in-game realization could be closer to 55 against advanced MLB arms. Hitting could be anywhere from a 40 to a 55 depending on how capable he proves at making adjustments at the Major League level.

Fielding:
Cespedes has more than enough footspeed to cover gap-to-gap in center, and shows a very good drop-step back on balls. He isn't a natural fielder, but shows comfort in the outfield. He can try to do too much at times, and could possibly benefit from pro instruction as to how to play more within his tools -- not getting overly aggressive with his throws and setting up his routes a little better. His arm is an easy 60, though his accuracy can come and go due to his set-up and arm action. I would have no issue believing his glove can grade as a 60 if told so by someone who has spent more time sitting on him, but my limited views lead me to give a more conservative 50 grade.

Summary:
Cespedes is a difficult assignment for evaluators. His physical tools are phenominal, and he has a track record of performing against high level competition (albeit inconsistent and varying talent levels from player to player) both in Cuba and through international tournaments. Still, there is a large degree of uncertainty as to how a player in his situation ultimately reacts to the change in culture, lifestyle, on-field pressure and media scrutiny when making the adjustment from life in Cuba to life as a professional baseball player in the United States.

The safest course of action is likely providing him the opportunity to spend at least half of a season at Triple-A, allowing him to adjust to the pro game outside of the national broadcasts and nightly highlight wraps that accompany MLB games. With limited looks, it is very difficult to wager a guess as to the likelihood that Cespedes is suited to make the transition to the Majors with his production intact. For purposes of this exercise, we'll slap a consertive grade report as follows:

Hit: 45
Power: 55/60
Speed: 60
Arm: 60
Fielding: 45/50
Feel: 45
OFP: 52-56

*Click here for primer on Grades

What we have, for purposes of this exercise, is a potential first division starting center fielder, with some risk that he will not make enough contact for his power to fully emerge at the highest level.

Price Tag

Aroldis Chapman currently holds the record for initial contract given to a Cuban defector, with the Reds handing him a deal $30.25 million over six years. Cespedes figures to easily eclipse that contract, and is rumored to be looking for more than $60 million over six years. At 26-years old, he is entering his physical prime, with his signing Major League team getting his best years for the term of their investment. Significant interest from some potentially big spending clubs (including the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies and Nationals) would seem to all but ensure a big pay day for the standout Cuban outfielder -- for purposes of this exercise we will use a conservative estimate of $60 million over six years. Keep in mind that if Cespedes ends-up at Triple-A for three months, you are eating away part of the value of that first year -- in effect driving the annual price up to around $11 million a year.

Conclussion

Our "scouty" report projects Cespedes to a solid to above-average first division starter, and his upside is that of a five-tooled multiple all-star talent. A 6/60 deal for that type of player would seem to be a steal, particularly for a player entering his best four or five years of production and physicality. The sixty-million dollar question, however, is one of probability.

While evaluators can find comfort in Cespedes's successful track record in Cuba and on the international scene, it is a tall order to ask that evaluator to stake $60 million dollars, maybe more, on that production translating against the best competition in the world. Add to that an inconsistent track record for Cuban defectors and the larger issue of cultural adjustments and the ability to perform under the weight of the media scrutiny and expectations that accompany a record-setting contract, and the evaluator's task of filing a suggested price starts to more closely resemble a game of darts (skilled darts, but darts nonetheless).

Ultimately, for Baltimore, the likelihood is that so long as the big spenders remain interested the price tag will be problematic when considering the risk you are taking on. Additionally, the Orioles may be looking at a situation where they are forced to overpay the market in order to convince Cespedes to turn down a better competitive and higher profile situation in New York, or perhaps a more Cubano-centric situation in a city like Miami.

Cespedes is worth a long look from Baltimore, and the return on investment has a chance to be the type of "hit" that the Orioles will need to have if the organization hopes to turn things around any time soon. Unfortunately, the potential of having $10 million or so tied-up in a fringe-average regular (if things don't break right for Cespedes in his transition), in addition to the combined approximately $47.5 million owed to Roberts and Markakis over the next two seasons, and escalating prices for Baltimore's arbitration-eligible youngsters, could severely limit spending in any other areas, including extending some of the younger Birds.

Were Baltimore a more complete team at the Major League level, or a more wealthy team in terms of prospects in their system, this may be a risk worth taking. But the Birds need to focus inward on systemic changes before a high risk/high reward investment like Cespedes makes sense.

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #10 Dan Klein

2011-11-30T12:00:00.005-05:00

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

Player: Dan Klein
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-2/190
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 23y3m
2011 level(s): Advanced-A Frederick; Double-A Bowie
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 50 (50)
Fastball: 50 (50)
Curveball: 50 (55)
Change: 50 (50/55)
Slider: 40 (45)
Control: 50 (60)
Command: 50 (55)
Feel: 50/55 (55)
Overall Future Potential: 46-52
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2010 Draft, out of UCLA, and signed for almost $499,900. Multi-sport athlete in high school and national level prospect in both baseball and football. Missed sophomore year at UCLA after shoulder surgery and pitched exclusively in relief thereafter.

Physical Description:
Broad upper-body, well developed and tapered to a medium waist. Athletic build. Durable physique but history of shoulder issues. Good athleticism and body control.

Motion:
Klein utilizes a simple step-in motion, staying udner control and repeating well. He shows a quick arm with fairly easy action, though he comes close to a hard stab, dropping the ball low to his hip before entering a semi-short arm circle. There is potential for some shoulder strain with that pairing, and with his shoulder surgery in 2009, and now again in 2011, it is worth monitoring. He stays relatively quick to home, often clocking sub-1.3s on the watch.

Stuff:
Fastball - Klein gets good life on his fastball, running it in on righties with late action. It generally sits 91-93 mph and can come with good bore. He spots it well to each side and shows an understanding of how to use it to set-up his curve, change and slider, depending on the situation.

Curve - a 12-to-6 breaker, Klein's curve is at its best when he throws it in the 76-78 mph range, getting solid shape and depth. He can use it as a freeze pitch but is most effective at this point when he buries it. Klein shows a high level of comfort with wthe offering, and there is enough spin to project it as a potential above-average pitch.

Change-up - Klein's change is generally 85-86 mph, showing drop and even some late fade. It is most effective down in the zone and he has found some success working it under the hands against lefties. The pitch was inconsistent at UCLA, turning flat and hittable up in the zone, but he has since improved his execution. A feel pitch, he will need to demonstrate his latest trip to the surgeon has not set him back.

Slider - The least effective of his offerings, Klein's slider is an 84-86 mph breaker with below average depth and bite. It works well as a change of pace pitch with tilt, breaking opposite his change and inducing soft contact. Like his change, when he misses the pitch it is hittable, though that doesn't stop him from getting aggressive with it. His arm speed produces plenty of spin, so reps should help the pitch reach Major League average in time.

Discussion:
2011 started about as well as it could for Klein, as he breezed through Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie with little trouble. Throwing exclusively from the pen, Klein utilized his four pitch mix effectively in posting a SO/9 rate of 10.3 and SO/BB rate of 6.17 over 32.1 innings. Unfortunately, his season ended prematurely in June due to tenderness in his shoulder. He was shut down and underwent surgery to repair a SLAP tear in his right labrum.

Regardless of Klein's timetable for return, this setback is a major blow to Baltimore's plans to transition the former UCLA closer to the rotation. Klein has yet to surpass 52 innings in a season since he did so between his high school junior spring and summer, back in 2006. He will pitch most of 2012 as a 24-year old, and it would likely be another three years before he builds up the arm strength and endurance necessary to log 150+ innings.

When healthy, Klein is essentially ready to tackle Major League hitters in a limited relief role. He lacks the putaway stuff to make him a viable shutdown arm, but his solid pitchability and stable of average or above offerings could make him an above-average reliever with 8th inning potential. His health will be the primary determinant in how Klein ultimately develops, and his setbacks in this department are the primary discounting factor in his OFP grade of 46-52.

Ceiling: Late-inning reliever
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Useful middle reliever

A second look at Yu Darvish

2011-11-30T06:11:00.000-05:00

A few weeks back we looked at how to translate Yu Darvish's performance in the Japanese Player's League to Major League Baseball. That projection system put Darvish as being capable of throwing an FIP of 2.82 in a league average environment. That is rather exceptional and seemed unrealistic. Instead, after looking at the limited data I had at hand...I suggested that he looked more like a 3.50 FIP pitcher. A couple issue with the translation is that it was based on three data points and those three data points were awfully successful data points with greater weight being given to the pitchers who threw more innings. In other words, there was a bit of a survivor bias.

To make a different and potential better system, I compared that model's prediction to the actual performance of six recent transitions from JPL to MLB: Hiroki Kuroda. Dice-K, Kenshin Kawakami, Colby Lewis, Koji Uehara, and Ryota Igarashi. These six pitchers were given equal weight in the translation. Last time, I present the coefficients as values to divide. This time to make things less confusing in the future, these values are to be multiplied by the JPL numbers.

Original System Coefficients
K - 0.93
BB - 1.81
HR - 1.24

New System Coefficients
K - 0.98
BB - 2.6
HR - 1.93

15th Percentile Coefficients
K - 0.83
BB - 3.34
HR - 2.53

85th Percentile Coefficients
K - 1.13
BB - 1.83
HR - 1.33

One of the improvements here is that we now have a range that covers 70% of the possible outcomes. Here is what Darvish's projections look like now over 200 IP:

15th percentile - 177 K, 137 BB, 15 HR, 4.49 FIP
50th percentile - 209 K, 106 BB, 12 HR, 3.47 FIP
85th percentile - 240 K, 75 BB, 8 HR, 2.43 FIP

If Darvish maintains this performance over five years, these are the following WARs and associated values he would be worth:

15th percentile - 5.9 WAR, 29.5 MM
50th percentile - 13.9 WAR, 69.5 MM
85th percentile - 24 WAR, 120 MM

It appears that my first approximation of Darvish's value may have been a bit bullish. It was based on an aggressive projection and an aggressive assumption on contract inflation (about 10% as opposed to my normal 5% assumption). That said, it was a pretty decent approximation of value given that I did not think long about it. Now, I would say the a more reasonable approximation would be some a mix of 70 MM between the posting fee and a five year deal.

What will make it worth Yu Darvish's time?

Darvish made 6.6 MM last year for the Nippon Ham Fighters. If he does not agree to a contract after this year or next, Darvish would be a free agent after the 2013 season. If he was to stay in Japan, he could see 13 MM over the next two years and then come across the Pacific as a free agent. If he maintains his play, he should be worth about 15 MM in the open market. Over five years, he could earn 58 MM. If I was his agent, I would be floating 12 MM per year as what to expect in order to sign a contract, but be willing to accept something as low as 45 MM. There has to be some concern about getting injured in the next couple years.

Suggested move to get Darvish:
30 MM posting fee / 5 years, 40 MM

Likely move to get Darvish:
50 MM posting fee / 5 years, 50 MM

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #9 Clayton Schrader

2011-11-29T16:00:00.000-05:00

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

Player: Clayton Schrader
Position: right-handed pitcher
Ht/Wt: 6-0/200
B/T: L/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y7m
2011 level(s): Class A Delmarva; Advanced-A Frederick
2011 statistics: Baseball-reference; Minor League Central

Grades - Now (Future):
Motion: 35 (40/45)
Fastball: 50 (60)
Slider: 45 (55/60)
Curveball: 40 (45/50)
Change: Not scouted
Control: 25/30 (40)
Command: 20/25 (35/40)
Feel: 35/40 (45/50)
Overall Future Potential: 46-52
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
Drafted in the 10th Round of the 2010 Draft, out of San Jacinto College(Texas), and signed for overslot bonus of $300,000.

Physical Description:
Broad build, wide hips. Strong, especially in core and trunk. Some room to firm up physique and improve conditioning.

Motion:
Schrader throws from an elevated three-quarters arm slot and matches it well with his fastball and breaking balls. Because he doesn't pair the slot with a corresponding tilt, there is some concern for future shoulder injury (though that is off course dependent on the structural specifics of his joint). His delivery, which produces mid-90s velocity, comes with a lot of effort, including a rigid landing and extreme head whack and arm recoil to finish. The result is well below average control and a limited number of pitches in his arm per appearance. While he will be able to smooth out his landing some, much of his mechanics "are what they are," and Baltimore will likely take the good (loud stuff) with the bad (control and limited profile).

Stuff:
Fastball - Big plus offering that runs low- to mid-90s with some life. Schrader will spray the strikezone with the pitch, but has little command to spots.

Slider - Mid-80s offering with hard bite and tilt. Arm slot deception and true swing-and-miss ability. Potential plus offering down the line.

Curve - Downer 78 to 82 mph offering utilized more at San Jacinto than in 2011. Serves as a useful counter to his harder offerings due to velocity delta.

Change-up - Not scouted.

Discussion:
"Clay Shray" is a big arm with big control issues at present, though a slightly softer landing can help him keep his momentum more consistently to home and prevent some off his swing-around. While his arm angle raises some potential red flags from a biomechanical standpoint, it helps him to create a solid downhill plane, even with his listed 6-foot frame. He does an adequate job of hitting his slot consistently and just needs to find a way to stay in the zone with a little more frequency.

While the walk rate is the critique most likely to be touched upon in internet reports, he should be able to survive with 4+ BB/9 at the Major League level due to his ability to minimize baserunning threats by missing bats. That said, he will walk hitters and, like Fernando Rodney, may actually fit better in the closer role than as a 7th or 8th inning arm. This would allow him to enter the majority of his games with clean bases and would help to minimize the potential damage resulting from his inevitable base-on-balls.

Perhaps most important, Baltimore will need Schrader to work on his endurance. While the effort in his delivery causes control issues, the drain on his energy is perhaps more impactful. He is noticeably less effective the more pitches he hangs on his arm per appearance, and as a result Baltimore endeavored to keep him from appearing on back-to-back days. Double-A Bowie will represent his first true pro challenge and will help to ground his projection. If he is able to maintain his power stuff on back-to-back days, and can clean-up his mechanics enough to get his BB/9 down between 4 and 5, he could be a useful bullpen piece in Baltimore as early as the second half of next year. He has the upside profile of a Jorge Julio.

Ceiling: Late-inning reliever
Floor: Non-prospect
Projected: Useful middle reliever

2012 Top 25 Prospects: #8 Jason Esposito

2011-11-29T11:30:00.001-05:00

Follow us on Twitter: @CamdenDepot

Player: Jason Esposito
Position: third base
Ht/Wt: 6-2/205
B/T: R/R
Age at 11/2011: 21y4m
2011 level(s): N/A
2011 statistics: N/A

Grades - Now (Future):
Hit: 35 (40/45)
Power: 40 (45/50)
Arm: 60 (60)
Defense: 55 (65)
Speed: 45 (40)
Feel: 50 (50/55)
Overall Future Potential: 46-52
Prospect Grade: B-

*Click here for primer on Grades

Background:
2nd Round selection in the 2011 draft, out of Vanderbilt University. Signed for overslot bonus of $600,000. Previously drafted and unsigned in 2008 by Kansas City.

Physical Description:
Solid, athletic build. Wide hips with strong trunk and core. Pro body with little projection left, but should be able to tighten physique as he finishes maturing.

Hitting:
Espo takes with him to the plate a solid approach, including a good feel for the strikezone. His swing is compact and he covers the quadrants fairly well. There is enough strength in his wrists to allow him to transfer power from his core to the bat, and he shows that pop by producing hard contact from pole-to-pole. Esposito's bat speed is the primary chink in his armor, and he has struggled mightily when armed with lumber against more advanced competition on the Cape and with Team USA. An issue tangential to his bat speed is pitch-ID. Because he needs to start his swing early to catch-up with better velocity, good off-speed offerings can give him trouble. Additionally, he utilizes a medium-high leg kick in his stride, which cuts into his ability to adjust his timing on the fly.

Defense:
Esposito shows easy footwork and soft hands straight on, though his lower-half can drag some on the move. This makes third base the best fit for him, and the former Vandy infielder has enough arm to man the hot corner at the Major League level. There is enough athleticism in Espo's game to allow him to hold down second base if so required, and he could even play a passable shortstop in an emergency (though extended exposure there would like prove his range and footwork to be lacking at the outer reaches of his zone). He is a below-average runner but moves well enough to cover an outfielder corner, completing his profile as a potential utility talent.

Discussion:
Esposito was a highly touted high schooler and a high follow entering his junior year at Vanderbilt in spite of back-to-back uninspiring summers on the Cape and a half-summer with USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team. His stock took a hit when his spotty offensive performance with the new BBCOR bats (which have a smaller sweetspot and less trampoline than the previous composite bats) forced evaluators to consider more strongly his average bat speed, and whether his impressive sophomore year with the 'Dores would eventually resurface in pro ball.

Despite the questions surrounding his offensive game, Esposito boasts a reasonably high floor off the strength of his glove. He can get a little clunky when forced to operate on the move and at the edge of his range, but could be a true standout defender if allowed to focus his efforts at third base. His pivots and footwork around the bag are solid, and his hands and approach will allow him to provide value at second base, as well as shortstop in a limited capacity, should Baltimore need him to log innings across the infield.

Esposito's well documented struggles to perform with wood, as well as the not-insignificant decrease in OBP (.453 to .403), SLG (.599 to .530), and BB/SO rate (0.97 to 0.38) from his sophomore to junior year, all raise questions about whether or not he will hit enough at the upper-levels to justify an everyday spot on a first division team. The glove could be double-plus quality at third, but he will need to find a way to barrel more off-speed pitches. He has enough raw power that he could be a 15-20 homerun bat if he squares-up enough balls.

Ceiling: Average third baseman on first division team
Floor: Four-A placeholder or injury insurance
Projected: Utility infielder/outfielder

The Orioles are a Small Market Team

2011-11-28T05:57:00.000-05:00

That title probably brought a number of you here to read this column and tell me how I am wrong. Not only wrong, I imagine some of you might call me blinded by Dan Duquette's words over the past few weeks that suggest he considers the team a small market ballclub ("I learned in a small market, I applied my skills in a small market, to put together a top-quality team").

Mind you, I did not feel that Baltimore was a small market town. I have always bought into the idea of the Orioles being a sleeping baseball giant as Peter Gammons used to say. However, my own personal journey challenging that thought emerged as I began as I began traveling around to other cities. I began to realize how small Baltimore is and how much of the city is probably not all that interested in baseball or inclined to spend money on it. Add that to some of the money from corporations, perhaps, being siphoned off to the Nationals who are trying hard to be a well liked team (to varying success). At this point, I became comfortable with Baltimore being a mid-market town, which made sense with respect to information available on how money is dispersed in Major League Baseball. However, they calculate these things, the Orioles (in the few years available) were right in the middle neither giving or receiving much of anything.

Recently, Dan Duquette referred to the Orioles as a small market team in being introduced to the fan base and in several interviews thereafter. Are these valid statements? Have we been in a situation akin to the frog that sit in a pot of water slowly coming to boil? Do we not realize we are being boiled...or fading as a city of importance. It would seem to fit the motif of an old port and steel city that is being marginalized by outsourcing of materials and a trade deficit. It is also something that was harped on with the Wire.

My methodology was simple. I consulted four sources:

TV Market Size (Nielsen estimates, August 2011)
Radio Market Size (Arbitron Estimates, Fall 2011)
Population (2010 US Census)
Gross Domestic Product (2007-2009 Data, Dept of Commerce)

AL East Rankings

Baltimore
TV Market Rank: 27th
Radio Market Rank: 21st
Population Rank: 21st
GDP Rank: 19th

Boston
TV Market Rank: 7th
Radio Market Rank: 10th
Population Rank: 22nd
GDP Rank: 9th

New York
TV Market Rank: 1st
Radio Market Rank: 1st
Population Rank: 1st
GDP Rank: 1st

Tampa
TV Market Rank: 14th
Radio Market Rank: 19th
Population Rank: 55th
GDP Rank: 23rd

Toronto
(not in United States, so we have to use different sources)
TV Market Rank: Between 4th ranked Philadelphia and 5th ranked Dallas
Radio Market Rank: Between 14th ranked Seattle and 15th ranked Pheonix
Population Rank: Between 3rd ranked Chicago and 4th ranked Houston
GDP Rank: Between 11th ranked Miami and 12th ranked Seattle

Conclusion
The data tends to indicate that the Orioles are likely a low mid-market team or a high small market team. Camden Yards, a greater population, and a history probably helps the Orioles sustain a higher revenue than the Rays have. It also helps that the Orioles' regional market deal helps them siphon cash away from the potential gold mine of the Washington DC market. Of course, DC has had issues with properly supporting the team. The last time a DC team was dominant was probably back in the late 1860s and early 1870s when the Treasury Department bankrolled the team.

Back to Baltimore, we might have to get use to the idea that this team cannot spend as much money as teams in Arlington or Boston. The Orioles are at a competitive disadvantage and it makes it difficult for the team to succeed. It requires a top notch front office that is efficient with how it invests its money and that has not been the MO of the team over the past couple decades (or ever?). Even the great teams of the 60s and 70s were built on a foundation of out spending teams for bonus babies prior to the implementation of the draft.

The Orioles were big spenders back in the day, so how did their population size compare back then?

Baltimore does appear to have stabilized in population and one hopes the same is true about the amount of money the team is able to take in from the surrounding area. During the 1990s Baltimore began successfully (to a degree) shifting from blue collar to white collar commerce and production. The city is still well behind New York, Boston, and Toronto in terms of available money coming from media deals. I boiled it down to two things: (1) the Orioles are a threshold middle/small market team and (2) they are in a worst potential revenue market than three of the five teams in the AL East.